Finally, there’s NFL regular-season football on TV tonight.

There are many little joys on the day of opening kickoff. Familiar pregame theme music gets us in the mood and, while the weather hasn’t started to break yet, football being played means fall is coming. By Week 3, half of the league’s fan bases might be in despair. But on kickoff day, hope reigns.

The most important joy, though, is that preview content is finally, mercifully over. The 16 different ways to talk about the same players, film and storylines are all exhausted now, and the only things left to preview are the actual games.

But before the season-opener between the Ravens and Chiefs, here’s one final piece of season preview content: I’m predicting all of the players who might lead the NFL in five different statistical categories. To examine these markets, I used the lines available on ESPN BET to calculate implied probabilities. I then looked at a few key players who could lead the league in their respective categories and summarized my own (completely heuristic) percentages at the bottom of each section below — every single player who could finish at No. 1 in the category and his chance to do so.

The value isn’t in the product but rather the process. It was cool to learn about the four separate times Vinny Testaverde led the league in interceptions thrown, and it was maddening to discover that there’s no real way to predict who will lead the league in receiving yards. How we think about individual season leaders is largely a reflection of how we think about offense (or defense) as a whole, and understanding those units is how we become smarter football fans. Let’s dig in with my look at potential stat leaders for the 2024 NFL season.

Jump to:
Passing | Rushing | Receiving
Sacks | Interceptions thrown

Passing yards

This used to be a little easier to predict. Of the 24 seasons played since 2000, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger led the league in passing 16 times. From 2011 to 2018, one of those four passers took home the trophy. Those were simpler days.

But we’ve had some new, weird winners recently. Jameis Winston was the only passer to go over 5,000 yards in 2019, hucking and chucking it for the Bruce Arians-led Buccaneers. Deshaun Watson totaled 4,823 yards in 2020 on the 4-12 Texans — easily the worst team to support a season-leading passer. In 2022, Patrick Mahomes got his name on the list, and Tua Tagovailoa did as well in 2023 … but with only 4,624 yards (272 yards per game). That’s the worst per-game figure to win this category since Brady’s 256.9 in 2005.

I think last season was an outlier. There were 11 passers with more than 4,000 passing yards, which is on pace with seasons past. So here’s what I’m looking for when making my selection.

Don’t pick scramblers: Since 2000, only three quarterbacks have led the league in passing yards while also scrambling on more than 5% of their dropbacks: Daunte Culpepper in 2004, Watson in 2020 and Mahomes in 2022. Scramble rates are up leaguewide, so we’re not going to see seasons like Manning’s 2013 (literally zero scrambles) or even Brees’ 2016 (three scrambles on 696 dropbacks). Winston scrambled on 4.7% of his dropbacks in 2019, which was roughly the average scramble rate of a quarterback last season.

We’re not limiting ourselves to pure pocket passers — just docking quarterbacks who lose passing attempts by tucking and running. That describes Lamar Jackson but should also include Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Mahomes (I know he won the award in 2022, but Mahomes is, as always, the exception that proves the rule).

Look for pass-happy coaching staffs: It’s easy to think that quarterbacks with terrible defenses will be forced into more passing situations. That’s likely true, but it’s also a chicken-and-egg problem. Teams with good quarterbacks pass for a lot of yards and score a lot of points, which incites offenses facing them into throwing the ball a lot more and scoring a lot of (garbage-time) points, which can then make a defense look worse than it really is.

In general, you want your defense to give up a lot of points and create as many passing-game scripts as possible. Since 2012, the defense of every passing leader was average or worse in points per game surrendered save for two exceptions: Brady in 2017 and 2021. (Like Mahomes, Brady is another exception that proves the rule.)

Instead of focusing on gross scoring output, we should look for pass rate over expectation, which adjusts for situation. Get a team that naturally wants to call a lot of passes, then get a middling-or-worse defense, and you’re cooking with the right ingredients to lead the NFL in passing yards. Since 2016, which is as far back as NFL Next Gen Stats data goes, every passing yards leader has been top 10 in pass rate over expectation that season. Four of the eight teams have been first overall.

