A victory in Saturday’s 123rd Brawl of the Wild at Bobcat Stadium would give No. 2-ranked MSU (11-0, 7-0 Big Sky) a top-two seed in the FCS playoffs and complete MSU’s first perfect regular season in program history. The Bobcats would also earn their first outright conference championship since 1984 with a Cat-Griz win (they’re credited with a 2011 solo title, but they shared it with Montana before five UM wins were vacated due to NCAA sanctions).

“They’re rolling,” UM head coach Bobby Hauck said Monday. “They’ve really had a great season. I don’t know that anyone gives us a great chance to go down there and win, but we’re excited for the game, and we’ll go down there and try our best to get our 75th win in this series.”

The No. 9 Grizzlies (8-3, 5-2) are 16 1/2-point underdogs entering Saturday’s game, which will kick off at noon. They haven’t left Bozeman with the Great Divide Trophy since 2015 and lost 55-21 at Bobcat Stadium in 2022, but they’ve won two of the last three Brawls, including last year at Washington-Grizzly Stadium to capture the Big Sky title and improve to 74-42-5 in the all-time Cat-Griz series.

“We haven’t played as well over there as we played at home two years ago. Where does that play in? That’s maybe a question for next year. We’re playing here this year,” MSU head coach Brent Vigen said Monday. “We’ve got to find a way to play as well as we can in our home stadium against a really good opponent.”

Here are three keys for each team in Saturday’s Brawl, which will be televised on Montana CBS stations, streamed on ESPN+ and broadcast on the Bobcat Radio Network and the Grizzly Radio Network:

UM’s 3-3-5 defense allowed a Brawl-record 439 rushing yards in a 55-21 loss two seasons ago. Last year, the Griz allowed 213 ground yards in a 37-7 win.

“They do a lot of twists. They do things that are very unorthodox compared to a lot of teams,” MSU quarterback Tommy Mellott said Monday. “I think throughout this entire year, a lot of teams saw what success (UM) had against us at the end of last year, and a lot of teams have tried to mirror that as much as they can.”

Success is relative. Remove a minus-14-yard sack on a Hail Mary attempt, and the Cats rushed for 6.68 yards per carry at UM last year. They averaged 6.65 yards per rush in the 2022 Brawl (and weren’t sacked once).

The Cats lead the FCS in yards per carry (7.01) and are second to triple-option Davidson in rushing yards per game (317.2), similar to the numbers they put up in each of the previous two seasons.

Opponents have run for 137.9 yards per game on 3.75 yards per carry against UM this year. Those numbers were 84.6 on 2.92 entering last season’s Brawl.

The home team has dominated the last four Brawls largely because it’s performed better than the visitor on third downs, on fourth downs and in the red zone. Why exactly that’s happened is hard to explain, although some of it can probably be attributed to crowd noise (quiet when the home team is on offense, deafening when the road team has the ball).

“Between third down and red zone, there were situations within their stadium that we didn’t handle very well last year,” Vigen said. “We’re playing in our stadium this year, (so) less likely that’ll be a challenge for us.”

So far this season, MSU ranks third among FCS teams in third-down conversion percentage, tied for 58th in fourth-down conversion rate and fourth in red zone offense. UM is 40th in third-down defense, second in fourth-down defense and tied for 49th in red zone defense.

“Coach Vigen and staff do a great job of obviously realizing how big of games we’re playing in, but we also have a great process set in place, so we don’t need to reinvent the wheel,” MSU safety Rylan Ortt said Monday. “Coach Vigen’s message to the team this morning was, ‘We need to do our process. Do what we do and do it a little bit better this week.’”

The Cats have coughed up 10 fumbles and lost seven of them. Some of that is due to bad fumble luck — the Griz also have 10 fumbles this season and only lost four of them — but that doesn’t mean the fortune will flip Saturday.

Since 2019, the home and road teams have each fumbled six total times in the Brawl. The host hasn’t lost any of those six fumbles, while the visitor has lost four. That luck will eventually run out, but it might continue Saturday.

Mellott has thrown one interception all season, and MSU’s eight total turnovers lost is tied for fifth-fewest in the FCS. Continued good ball security Saturday will limit UM’s upset chances.

The Griz ran for 202 yards on 5.1 yards per rush against MSU last season. Their starting QB, Clifton McDowell, was more of a runner than Keali’i Ah Yat and Logan Fife, who make up UM’s two-QB system this season, but the Griz have rushed better as a team this year (208 yards per game on 5.61 yards per carry) than last (176.8 on 4.16).

