Bob Pockrass

FOX NASCAR Insider

Can the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture deteriorate further after Harrison Burton’s improbable victory Saturday night at Daytona?

The Cup Series playoffs feature 16 drivers: the regular-season champion and the next 15 drivers ranked by wins, with ties decided by points.

All three drivers in contention for the regular season title are among the 13 drivers who have claimed a win this year to secure a place in the play-offs. That means there are three points-based spots available for the regular season finale at Darlington next Sunday.

Who’s in, who’s on the edge and who wants to win at all costs?

The 13 drivers with wins participating: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton.

There are five drivers without a win battling for the three spots: Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain.

“I should have won multiple times this year and I didn’t,” Wallace said. “We don’t even deserve to be here and we are. We have to win next week. That’s it.”

NASCAR Cup Series: Harrison Burton Wins Wild Race at Daytona!

These are the decisive scenarios for these drivers:

–Truex has a 58-point lead over Wallace, the first driver currently out of the race. Truex will be there if there is no new winner at Darlington. Even with a new winner, he is in good shape, 19 points ahead of Ty Gibbs and 37 points ahead of Buescher. Truex has two career victories at Darlington but has finished no better than 18th in his last five starts.

–Gibbs has a 39-point lead over Wallace and an 18-point cushion over Buescher. If there is no new winner, Gibbs will secure a spot with a 20th or better finish at Darlington (and probably won’t have to finish that well). Gibbs is probably good unless he has an accident or mechanical problem at Darlington. He was second at Darlington in May.

“We just have to have a good run,” Gibbs said. “We were second there in the spring.

“I think we have the speed to win, so I think it would be cool to get my first win at the Southern 500. That would be awesome.”

–Buescher has a 21-point lead over Wallace and 27 points over Chastain for the current final spot. This is likely to be the battle if there is no new winner. Buescher has already had heartbreak at Darlington, where he clashed with Tyler Reddick earlier this year during the battle for the win. Buescher finished third at Darlington last year.

“We’re going to Darlington points as they are — a little bit of a buffer there,” Buescher said. “We know we were really good there last time.”

–Wallace trails Buescher by 21 points for the final playoff spot. If Buescher has a bad first two stages and Wallace can score points, he would be in contention to catch him. That’s a big if. Wallace probably should win. Wallace has four straight top-10s at Darlington, but no finish better than fifth.

–Chastain, 27 points behind, is in a similar position to Wallace. Darlington is a good track for Chastain, but he has only two top-5 finishes in Cup at the track.

“I look at it as an opportunity to win the Southern 500,” Chastain said. “That’s what I’m focused on.”

There are 17 other drivers who are eligible for the playoffs and will face a must-win situation at Darlington to make the playoffs: Austin Dillon (who lost his appeal with NASCAR after his Richmond win knocked him out of the playoffs), Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek and Zane Smith.

Busch and Jones both won a Cup race at Darlington.

Bob Pockrass writes about NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has covered motorsports for decades, including more than 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bob poc race.

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