Last year’s top 10 teams by pass rate over expectation: Chiefs, Commanders (Eric Bieniemy’s Chiefs roots showing), Vikings, Cowboys, Jaguars, Ravens (hello!), 49ers (really?!), Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks.

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Intriguing candidates

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (10.5% implied probability)

Stroud likely leads this market because of a name recognition bump. He’s the type of pocket passer we’re looking for here, and he edged out Tagovailoa in passing yards per game last season (273.9 vs 272.0) but missed two games. But Stroud shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over Tagovailoa or Brock Purdy, both of whom scrambled less than Stroud and averaged more passing yards per attempt last season. The Texans also rated 14th in pass rate over expectation, below the Dolphins and 49ers. Stroud is still a good candidate, though!

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (4.6% implied probability)

You know who was ripping up the league last season before his midseason Achilles injury? Cousins. As a lifetime pocket passer who will have an even lower scramble rate coming off that injury, Cousins is a tempting pick. The Falcons’ preposterously easy schedule and likely midtier defense make him even more tempting. But new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is coming from a Rams organization that typically runs the ball way over expectation, and defensive head coaches like Raheem Morris also heavily lean on rushing. If you could promise me that the Falcons will let Cousins rip it, I’d love this choice.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (4.6% implied probability)

Stafford is so good. Receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are also very good. The Rams’ defense might be very bad. But there’s only one problem here.

When Stafford joined the Rams in 2021, McVay was a giddy, pass-happy young coach, and Stafford was third in total pass yards. But in the past two seasons, the Rams have been top 10 in run rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and given their recent investment in the offensive line, I don’t think that’s changing this season. The only way Stafford gets enough attempts is if the Rams’ defense is so bad that Los Angeles is constantly in forced pass scripts — which … maybe!

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (3.3% implied probability)

This is far too low. The 49ers have been passing quite a bit since Purdy became the starter late in the 2022 season, star receiver Brandon Aiyuk is officially back, the 49ers’ defense took a step back last season, and Purdy doesn’t really scramble much. Purdy averaged 1.3 more passing yards per attempt than the next closest quarterback last season (Tagovailoa at 8.3), so if we can get Purdy a few more attempts (he had 444 to Tagovailoa’s 560) via game script, we’d be golden.

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Solak’s predicted chances on the 2024 passing yards leader

1. Brock Purdy, 49ers: 15%
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: 12%
3. Jared Goff, Lions: 10%
4. C.J. Stroud, Texans: 9%
5. Dak Prescott, Cowboys: 8%
6. Joe Burrow, Bengals: 8%
7. Kirk Cousins, Falcons: 8%
8. Matthew Stafford, Rams: 8%
9. Aaron Rodgers, Jets: 7%
10. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 6%
11. Josh Allen, Bills: 4%
12. Jordan Love, Packers: 2%
13. Sam Darnold, Vikings: 1%
14. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: 1%
15. Justin Herbert, Chargers: 1%

Rushing yards

Here’s what I’m looking for when making my rushing selection.

Trust the top backs: Unlike passing yardage, where we must go beyond raw attempts, rushing yardage is clearly tied to rushing volume. More yardage leaders since 2000 have led the league in rushing attempts (13) than haven’t (11) — and of those 11, seven were second in carries. To correctly predict this award, we’re looking for guys who get the ball a lot.

Age matters: We are also looking for players in their prime. Running back is a brutal, unforgiving position, and while many good players continue playing well into their late-20s and even their 30s, they can’t sustain the necessary volume to lead the league in rushing. Last season, 27-year-old Christian McCaffrey paced the league with 1,459 yards. He became the oldest back to pull that off since 30-year-old Adrian Peterson did it in 2015. We should favor youth over experience, even going so far as to consider rookie options, as both Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Kareem Hunt (2017) were first-year players who recently led the league in rushing.

Timeshares, including those with quarterbacks, should be avoided: This is a corollary to rushing attempts but bears emphasizing. If a back is going to split carries with someone else, he’s probably not going to win this award. In games in which he was active, McCaffrey was responsible for 57.9% of the 49ers’ rushes. That was 11th in the league, and it was the lowest figure for a rushing leader in the past 16 seasons.

