Let’s get this part out of the way — the expectations for the 2024 NBA rookie class aren’t sky-high compared to past drafts that had more star power. That doesn’t mean there aren’t first-year players ticketed to make major contributions in the 2024-25 season that tipped off Tuesday.

Evaluating the 2024 draft on the fly promises to be an interesting NBA subplot all the way through late March. Which rookies will surprise, such as Los Angeles Lakers forward Dalton Knecht? Who are the top early candidates to break through, such as San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle? And will we be able to determine if the draft truly lacked in overall talent as many around the league previously thought?

Let’s dive into the early-season outlook for the 2024 rookie class, ranking six of the top players who are slated to make an impact right away. And, I’ll share what I’m hearing about certain rookies, from situations that could prove most beneficial (Ryan Dunn’s 3-point attempts with the Phoenix Suns) to how teams are handling early roles and expectations (see, Bronny James with the Lakers).

But first, we begin with the top six rookies.

Jump to a section:
Top six rookies | Just missed | Bronny
Situations to watch | What I’m hearing

Drafted: No. 9, Purdue
Scouts most often said this about Edey: His scoring will translate (25.2 points per game last season) at the next level, but will his defense?
ESPN fantasy projections: 14.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.6 BPG

Edey opens the season starting at center for the Grizzlies, giving him a huge platform to produce and contribute to getting Memphis some wins. How big that workload becomes will hinge on how he adjusts to the NBA defensively, as opposing teams inevitably try to pull him out of the paint and test him.

It was a quiet first game for Edey Wednesday, as he played 15 minutes and fouled out, but things should improve as he gets comfortable and the Grizzlies figure out how best to utilize him. Expect his immense size (7-foot-4, 299 pounds) and finishing ability around the basket to help Memphis right away, even if he’s playing more of a change-up role.

Drafted: No. 3, Kentucky
Scouts most often said this about Sheppard: Size (6-3, 182) might be a limitation, but he’ll maximize his talent
ESPN fantasy projections: 14.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.1 3PG

Sheppard put on a shooting and playmaking display, stealing the show during summer league in Las Vegas in July. The question now is what type of minutes he’ll carve out in a crowded Rockets backcourt that includes the rising Amen Thompson and Jalen Green (who just signed an extension) and veteran Fred VanVleet.

Sheppard is coming off the bench to start the season, filling a role similar to what he played last season at Kentucky. How he fares will determine how those minutes evolve, but long term, he remains one of the most intriguing players in this class, as a gifted shooter and crafty playmaker who makes teammates better.

Drafted: No. 1, France
Scouts most often said this about Risacher: His skill set translates anywhere
ESPN fantasy projections: 12.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 3PG

If it’s possible for a No. 1 pick to fly under the radar, this is what it looks like. Despite the lack of hype around him compared to past top picks, Risacher should be ticketed for a lot of useful minutes in Atlanta, as a plus defender, capable floor spacer and finisher who can add value without dominating touches.

He turned in two steady preseason performances and logged 19 minutes in an inauspicious debut Wednesday; he won’t start to begin the season, but if he plays well, could wrest time away from De’Andre Hunter and others.

Drafted: No. 4, UConn
Scouts most often said this about Castle: He has great two-way upside — if he makes enough 3s
ESPN fantasy projections: 14.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.1 3PG

It’s in the Spurs’ long-term interest to find Castle plenty of playing time, and extra minutes will be available right away with Devin Vassell injured to start the season. Castle was productive in the preseason and figures to come off the bench in a combo role, getting a mix of playmaking reps and off-ball experience while providing versatile perimeter defense.

The immediate test will be whether he’ll make enough shots from deep to keep opponents honest — he took 16 shots from beyond the arc in four preseason games.

Drafted: No. 2, France
Scouts most often said this about Sarr: He has amazing physical gifts, but he’s a work in progress
ESPN fantasy projections: 11.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.4 BPG

The rebuilding Wizards are headed back into the lottery sweepstakes this season, and will feed Sarr plenty of developmental minutes to help him adjust. He had some good flashes in preseason, notably making 7 of 13 3-point attempts in three games.

It won’t all be smooth sailing because he is much further along on the defensive end than as a scorer, but Washington will want to see him play with energy, become a better communicator on the back line and rebound at a better rate than he has historically. The offensive growth might come slower, but fortunately, Sarr, 19, landed in a situation that can afford him ideal patience.

Drafted: No. 7, UConn
Scouts most often said this about Clingan: He’s the best paint protector in the ’24 class
ESPN fantasy projections: 10.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.2 BPG

Clingan enters this season in a platoon with incumbent starter Deandre Ayton after turning in one of the more notable games of the preseason, piling up 14 points and 20 rebounds (10 of them offensive) with four blocks against the Utah Jazz.

The Blazers are certainly thinking about the long term and will want to give Clingan defined minutes, but the roster situation likely dictates a cap on his playing time — at least for now. After logging 13 minutes in his debut Wednesday, it showed how he’ll be an impactful defender when he’s on the floor and should benefit from a situation where he won’t be overstretched in any way.

