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    • 13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 8
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    13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 8

    Vaseline Posted on

    I cannot recall this much collective fantasy football enthusiasm over a quarterback returning from injury in fantasy football than Tua Tagovailoa this week. Typically, when a QB misses time, at least some pieces of the offense remain functional. With Miami, that wasn’t the case. No skill position player thrived, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle failing to finish as a WR2 or better in Tua’s absence.

    The Dolphins are currently averaging 11.7 PPG. If the season ended today, Miami would finish with the fifth-fewest PPG of any team since 2000, and the worst average since the 2018 Arizona Cardinals (14.1).

    To compare Tua’s return to a historical event, this is the fantasy football equivalent of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Frustration has been replaced by hope and joy. There is a collective sigh of relief from every single fantasy manager rostering De’Von Achane, Waddle and Hill.

    Hill put it best with some fantasy football advice of his own.

    Here are a few other things fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on this week and beyond.

    1. DeAndre Hopkins: Kansas City bound

    The NFL arms race continues. Last week, Buffalo (Amari Cooper) and the New York Jets (Davante Adams) both made their moves. This week, it was the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

    The Chiefs are 6-0 despite injuries to key players like Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. They have “next-man-upped” their way to this perfect start. However, there has been a smoke-and-mirrors element to Kansas City’s success, with a concerning lack of pass-catching weapons and Patrick Mahomes struggling with turnovers (8 interceptions — the most in the NFL — to only 6 touchdown passes).

    Enter DeAndre Hopkins. The five-time Pro Bowler arrives in Kansas City seeking his first Super Bowl ring and potentially a heavy target share from Mahomes. Andy Reid wasn’t shy about discussing Hopkins’ role:

    The “Rashee Rice role” is an ideal fantasy role for Hopkins to step into. Rice had a first-read target rate of 33% and a TPRR (targets per route run) of 35% before his injury. JuJu Smith-Schuster filled that role in Week 5 with a 31% TPRR and finished with 20 fantasy points. Rice has averaged 16.2 PPG this season.

    Hopkins leaves quarterback Siberia (Tennessee), where his target share had dropped to 11.5% this year — a shockingly low figure, even in Tennessee’s anemic offense. Last season, Hopkins posted a 26.9% target share — 10th among all WRs. Yes, Hopkins is 32 years old, but he still averaged 13.2 PPG in 2023 and 16.9 PPG in 2022. There’s no reason to believe he can’t produce somewhere in that range for the rest of this season.

    He’s also sure-handed, a crucial trait for an offense that has struggled with drops (2.6 per game in 2023, the most in the NFL).

    In typical Chiefs fashion, they didn’t overpay for this move. There’s little downside. Kansas City sent Tennessee a 2025 fifth-round pick, which could become a fourth-rounder if the Chiefs make the Super Bowl and Hopkins plays 60% of the snaps.

    2. A smash game sequel?

    Last season, DJ Moore had a pretty good game against the Washington Commanders.

    Moore’s 49-point outburst was the fourth-most fantasy points scored in a single week by any player in 2023.

    The Chicago Bears return from their bye week with a 4-2 record and are gaining momentum on both sides of the ball. Caleb Williams is playing well, with back-to-back 300-yard passing performances. Moore has only one WR1 finish this season, and getting him off to a fast start post-bye could be a priority for the Chicago offense.

    The former Maryland Terrapin still holds the all-time school record for most receptions in a season with 80. He now has a chance for another massive performance a little over 11 miles down the road at Northwest Stadium. Bears fans, and Moore’s fantasy managers alike, are hoping history repeats itself this Sunday.

    3. The top rookie QB showdown is in jeopardy

    The highly anticipated Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels showdown is clouded with uncertainty. Daniels exited Washington’s blowout win over Carolina in Week 7 with a ribs injury. After getting in a very limited practice on Friday (his only one of the week), Washington is being understandably cautious with this one.

    Fantasy managers are hoping that this injury does not linger and Daniels can return on Sunday. But Washington showed no signs of slowing down with backup Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are averaging 31.1 PPG — the second highest in the NFL.

