The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee only has three SEC teams in its fourth ranking, with both Alabama and Ole Miss dropping out of the top 12 on Tuesday night following losses to unranked opponents.

No. 3 Texas, No. 7 Georgia and No. 8 Tennessee are on solid ground heading into rivalry week, but there are still three three-loss teams in the committee’s top 15 (Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina).

Do any of them stand a chance? Or is one-loss Indiana one of the major obstacles?

Only one ranking remains before the final top 25 is revealed on Selection Day, but there were plenty of clues as to how the committee might view things moving forward.

Here are four lessons from the fourth ranking, plus who is on the bubble through 13 weeks of data and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.

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What we learned
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5

What we learned

The ACC is in great shape

For the first time this season, the committee ranked two ACC teams in its top 10 — No. 6 Miami and No. 9 SMU — increasing the chances that the runner-up of the ACC championship game earns a spot in the playoff. In addition, ranking Clemson at No. 12 shows that the Tigers could potentially be a third ACC playoff team if they can beat No. 15 South Carolina on Saturday. Clemson could still need some help, though, because even at the No. 12 spot the Tigers would be displaced if the playoff were today because the fifth-highest ranked conference champion is guaranteed a spot and would take that No. 12 seed. A win over the Gamecocks could vault them further up the ranking, making that a moot point, though.

Three-loss Alabama needs some major chaos to get back in

At No. 13 and behind two-loss Clemson, the Tide likely needs multiple upsets above it to get back into the playoff. Even if Clemson loses to South Carolina and falls behind the Gamecocks, bumping Alabama up to the No. 12 spot if they win the Iron Bowl, the Tide would still be out of the playoff because of the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. The loser of the SEC championship game has a strong chance to finish in the top 12 — unless it’s Texas A&M — so Alabama’s best shot is to hope for upsets this week. If Miami were to lose at Syracuse, or USC found a way to beat Notre Dame — those are the kinds of results that could get the Tide back in the mix.

Indiana can exhale … as long as it beats Purdue

At No. 10, the Hoosiers are in the last truly safe place in the selection committee’s ranking, as it’s always possible the No. 11 and/or No. 12-ranked teams get displaced on Selection Day by conference champions. In spite of the double-digit loss to Ohio State, and no wins against ranked opponents, the selection committee continued to keep the Hoosiers ahead of Mountain West Conference leader Boise State. As long as IU beats rival Purdue, the Hoosiers should be a lock.

The Big 12 is flirting with disaster

The rules of the 12-team CFP guarantees playoff bids for the five-highest ranked conference champions — period. That does NOT mean it’s a guarantee for the Power 4 conference champions. In theory, all five conference champions could be from the Group of 5. The reality is that the Big 12 champion should be in — it would be a stunning, controversial decision for it to be left out. But the league isn’t doing itself any favors with No. 16 ASU carrying the banner — just a step above No. 17 Tulane. If the Big 12 champion has three losses — and two-loss Tulane runs the table and finishes as a two-loss American Athletic Conference champion — it will at least open the door for a debate as to which conference champion would finish higher. The reason the Big 12 would probably still have an edge is because the winner would have punctuated its résumé against a ranked opponent, while Tulane would beat an Army team that is no longer in the committee’s top 25. It helps the Big 12 that Iowa State and BYU are at least still top-19 teams in the eyes of the committee.

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About the 12-team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.

No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers (10-1)

Why they should be worried: IU’s concern is about seeding, not inclusion. If two ACC teams are in, and the Big 12 champion climbs back into the top 12 on Selection Day with Boise State — or if Texas loses to Texas A&M and the Aggies eventually move up — Indiana could get bumped down to the No. 12 seed. That could mean a rematch with Ohio State — or having to play Oregon if the Ducks finish No. 2 in the committee’s final ranking.

ESPN Analytics says: IU is still mathematically in contention to play for the Big Ten title, but IU needs to beat Purdue and get help in the form of losses by Ohio State and Penn State, which are both heavily favored Saturday. There’s only a 0.5% chance the Hoosiers make the short drive to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.

No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2)

Why they should be worried: This spot will be fleeting if ASU doesn’t win the Big 12, and there’s no guarantee the Sun Devils will even make it to the conference championship game.

ESPN Analytics says: Arizona State, which was picked by the media to finish last in the preseason poll, has a 71% chance to make it to the Big 12 title game, the highest of any teams still in contention.

First four out

Clemson Tigers (9-2)

Best win: Nov. 16 at Pitt, 24-20

What’s left: The Tigers need Miami to lose to Syracuse to get a spot in the ACC championship game against SMU. According to ESPN Analytics, there’s an 81% chance that Miami will win and face SMU in the ACC title game. Clemson will end its regular season against rival South Carolina, and a win against the Gamecocks would boost the Tigers’ playoff résumé if they got into the ACC title game and were fighting for an at-large spot as the league’s runner-up. A win against South Carolina and some upsets above it could also boost Clemson into the playoff bracket. If Clemson loses to South Carolina, though, it would be eliminated if it also loses in/doesn’t make the ACC title game.

