The arguments about a three-loss SEC team in the 12-team College Football Playoff began even before the scenario presented itself.

Now it’s here.

The 13-member selection committee will have arguably its most difficult ranking of the season this week, when it has to determine how far to drop three-loss Alabama following its convincing loss to unranked Oklahoma.

(And you thought Indiana losing to Ohio State was going to be the story of the day.)

Here’s a look at the weekly prediction of what the top 25 might look like in the committee’s fourth set of rankings on Tuesday. Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it’s a snapshot of who’s in the driver’s seat now, based on what the teams have done to this point and how the committee has already evaluated them.

The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

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Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Ducks have four Big Ten road wins, three wins against CFP Top 25 teams, and should remain the committee’s No. 1 team coming off an off week. The Ducks’ head-to-head win against Ohio State looks even better after the Buckeyes beat Indiana. The committee will also continue to reward Oregon’s wins against No. 12 Boise State and No. 25 Illinois, which eked out a win against Rutgers.

Path to the playoff: Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game, and as long as the Ducks beat Washington on Saturday, they will earn either a first-round bye as the conference champion or a first-round home game as the Big Ten runner-up. Even if Oregon were to lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, it would be able to claim a regular-season win against the Big Ten champs. The picture could change, though, if Oregon suffers an upset in the regular-season finale against Washington. If that happens — and the Ducks don’t win the Big Ten — a two-loss Big Ten runner-up would fall into a playoff debate with a jumble of two-loss teams and other Power 4 conference runners-up.

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ convincing win against No. 5 Indiana gives them a second win against a CFP top-five team, along with beating No. 4 Penn State, but the Oct. 12 loss at Oregon will likely keep them at the No. 2 spot on Tuesday night. It helped Ohio State that Penn State was able to escape Minnesota with a win, because the Buckeyes are able to maintain the value of beating the Nittany Lions on the road on Nov. 2.

Path to the playoff: Ohio State still needs to beat rival Michigan in the regular-season finale to clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game. Assuming Ohio State plays Oregon for the Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes will almost certainly earn a spot in the CFP bracket — either as a conference champion with a first-round bye or as one of the seven at-large teams. Whether they would get a first-round home game as the Big Ten runner-up would depend on how they lost the game and how far they dropped. Beating Indiana was a major step, though, in becoming a near lock for the CFP.

Why they could be here: Selection committee chair Warde Manuel made it clear last week that the committee thinks Texas has earned its No. 3 spot in spite of the head-to-head loss to Georgia. That’s unlikely to change following the Longhorns’ win against Kentucky on Saturday. “They have a top-five defense,” Manuel said of Texas. “Quinn Ewers is leading one of the top passing offenses in the country. We just looked at them and came out with them at 3. It’s nothing against Georgia. Georgia is a great team, but they did struggle against Ole Miss at Ole Miss but had a great win (Nov. 16) against Tennessee.”

Path to the playoff: If the Longhorns beat Texas A&M in the regular-season finale, they will clinch a spot in the SEC title game and be a near lock — win or lose. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas has a 78% chance to beat Texas A&M and a 73% chance to finish 7-1 in SEC play. If Texas makes it to the SEC title game and loses, the Longhorns would still probably get in as a two-loss SEC runner-up. The bigger question is how far Texas would fall with a loss to the Aggies. At that point, it would make sense for the committee to drop the Longhorns below Georgia because the head-to-head result would be more glaring with identical two-loss records.

Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions were underwhelming in their 26-25 win at Minnesota, but the committee is leaning into the fact that Penn State’s only loss is by a touchdown to No. 2 Ohio State. It’s a better loss than Notre Dame (NIU) and Miami (Georgia Tech) have, and the Nittany Lions’ overall schedule (No. 35) is significantly better than one-loss Indiana’s (106). It helped Penn State last week that No. 25 Illinois snuck into the committee’s top 25 and won again on Saturday.

Path to the playoff: If Penn State beats Maryland on Saturday, it should be a lock for an at-large bid. The Nittany Lions do have an outside shot of making the Big Ten title game but would need help to get there.

Why they could be here: The Irish beat previously undefeated Army soundly, adding an important win to their résumé and possibly also knocking Army out of the committee’s top 25. It’s a bit of a Catch-22, as the committee will acknowledge that Army probably wasn’t as good of a win as its record indicated. While it’s possible the committee considers bumping the Irish up a notch ahead of Penn State, they don’t just move teams based on the latest result, and Notre Dame’s home loss to Northern Illinois remains a sticking point in the room. Notre Dame’s season-opening win against Texas A&M took another hit on Saturday after the Aggies lost in four overtimes to unranked Auburn.

Path to the playoff: The Irish are a win at USC away from locking up a spot in the playoff as one of the seven at-large teams. If Notre Dame loses, it will likely fall out of the playoff after a second bad loss to an unranked team.

Why they could be here: Miami’s Nov. 9 loss at Georgia Tech could continue to haunt it, as the selection committee will compare the common opponent with Georgia after next week. If Georgia beats rival Georgia Tech soundly in its regular-season finale, the committee could drop Miami behind Georgia and the two-loss SEC teams. While this wouldn’t impact Miami’s standing as a playoff team — or probably even its chances at a first-round bye — it would still impact the Canes’ overall ranking.