Just missed

Dalton Knecht, G, Lakers: Knecht’s 35-point preseason performance bodes well for his chances of finding a foothold in the Lakers’ rotation, and he chipped in a solid 16 minutes in his debut Tuesday off the bench. L.A.’s best chances of competing for the playoffs involve Knecht getting comfortable as a secondary scorer — the Lakers aren’t remarkably deep — and he should get a long look thanks to his shooting ability. He’s a polished player and could wind up as one of the league’s more impactful rookies if things break right.

Situations to watch in Charlotte, Phoenix

Tidjane Salaun, F, Charlotte Hornets. Saluan, at 19 and currently the youngest player in the league with a full-time roster spot, was widely labeled as a project player headed into the draft. That was understandable considering his limited high-level experience, and it didn’t stop the Hornets from taking a big swing on him at No. 6.

That confidence has so far been rewarded, as he has looked ahead of schedule in preseason minutes, averaging 11.8 points and 7.2 boards in five games and notably making 15 of 37 3-point attempts. While still learning the game, Salaun’s motor, size and versatility enabled him to make positive contributions in the preseason, and the rate at which he’s making shots from range is encouraging for Charlotte.

While the Hornets have veterans ahead of him — Salaun didn’t check in on Wednesday night — he could carve out a rotation spot over the course of the season, particularly if Charlotte thinks more long term and pivots toward younger players as the season goes on. Successfully fast-tracking his development and nailing a high-leverage selection would be a boon for their rebuild under new coach Charles Lee.

Ryan Dunn, F, Phoenix Suns. One of the most surprising developments from preseason — and one that might be meaningful — is that Suns rookie Dunn (No. 28 pick) attempted 30 3-pointers in five games, and made 13 of them (43%). He hit six in one game against the Denver Nuggets, a far cry from where his reputation sat a few months ago. For key context, he made eight 3-pointers total last season at Virginia.

Dunn, who is on the short list of the draft’s best defensive players, saw his draft stock drop over the course of the season largely because of concerns about his long-range shooting (23% in college on less than one attempt per game) and his ability to find a role on offense in the NBA. Positive results aside, the simple fact that Dunn is getting shots up with that type of volume speaks to his growing confidence.

We’ll see whether this is a mirage or a legitimate leap forward, but it’s potentially significant — if Dunn can make enough shots to earn consistent rotation minutes as a rookie, it’s a major coup for Phoenix. Dunn and fellow rookie Oso Ighodaro will get changes to contribute. The Suns need him to return value on the defensive end out of the gate, considering their star-heavy salary structure and limited flexibility to add depth.

What will Bronny James’ role be this season?

James checked in briefly alongside his father for a historic moment — which included 3 minutes of game action for the rookie — in the Lakers’ win on Tuesday, but it would be a surprise if that becomes the norm. Continue to temper expectations for Bronny James, who appeared in all six of the Lakers’ preseason games, but wasn’t particularly effective, although he did score 14 points in a blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors on Oct. 18. The Lakers gave him a standard contract, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to force-feed him meaningful minutes at the expense of team success, with better young players including Knecht and Max Christie positioned to contribute off the bench.

The best place for James to play developmental minutes will be with the South Bay Lakers in the G League, which shouldn’t be viewed as a negative thing. While the reality is that he will continue to draw scrutiny as LeBron James’ son, the expectations he faces in terms of development should be the same as any other late second-round pick, selections that have historically been long shots to stick in the NBA long term.

With all that said, there are better things to do than place your bets on James to win Rookie of the Year, which, it seems, is happening anyway.

MORE: LeBron and Bronny’s path to NBA history

What I’m hearing about …

A couple of less-heralded rookies who could earn early opportunities.

Yves Missi (drafted No. 21 by the New Orleans Pelicans) should get a chance to break into the rotation at some point, considering the Pelicans are carrying only two true centers into the season, the other being veteran Daniel Theis.

He had a positive debut Wednesday, logging 23 minutes, scoring 12 points with seven rebounds and three blocks while rotating with Theis, although that came with Zion Williamson out.

The Pelicans have a need for rim protection behind Zion Williamson, and the high-flying Missi made a number of impressive plays as an acrobatic finisher and shot blocker in preseason, looking more comfortable and advanced than expected after one season at Baylor.

New Orleans will experiment with small-ball lineups that maximize the roster’s talent — potentially minimizing the need for a 5-man on the floor — but considering the dearth of other options, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Missi continues to be thrown into the mix early — particularly with forward Trey Murphy III currently among the injured Pelicans.

Dillon Jones (drafted No. 26 by the Oklahoma City Thunder) was a player executive vice president and general manager Sam Presti personally coveted and went out of his way to acquire on draft night, dealing five future second-round picks to the New York Knicks to make the selection.

And while the Thunder have one of the league’s deeper benches with Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins among those in need of minutes, Isaiah Hartenstein’s injury could lead to more small-ball looks from coach Mark Daigneault in the short term, with Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams (who missed the preseason with a hamstring injury) the two nominal bigs on the roster. That could open up a pathway for Jones, whose positional versatility and rebounding chops enable him to fit nicely into different lineups.