We typically see the rushing leader account for at least 65% of the team’s carries, and usually more than 70%. That’s harder than it sounds. Only Josh Jacobs was over 70% last season, and Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon joined him over 65%.

Consider the Lions’ duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs — who were sixth and 13th in rushing yards per game last season, respectively — or the Dolphins’ De’Von Achane (fifth) and Raheem Mostert (ninth). By any metric, these were efficient runners who should be considered contenders for the rushing crown, but they cut too much into their teammate’s market share. Short of projecting injury, we shouldn’t bank on these players to lead the league in rushing.

And finally, the quarterbacks. Running backs who win yardage titles don’t have quarterbacks who run the ball often. Since 2000, the leading quarterback rushing attempt total on a team with the NFL’s rushing leader was 75, set by the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott in 2018. That pales in comparison to the 157 rushes that Hurts had for the Eagles last season, or the 148 carries that Jackson took from the Ravens. Running quarterbacks are prohibitive to their running backs leading the league in rushing, but even players such as Daniel Jones, Mahomes and Allen run enough per game to discount their running back teammates.

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Intriguing candidates

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (12.2% implied probability)

McCaffrey is 28 years old; only four players that old have paced the league in rushing yards since 2000. He’d also be a repeat winner, which has happened only twice this century. (It’s typically difficult for a running back to have two straight seasons of high rushing volume, and the team doesn’t want the back to do it again, either.) McCaffrey pulled off last season’s crown despite low volume thanks to his high efficiency, but he has already had a calf injury in camp. In short, I don’t think McCaffrey is repeating in 2024.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (8.1% implied probability); Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (7.6%); Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (4.7%)

These are the second, third and fifth running backs in the market, respectively, and I think the running ability of their quarterbacks all but disqualifies them from leading the league. It’s a very interesting market.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (4.4% implied probability)

I think Robinson is going to go through the roof this season. Last year’s Rams relied heavily on running the ball, as we detailed above, and both coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson came from the Rams’ staff. They’re clearly bullish on Robinson, whose 1,400 scrimmage yards last season went underappreciated in a largely dysfunctional Falcons offense.

Robinson’s quarterback won’t bite into his carries, and backup running back Tyler Allgeier won’t get as much volume as the previous staff gave him. Robinson is still in his prime and has the ability to play 17 games at a high volume.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (4.4% implied probability)

If not for the Blake Corum question, Williams would be a great candidate to lead the league. He’s on a good rushing team and had great stats last season, including leading the NFL in rushing yards per game. A little better health luck, and we’ll be fine.

Williams would not be the first back to lead the league in rushing despite his team drafting a backup that year. The Raiders drafted Zamir White in the fourth round of the 2022 draft, but Jacobs led the league in rushing. In 2020, the Titans drafted Darrynton Evans in the third round, which didn’t dent Henry’s volume or his bid for a rushing title. But the Rams likely want to cut into Williams’ volume a bit. As McVay said of Williams when the RB missed OTAs, “He had a little foot issue that we’re going to be smart with him. It’s probably good. That maniac works so hard sometimes it’s good to just be able to pull him back.” And GM Les Snead said the Rams picked Corum in April “so we don’t just totally run down Kyren.”

I think Williams is still the leader in that backfield. But this is enough of a timeshare to fade Williams as a season leader.