    4. Bobby Slowik and the Texans pass game (or lack thereof)

    I was very excited, and possibly too excited, about Tank Dell’s increased role during Houston’s first game without Nico Collins in Week 7. I may have written about it and used the headline “Tank Dell is back.”

    C.J. Stroud passed for three TDs — including one to Dell in Houston’s Week 6 cruise-control victory over New England. With a road game in Green Bay against Jordan Love and the high flying Packers last week, fantasy managers were hoping for even more. They did get an incredible fantasy performance… from RB Joe Mixon.

    Unfortunately, there was little production from the passing game. Dell finished with 4 targets and 0 catches. Stroud had his lowest passing yardage total as a pro (86). It is not quite panic time for Stroud managers, but only two QB1 finishes all season long is not exactly what those who drafted him aggressively this offseason signed up for.

    OC Bobby Slowik leaned almost exclusively on the run game. Houston finished with 33 rush attempts to only 21 pass attempts — their most run-heavy game by far this season.

    Was this a sign of things to come, or a one off? It may be difficult for Slowik to resist the temptation to feed Mixon early and often this week. Houston faces off against Indianapolis. The Colts allow 159.9 rushing yards per game, second most in the league.

    5. Deebo Samuel: Liftoff

    There has been a great deal of fantasy football content this week dedicated to discussing the Brandon Aiyuk injury fallout. Most of it was centered around a debate between Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. And while there is certainly fantasy value in that conversation, they have been burying the lead.

    How about a whole lot of Deebo Samuel?

    The sample size is small, but extremely promising. Samuel has 28 TDs in 32 games (including the playoffs) since Brock Purdy took over in 2022. He has scored 18 or more PPR points in eight of his past 13 regular-season games. With no Aiyuk, expect Samuel to provide strong WR1 production for the rest of the season.

    And about that bout of pneumonia that caused Samuel to head to the hospital. A mere blip on the radar for Samuel, who recovered about as quickly as humanly possible. He was back on the field on Thursday and is set to play this week against Dallas.

    6. Year of the free agent RB

    Looking back on this past offseason, the best draft strategy was to select free agent running backs early and often. There is someone reading this article who selected Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in the early rounds, along with maybe a Mixon, Aaron Jones or D’Andre Swift selection later on.

    Free agent RBs are dominating the fantasy win rates. Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley are all averaging 22 or more fantasy PPG. Aaron Jones and D’Andre Swift both average 15+, with J.K. Dobbins and Tony Pollard not far behind. Only Josh Jacobs has been somewhat uninspiring, and he is still averaging 13.1 PPG.

    I did not even include Kareem Hunt due to his limited sample size, but he is off to a red-hot start as well. Hunt is averaging 17.2 PPG.

    7. Saquon Barkley revenge game

    Speaking of free agent running backs, the much anticipated “Saquon Barkley revenge game” exceeded even the most enthusiastic Barkley managers’ expectations. Barkley went wild. He finished with 176 rushing yards and a TD  on only 17 carries.

    He reminded Giants fans just how special a talent he is, and displayed plenty of textbook explosiveness with a 21.93 mph run.

    Barkley could have had even more, but he chose not to re-enter the game with the Eagles cruising.

    There will be plenty more opportunities for Barkley smash games. He is currently averaging 6.1 yards per carry — the highest average of his entire career. Philadelphia’s next three opponents (Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and Dallas) rank among the Top 12 in points allowed.

    8. Your weekly dose of Ben Johnson praise

    I just can’t help myself. Ben Johnson and the Lions won a thrilling 31-29 NFC North showdown over Minnesota in Week 7. They put up 391 yards of total offense — their third straight game with 370+. The Lions are averaging 411 yards per game, trailing only the Baltimore Ravens (461.4 — not a misprint).

    The Lions offense is the best in the league at producing explosive big plays (runs of 10+ yards, and passes for 20+).