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3)

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Georgia, 41-3

What’s left: The Tide has no margin for error against rival Auburn on Saturday. With three wins against CFP top 25 teams (Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri), the Tide has earned its spot as the committee’s top three-loss team, but now they need multiple upsets above them — starting with Clemson losing to South Carolina — to get back into contention.

Texas A&M Aggies (8-3)

Best win: Oct. 5 vs. Missouri, 41-10

What’s left: The Aggies will face rival Texas in the regular-season finale, and will play Georgia in the SEC title game if they win. According to ESPN Analytics, there’s a 77% chance the Longhorns will beat the Aggies in their first meeting since 2011. If Texas A&M makes the SEC championship game and loses, it’s unlikely the committee will reward a four-loss runner-up, even in the SEC. There’s not enough quality wins on the Aggies’ résumé to compensate for it, and head-to-head losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina would be an issue.

BYU Cougars (9-2)

Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Kansas State, 38-9

What’s left: BYU has to beat Houston on Saturday and then hope it has earned a spot in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has a 53% chance to make it — and that slim edge over No. 18 Iowa State is the only reason the No. 19 Cougars are in this group instead of the Cyclones. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s in, but its chances of earning a first-round bye would be questionable and depend on other results.

Next four out

Iowa State Cyclones (9-2)

Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19

What’s left: The Cyclones need to beat Kansas State on Saturday and hope it’s enough to land in the Big 12 title game. The only reason Iowa State is listed here is because it still has more than a 50% chance to reach the conference championship (52%). When your best win is by one point against an unranked 7-4 Iowa team, winning the Big 12 is the only way in.

Ole Miss Rebels (8-3)

Best win: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia

What’s left: The Rebels have to avoid what would be a stunning and disastrous upset to rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday and then hope for some more chaos above them to get back in the mix. The best-case scenario for Ole Miss would be to finish 9-3 with a win against eventual SEC champion Georgia. That would give the committee something to think about and help compensate for losses to Kentucky and Florida.

South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3)

Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Texas A&M, 44-20

What’s left: A win at Clemson on Saturday would give the Gamecocks another win against a CFP top 25 opponent to go along with Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina needs more chaos above it to generate more serious consideration, but the committee will recognize that losses to LSU and Alabama were by a combined five points. A loss to Clemson, though, would be an eliminator. Head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss are a factor now and will continue to be.

Tulane Green Wave (9-2)

Best win: Nov. 16 at Navy, 35-0

What’s left: No. 17 Tulane was bumped onto the bubble because it’s right on the heels of the committee’s top Big 12 team, No. 16 Arizona State. The Green Wave still needs to beat Memphis on Thursday and then Army in the AAC title game — and it doesn’t help that the committee dropped the Black Knights from their top 25. But if the Big 12 produces a three-loss conference champion, it will at least open the door for a debate as to who the fifth-highest ranked conference champion could be.

Group of 5 Power Rankings

1. Boise State Broncos (10-1), Mountain West

Best win: Oct. 25 at UNLV, 29-24

Why they’re here: The selection committee had No. 11 Boise State ranked high enough to earn a first-round bye for the second straight week. The Broncos clinched the regular-season Mountain West Conference title and will host the league championship game. They will face either UNLV or Colorado State.

Chance to win conference: 69.7%

2. Tulane Green Wave (9-2), American Athletic

Best win: Nov. 16 at Navy, 35-0

Why they’re here: The Green Wave will face Army in the American Athletic Conference championship game, and are clinging to hope that Boise State loses and the winner of the MWC is ranked behind the AAC champs. Tulane’s only two losses were to K-State, which can technically still win the Big 12, and Oklahoma, which just beat Alabama. If the Green Wave can avoid a Thanksgiving Day upset to Memphis and win the AAC, it will have a chance.

Chance to win conference: 80.7%

3. UNLV Rebels (9-2), Mountain West

Best win: Sept. 13 at Kansas, 23-20

Why they’re here: UNLV was able to do something Colorado and BYU were not — beat Kansas. UNLV and Colorado State both enter the final week of the regular season with 5-1 league records but don’t play each other. Colorado State hosts Utah State on Friday (3:30 p.m. ET) and UNLV hosts Nevada on Saturday (8 p.m. ET). As long as UNLV remains in the committee’s top 25, the Rebels need only to beat Nevada to clinch a spot in the conference title game (regardless of Colorado State’s result). If UNLV wins the Mountain West, it would be in a strong debate with the AAC champ for the fifth and final bid as a conference champ.

Chance to win conference: 29.7%

4. Army Black Knights (9-1), American Athletic

Best win: Oct. 19 vs. East Carolina, 45-28

Why they’re here: The unranked Black Knights are a long shot after their loss to Notre Dame. They need to beat Tulane in the AAC title game — and hope that Boise State loses — to earn consideration from the committee. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has an 80% chance to beat Army in the championship game.

Chance to win conference: 19.3%

5. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (9-2), Sun Belt

Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38

Why they’re here: With the exception of the Mountain West and American teams listed above, Louisiana from the Sun Belt is the only remaining Group of 5 school with two or fewer overall losses that is probably headed to its conference championship game. Louisiana will win its division with a win at Louisiana Monroe on Saturday or a South Alabama loss. ESPN Analytics gives Louisiana a 92% chance to win its division.

Chance to win conference: 56.6%