So far this fall, MSU’s 4-2-5 defense has surrendered 113.6 rushing yards per game on 3.80 yards per carry — numbers that are inflated because of garbage time. The one team to exceed 200 rushing yards against MSU this year, Eastern Washington, did so largely because MSU didn’t fit the run to its standard, per Vigen.

The Griz have a comparable rushing offense to EWU’s, but they finished below their 5.61 yards-per-carry average in five straight games before tallying 6.42 last week against Portland State (which allows an FCS-worst 6.74 yards per carry).

Ah Yat and Fife have been good passers at points, but mostly against subpar defenses. MSU subdued prolific QBs Dante Chachere (of PSU), Carson Conklin (of Sac State) and Kobe Tracy (of Idaho State) earlier this season. The Cats also held UC Davis’ Miles Hastings, who’s thrown for the fourth-most yards among FCS players, in check before favorable calls and an onside kick allowed the Aggies to nearly pull off a miraculous comeback.

MSU’s offense hasn’t scored less than 30 points in a game this season, and its defense hasn’t allowed more than 28 (New Mexico scored 14 points on defense in its 35-31 season-opening loss to MSU). If the Cats can win the battle in the trenches, adequately cover UM’s dangerous pass catchers and be gap sound, they’ll be tough to beat Saturday.

“Everybody’s got to do their job. Nobody needs to have some out-of-world experience or anything like that,” MSU defensive end Brody Grebe said Monday. “Just go out there and trust each other and trust the coaches that they’re going to put you in a good spot to make plays.”

Last year in Missoula, Vigen thought his Cats might’ve stopped UM’s momentum when they scored a TD to open the second half. Junior Bergen returned the ensuing kickoff 49 yards, leading to a TD that put the Griz up 27-7.

It was a surprise that Bergen even got an opportunity in that spot. Opposing teams only returned eight total kickoffs against MSU last season, mainly because Cats punter/kickoff specialist Brendan Hall booted an FCS-best 72 touchbacks, including his first one in the Brawl. Hall and the rest of MSU’s punt team did limit Bergen, an All-American punt returner, to 4 yards on one punt return. 

The Cats didn’t punt once in the 2022 Brawl, and the longest kickoff return they allowed — to Bergen and record-setting KR Malik Flowers — went 23 yards.

Through 11 games this year, Hall leads the FCS with 71 kickoff touchbacks, and the eight kick returns from MSU’s opponents have gone for an average of 19 yards with no TDs and one lost fumble. Hall is averaging 44.26 yards per punt with eight fair catches induced so far this season, and teams have mustered 30 yards on seven punt returns against MSU in 2024.

Bergen has scored a TD on a punt return and taken a kickoff 41 yards this year, although he didn’t attempt any returns last week. Whether or not he’s available in the return game Saturday, the Cats will need to remain airtight on kickoffs and punts if they want to reduce UM’s momentum-grabbing opportunities.

— Victor Flores, Montana State beat writer 

MSU’s formula for winning is simple on paper but executed to perfection.

The Bobcats rank second in the FCS in rushing offense at 317.2 yards per game. In their past five victories over the Griz going back to 2016, they’ve run for 439, 382, 229, 322 and 368 yards, an average of 348.

In their two losses, Montana held them to 213 and 96 yards. The Griz went into last year’s Brawl with the No. 4 rush defense in the country but enter this one ranked 40th by giving up 137.9 yards per game on the ground.

Montana is coming off a win over Portland State in which it allowed the Vikings to run above their average for 213 yards. That’s the third-highest total allowed by UM, behind 243 to North Dakota and 263 to Eastern Washington.

The Griz have shored up some early season tackling issues. They’ll need to be sound tacklers while not losing contain and not over-pursuing. That’s easier said than done against the most talented offense they’ve seen so far.

Tommy Mellott is the most dynamic QB the Griz have faced. They didn’t get much of a test run against Dante Chachere last week because he appeared hobbled and didn’t run much.

The Cats have limited Mellott’s runs to keep him healthy, and he has run more than nine times in a game just once, topping out at 11. Will they unleash him or find enough success with their three-headed running back attack of Scottre Humphrey, Julius Davis and Adam Jones?

“It’s an option-based system, so they make you account for the quarterback and they do that a variety of ways,” Hauck said. “It’s fairly generic up front, but they’ve got a lot of movement around it and they mess with your eyes. The best player’s the quarterback and you’ve got to account for him on every play.”