Path to the playoff: Miami will clinch a spot in the ACC championship game with a win at Syracuse on Saturday, and as long as the Canes win their league, they should earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. If Miami loses to SMU, though, its playoff hopes are likely over as the ACC runner-up because of the additional loss to Georgia Tech.

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were huge winners on Saturday, as they clinched a spot in the SEC title game after both Ole Miss and Alabama lost. It also paved the way for the committee to rank the Bulldogs ahead of both of those teams, rendering the head-to-head results moot for the first time. Georgia has three wins against CFP Top 25 teams (Texas, Clemson and Tennessee), but the SEC’s head-to-head results have loomed large in the committee meeting room until the records are no longer comparable.

Path to the playoff: Georgia can either earn a first-round bye as the SEC champion, or the selection committee will have to seriously consider a three-loss SEC team if the Bulldogs finish as runner-up. Because of Georgia’s strong résumé, the Bulldogs would still have a good chance to finish in the playoff even if they don’t win the SEC. If they lose to Texas, they would also be able to claim a regular-season win against the eventual SEC champs.

Why they could be here: The Vols got some help on Saturday. With Ole Miss and Indiana both losing, Tennessee should move up by default — not because it hammered UTEP 56-0. The head-to-head loss to Georgia will keep the Vols behind the Bulldogs.

Path to the playoff: As long as Tennessee doesn’t lose at Vanderbilt on Saturday — and that’s hardly a guarantee — the Vols should be in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day now that Ole Miss played itself out.

Why they could be here: This is expected to be a good discussion in the committee meeting room this week, because SMU has clinched a spot in the ACC title game and has a stronger schedule than Indiana. But would the committee really sink its previously ranked No. 5 team behind the Mustangs? If teams’ schedules are ranked within about 25 spots of each other, the committee doesn’t typically consider it a glaring difference, and SMU entered this week with the No. 87 schedule, followed by Indiana at No. 106. SMU, though, has a worse loss — to BYU — which lost its second game on Saturday. SMU also has better wins than Indiana — against Louisville, Duke, Pitt and Virginia, which all have winning records.

Path to the playoff: If SMU beats Miami or Clemson to win the ACC, it’s in — even if it loses to Cal in the regular-season finale because the five highest-ranked conference champs are in. As a one-loss ACC champion, SMU would likely leap Boise State to earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. As a two-loss ACC champion, though, it might not get the bye. If SMU finishes as a two-loss ACC runner-up, its playoff hopes would be slim, but its chances also depend on how many other upsets happen and where the Mustangs are ranked heading into the ACC title game.

Why they could be here: The Broncos clinched a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship game on Saturday. They were fortunate to beat Wyoming in a too-close-for-comfort game and got a scare when Ashton Jeanty was in the injury tent, but Jeanty returned and Boise State should continue to hang on to a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. It helped Boise State that BYU lost to Arizona State, and the Big 12 should again be on the outside of the committee’s top 12. The Broncos have a slight edge over the Hoosiers in the loss column, as the Broncos lost at No. 1 Oregon by a field goal, while Indiana suffered a lopsided loss at No. 2 Ohio State.

Path to the playoff: If Boise State can beat Oregon State in the regular-season finale and finish as a one-loss MWC champ, the Broncos will have a strong chance of earning a first-round bye ahead of a two-loss Big 12 champ. If the Broncos lose to Oregon State on Friday but still win the league, it will open the door for Tulane if the Green Wave can win the American.

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers had one chance to impress the selection committee against a ranked opponent and lost 38-15 on Saturday at No. 2 Ohio State. They will finish the season without a win over a ranked team. The committee had previously rewarded IU because it had won the bulk of its games in convincing fashion, but when facing their first true test of the season, the Hoosiers failed in all three phases of the game. It helped Indiana that Ole Miss lost, eliminating one contender above.

Path to the playoff: IU isn’t technically eliminated from the Big Ten race, but the Hoosiers need to beat Purdue in the regular-season finale AND have both Ohio State and Penn State lose to finish in the top two. If Indiana doesn’t play for the Big Ten title, it can still finish in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day, but it needs to avoid landing in the No. 11 or No. 12 ranking spot, because that team could be eliminated to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the bracket.

Why they could be here: This is where the committee will have to decide between two- and three-loss teams in the playoff, but if it ranks two-loss teams ahead of one-loss teams, don’t be surprised to see three-loss teams ahead of two-loss teams. The committee could certainly rank the Tide lower because they have two losses to unranked teams with at least four losses each (Vanderbilt and now Oklahoma). But the Tide still have one of the better wins against Georgia. That head-to-head result is now moot, though, because the records are no longer comparable.

Path to the playoff: Alabama needs help even if it is still in the top 12 on Tuesday night, because the Tide would be bumped out for the Big 12 champion in this scenario. Alabama needs to beat rival Auburn and hope there is more fallout above it.

Projecting the rest of the top 25
13. Ole Miss | 14. South Carolina | 15. Texas A&M
16. Clemson | 17. Arizona State | 18. BYU
19. Tulane | 20. Colorado | 21. Iowa State
22. UNLV | 23. Missouri | 24. Illinois | 25. Army

Bracket

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About the 12-team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 20 and 21

No. 12 Arizona State (Big 12 champ) at No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Notre Dame
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal games

At the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Arizona State/No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 Boise State
No. 11 Indiana/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 SMU/No. 7 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 2 Texas
No. 9 Tennessee/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Oregon