Game location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Arizona

Playing time/channel: 12:30 PM PT/3:30 PM ET (ESPN)

Spread: -3 (ASU)

Matchup history: 20-8 (Arizona State)

These two programs shared a conference at the WAC between 1962 and 1977. Arizona State won the majority of those older games. They won 15 of 16 games between 1949 and 1973. These two teams first played each other in 1935.

Lately, BYU has had the upper hand. The Cougars have won the last three in a row, including the last one in Provo in 2021. That was the famous “Tyler Allgeier punch” game. BYU won’t have much of a home field advantage in this game.

Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (2nd season)

2024 season to date

Arizona State entered the 2024 season, like BYU, with no hype and low expectations. While BYU was picked a lowly 13th in the preseason Big 12 media poll, the Sun Devils looked up to BYU when they were dead in the last 16th spot.

That was before the season started. Like BYU, they proved all the doubters wrong. They started 5-1, including wins over BYU’s last two opponents in Kansas and Utah. They just controlled the entire game against No. 20 Kansas State on the road, winning 24-14. Now they are in the driver’s seat. Like BYU, they control their own destiny for a Big 12 title game slot. The winner of this match will be in a near lock position for Arlington.

When Arizona State has the ball

ASU features one of the most exciting players in the entire Big 12 in running back Cam Skattebo. He is one of only four players in the conference to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in 2024. He is second in the conference and fourth in all FBS in total yards from scrimmage. The ASU offense runs straight through Skattebo. That’s where BYU needs to focus their energy, to slow him down somehow.

Even if they do, quarterback Sam Leavitt has been one of the more efficient passers in the conference. He has found receiver Jordyn Tyson for a touchdown nine times.

This could be BYU’s biggest test yet. Arizona State is as balanced on offense as any team in the conference.

When BYU has the ball

Let’s start by never doing a fade pass to the goal line again. In all seriousness, BYU needs to improve tremendously in the red zone. They can’t continue to average one offensive touchdown per game and expect to go very far. Jake Retzlaff has to take care of the ball, plain and simple. In the hostile environment they encounter in Tempe, things can snowball if the offense is dismissed. If he can stay ahead of the chains with some key throws to his talented receivers and maybe some big conversions with his legs, the Cougars will have an advantage.

The best medicine for all this is a solid run game. The offensive line should be up to the challenge of giving LJ Martin some running backs. Two of BYU’s best offensive performances this season, against Oklahoma State and UCF, saw Martin surpass 100 rushing yards. This feels like a game where it’s critical that Martin hits that benchmark, which means BYU is in control of the line of scrimmage.

How BYU can win

BYU may not even be able to afford any turnovers. This will be a hostile, hungry crowd. They, like BYU, may feel a berth in the Big 12 title game is close. This serves as the playoff game for the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington. The offense cannot afford to perform the way it has in the last two games.

BYU faces tough challenges on the road after fully laying an egg at home in Kansas. They are tested to the limit mentally and physically. Can BYU bounce back from that loss to win on the road against No. 21 ASU? That might be Kalani Sitake’s best work yet as head coach at BYU.

Prediction: Arizona State 27, BYU 20