    This past week’s win was not any different, with multiple Lions scoring on big plays. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for a 45-yard TD (and added a second) and Amon-Ra St.Brown caught a 35-yard TD pass.

    This week’s game will present further challenges with big-play threat Jameson Williams (tied for eighth in the league with 7 catches over 20 yards) serving a two-game suspension.

    9. David Njoku: Cleveland’s top target

    Last week, I barely touched on the Davante Adams and Amari Cooper trades. These moves could result in multiple players increasing their fantasy value for the rest of the season. One of those players is David Njoku.

    In Cleveland’s first game without Cooper, Njoku tied a career high with 14 targets. He finished with 10 catches for 76 yards and a TD. Per Fantasy Points Data, over the past two games, Njoku has averaged a 28% target share and a 32% targets per route run average. He is the top target on the team and the focal point of the passing game. Expect more of the same this week with Jameis Winston taking over behind center.

    Njoku was not the only TE to thrive this week.

    10. Brock Bowers: The greatest TE ever

    Ok, maybe I can’t call him that just yet, but he seems to be on a collision course with history. He tied Njoku with 14 targets in Week 7  — the most by any player for the week. Bowers is averaging 14.6 PPG — the second-most at the TE position—and in nearly every other category, he is dominating. He has 15 more targets, 13 more catches and 102 more receiving yards than any other tight end.

    Bowers is on pace to shatter the record books for every rookie TE category — with plenty of room to spare.

    Bowers is performing at such a high level that TE records are almost a given at this point. He is chasing all-time WR records as well.

    He is currently on pace for 114 catches, which would leave him just two shy of Zach Ertz’s all-time record for TE receptions in a season. It would also break Puka Nacua’s rookie reception record of 105.

    Bowers is only 21 years old. If you drafted him in redraft, you have a potential league-winner. If you have him in dynasty, congratulations on securing generational wealth.

    Bowers is one of several rookies delivering in a major way in fantasy. But not all of them are delivering ADP wins.

    11. Marvin Harrison Jr.: Not what we signed up for

    Harrison had a historically high ADP. He was the highest rookie WR fantasy selection ever, routinely being selected in the early second round or higher all summer long. So far, he is only averaging 10.6 PPG — hardly what drafters had in mind. He has one of the worst ROIs at ADP of any player at the position. The past three weeks have been truly abysmal, with MHJ combining for 10.7 points, including a 0-point outing in Week 6. To quote a Matt Harmon term, MHJ has oftentimes been a “sacrificial X,” and hardly the alpha WR1 we were expecting.

    There are many issues at hand, with blame being cast on Kyler Murray, OC Drew Petzing and certainly MHJ himself.

    There have been plenty of rookies who increased their scoring and production over the second half of the season. With MHJ, we have already seen what a boom week looks like (29 points in Week 2), but we need way more of them.

    With rookies like Bowers, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. all providing massive ADP wins, MHJ’s slow start is further amplified.

    12. George Pickens liftoff

    Russell Wilson took over at QB this past week, and Pittsburgh proceeded to dominate the New York Jets in resounding fashion, 37-15. I could easily discuss how Pittsburgh has money-balled its way to four out of five weeks of QB1 finishes through two shrewd — and cheap — offseason moves. But my focus is on George Pickens.

    Wilson’s primary target had a big week, finishing with 111 receiving yards — the most by any WR this season against the Jets — while adding six catches, including a touchdown. His 22.1 points were a season high. The underlying metrics were terrific and quite promising.

    Pickens has little WR target competition and looks completely locked in. It is difficult to fully trust an Arthur Smith pass-catcher, but I’m willing to bet this won’t be the last Pickens smash performance this season. He is trending up.

    13. Todd Downing: Offensive mastermind

    Todd Downing, you had such a bad rap in Tennessee. We take back any bad thing we ever said. Let me assure you, you now have universal praise and love from the fantasy football community — especially Breece Hall managers.

    Hall is in store for another smash game. Over his past two games against New England, Hall has averaged 23.6 PPG.

    (Top photo of Brock Bowers: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

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