If Montana can slow the run game on first down, it could put the Cats in more passing situations than they’d like. UC Davis made the Cats pass last week, but Mellott was money and had his second-most attempts and completions.

He’s taken care of the ball, completing 69.6% of his passes for 1,862 yards with 21 touchdowns compared to one interception. The Griz will need to force turnovers and be plus-two or better in turnover margin.

If they can finally get pressure, that could speed up Mellott’s decision making and force him into mistakes. They’ve had the advantage in the secondary in previous years, but that might not be the case as much this time around.

Making this a shootout might be Montana’s best chance to win.

The Griz will need to come out blazing on offense and keep the pedal to the metal to match MSU, which leads the FCS in scoring offense at 41.3 points per game. They have the potential to do that as they rank 11th at 36.1 points.

It’s still a tall task as the Cats are seventh in scoring defense, holding teams to 17.5 points per game. Montana is 49th at 24.2 points allowed on average, but the Cats have scored 30 or more in every game.

Montana has been at its best statistically when it has gone with one QB. The offense has excelled even more when the signal caller has been Logan Fife. Keali’i Ah Yat left with an injury last week and didn’t return.

Fife rallied Montana with 28 points in the second half and could’ve made it 35 points if UM didn’t run out the clock. That’s 70 points across an entire game if Montana can keep up that consistency.

The Griz put up 52 points in Fife’s start at Eastern Washington and 48 points the next week against Weber State while Fife played all but one series. Those are UM’s top two scoring outputs against scholarship teams this year.

Fife is a confident dealer running the RPO. And Montana has moved the ball well while going tempo. Will Hauck turn him loose and let him take deep shots regularly?

The offensive line will need to play its best game of the season and hold up against the pass rush to give Fife time to operate. The Cats exploded for a season-high six sacks and nine tackles for loss last week.

Montana could negate that MSU pressure by going to quick slant passes. That’s how the Griz were able to move the ball against PSU, which stacked the box and left its secondary in man coverage.

Montana was missing receiver Keelan White last week, and it remains to be seen if he’ll return. Either way, the Griz will be well served to not drop passes in the early going like they have in multiple games.

Perhaps Montana’s early passing could loosen up the defense and free up the run game. Eli Gillman is fresh off the second-best rushing game of his career and Nick Ostmo is capable of breaking off a chunk run at a moment’s notice.

Montana ran for 410, 349 and 337 yards in three consecutive games in the first half of the season. The Griz then dropped off to 68 and 77 right before rebounding for 199 last week. Will their running game show up this week?

“I think they play hard,” Hauck said of MSU’s defense. “They have a good understanding of where they fit, in particular in the run game. So, they’re very consistent that way.”

The team that has scored first in each of the past four Brawls has gone on to win. That team has also gone up by 14-plus points at the end of the first quarter in three of those four contests.

The Cats start the game with all the pressure on them eyeing an undefeated season and outright Big Sky title. Montana has already clinched a playoff berth and can play more freely. The Griz need to not get avalanched early.

Montana has been a slow-starting team, trailing by 17 points against Western Carolina, 18 against Weber State and 10 against Northern Arizona. The Griz have scored 83 and 99 points in the first two quarters, while MSU has limited teams to 25 and 35 points in those quarters.

If Montana can keep it competitive throughout the first half, that would be beneficial as its offense has gotten better as the game has gone on. The Griz have scored 113 and 102 points in the third and fourth quarter, respectively, while the Cats have seen their points allowed increase to 55 and 78 points, although they’ve often pulled starters late in blowouts.

Meanwhile, MSU’s offense drops from 110 and 169 points in the first two quarters to 89 and 86 points in the final two. Like the the Cats’ offense, the Grizzlies’ defense is at its best in the second quarter, having given up just 49 points compared to 66 in the first, 61 in the third, 83 in the fourth and seven in overtime.

Hauck regularly defers to the second half if Montana wins the coin toss. Will he instead take the ball first and try to jump to an early lead?

That’s one way to seize the momentum and silence the crowd. The Griz could also grab that by scoring on special teams or defense, or even flipping the field with a big return in one of those phases.

Junior Bergen holds the Big Sky career punt return record with six scores but didn’t play in the special teams return game last week. Montana will need to make sure it doesn’t get burned by Taco Dowler, who has three career punt return touchdowns, including one last week against UC Davis.

— Frank Gogola, Montana beat writer