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Solak’s predicted chances on the 2024 rushing yards leader

1. Bijan Robinson, Falcons: 14%
2. Kyren Williams, Rams: 11%
3. Breece Hall, Jets: 10%
4. Zamir White, Raiders: 7%
5. Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars: 7%
6. Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: 7%
7. Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs: 6%
8. Joe Mixon, Texans: 5%
9. Rachaad White, Buccaneers: 5%
10. Derrick Henry, Ravens: 5%
11. Jonathan Taylor, Colts: 4%
12. Saquon Barkley, Eagles: 4%
13. Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks: 3%
14. Najee Harris, Steelers: 2%
15. James Cook, Bills: 2%
16. Josh Jacobs, Packers: 1%
17. De’Von Achane, Dolphins: 1%
18. David Montgomery, Lions: 1%
19. Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions: 1%
20. Alvin Kamara, Saints: 1%
21. D’Andre Swift, Bears: 1%
22. James Conner, Cardinals: 1%
23. Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots: 1%

Receiving yards

This is hard. I wish I had to pick this about five years ago, when the trends would have been easy. Look at all the receiving leaders from 2000 to 2019 and you see dominant No. 1 receivers in established roles with QB chemistry. In fact, 16 of the 20 were in at least their third consecutive season on their teams — and the other four were in their second year.

But over the past four years, the receiving leaders have been semi-recent transplants. Tyreek Hill was in his second year with the Dolphins and Tagovailoa in 2023, and Justin Jefferson was in his third year with the Vikings and Cousins in 2022. Cooper Kupp was catching passes from Stafford for the first time in 2021, but he at least had already earned McVay’s trust. And Stefon Diggs was completely new to the Bills and Allen in 2020. Here’s what I’m considering for receiving.

Trying to find WR2s: Going back to 2000-2019, we find that a season’s receiving leader often played on a team without a great No. 2 receiver. In fact, from 2011 to 2019, the second target getter after the leading receiver was not a wide receiver at all, but rather a running back or a tight end, in all but one season. Think Le’Veon Bell for Antonio Brown in 2014 and 2017, or Brandon Pettigrew for Calvin Johnson in 2011 and 2012. It’s easy to see how 2016 T.Y. Hilton led the league in receiving when Andrew Luck’s next-best option was Jack Doyle.

Yet over the past few seasons, we have seen solid No. 2 receivers playing behind the season leaders. Cole Beasley had 107 targets and 967 yards behind Diggs in 2020, while Adam Thielen had 109 targets for 716 yards behind Jefferson in 2022. Last season, Jaylen Waddle had more than 1,000 yards, yet Hill still led the league with 1,799 yards. If we looked for only Batmans without Robins to predict the 2024 season leader in receiving yards, we’d be missing the mark entirely.

A changing role: One last difference from pre-2020 to now is the average depth of target for a season leader. From 2000 to 2019, it was 12.5. In the past four seasons, it has been 9.9. None of the past five leading receivers have had a depth of target over 11 yards. Kupp and 2019 Michael Thomas have each had a depth of target just over 8 yards as functionally slot receivers.

So where does this leave us for making our picks this season? I’m not really sure. I don’t want to discount any particular body type, role or team build. I’m still going to dock new quarterback-wideout pairings and clear 1A-1B setups (which will include Waddle and Hill, I guess?) and then just trust elite talent in good passing attacks to bring me home.

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Intriguing candidates

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (6.1% implied probability)

Lamb is an obvious and perfect example here, and he is rightfully second in the betting odds. The other pass-catching options are Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks in Dallas, Lamb has a ton of chemistry and experience with Prescott, and he can line up and win in a variety of ways, a la Jefferson and Diggs. The Cowboys have also been a pass-happy team under coach Mike McCarthy and might need to be even pass-happier if the defense isn’t as dominant as it had been under Dan Quinn. He’s my favorite for sure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (4.6% implied probability)

Were St. Brown to win the crown, he’d do so in the model of 2021 Kupp and 2019 Thomas: a lot of slot routes, a shallow depth of target and an extremely high catch rate. But that’s how he was used last season for the Lions, and he was third in total receiving yards in only 16 games, so this isn’t a big leap at all. And while Sam LaPorta is an excellent secondary receiving option, there isn’t much behind those two just yet.

Another thing to love about St. Brown? Jared Goff is not a scrambler at all, so he won’t take away precious pass attempts by tucking and running.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (2.9% implied probability)

With Aidan O’Connell throwing the football last season, Adams saw 34.2% of the team’s target share — an enormous number. He was efficient on a per-target basis, though not at typical Adams levels. But Gardner Minshew is starting in Week 1, which makes this tricky. Can Adams lead the league with a quarterback platoon? Josh Gordon did it in 2013 in Cleveland, but Gordon was 22 years old and catching everything down the field. Adams isn’t exactly that player anymore. But man, Adams’ volume is hard to ignore.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (2.4% implied probability)

Let me first present the bullish case for Olave. He’s in his physical prime and doesn’t have a huge competition for targets. His new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, is from the Shanahan tree (which has historically been great for No. 1 receivers such as Julio Jones, Aiyuk and Nico Collins). And he’s in his second year with his quarterback (who is not a scrambler). Seems perfect, right?

Now let me present the bear case for Olave: His quarterback is Derek Carr.

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Solak’s predicted chances on the 2024 receiving yards leader

1. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: 12%
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: 10%
3. Davante Adams, Raiders: 8%
4. Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: 7%
5. Chris Olave, Saints: 7%
6. Justin Jefferson, Vikings: 5%
7. Drake London, Falcons: 5%
8. Mike Evans, Buccaneers: 4%
9. DK Metcalf, Seahawks: 4%
10. Garrett Wilson, Jets: 4%
11. Amari Cooper, Browns: 4%
12. Puka Nacua, Rams: 3%
13. Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals: 3%
14. A.J. Brown, Eagles: 3%
15. Cooper Kupp, Rams: 3%
16. DeVonta Smith, Eagles: 3%
17. Nico Collins, Texans: 3%
18. Michael Pittman Jr., Colts: 2%
19. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers: 2%
20. Stefon Diggs, Texans: 1%
21. DJ Moore, Bears: 1%
22. Marvin Harrison Jr, Cardinals: 1%
23. Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins: 1%
24. Calvin Ridley, Titans: 1%
25. George Pickens, Steelers: 1%
26. Zay Flowers, Ravens: 1%
27. Terry McLaurin, Commanders: 1%

Sacks

This one can get weird. The first thing that stands out on this list are the surprising names … Shaquil Barrett in 2019, two seasons after Chandler Jones in 2017, one season after Vic Beasley in 2016. Robert Mathis took home the title only once … when he was 32 years old! Justin Houston had 22 in 2014 and had double-digit sacks in only three other seasons of his long and storied career. And the 2005 Derrick Burgess season (16 sacks) will forever live in infamy.

In those standout seasons, volume was a big deal. Jones had more pass rush snaps than anyone else in 2017, which was a quiet year for sacks overall, so that volume saved him. Barrett was sixth in his leading season. Beasley was 31st in 2016, but honestly, nobody can explain that season anyway. What else matters here?

Age is a huge factor: The past 10 winners of this award have been between the ages of 24 and 28 — and before Watt won it last season (for the third time in three years, mind you), it was 24-27. Mathis and Michael Strahan (2003) are the only 30-plus-year-olds to have won it this century. This did surprise me, but I imagine age is less correlated with sack artistry and more correlated with higher snap counts, which can be the extra difference on that one last sack that’s needed.

Game script matters: I found less of a relationship between team strength and game script for passing, rushing and receiving yardage than I expected, but it’s definitely here in sack numbers. Ten of the past 13 sack leaders have played for playoff teams, and the three who didn’t were on 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 squads.

In the past, the correlation wasn’t nearly as strong, but it’s an increasingly pass-happy league. Where bad teams would have just handed the ball off a decade ago, they’re now letting young quarterbacks drop back and eat bad sacks. Fourteen-point fourth-quarter deficits aren’t what they used to be. The advantage that playoff-caliber teams have in creating sack opportunities for their players is increasing over time, and that should be reflected in our selections.

I’m also peeking at Seth Walder’s sack projection numbers, which are modeled not only off projected snaps and historic sack rates — like I’m looking at here — but also ESPN’s pass rush win rate and the opposing quarterbacks on the schedule.

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Intriguing candidates

Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys (10.4% implied probability)

The fact that Parsons has never had more than 14 sacks in a season is perplexing, but by the same token, the fact that he has never had fewer than 13 is incredible. Parsons is at times the victim of his own success: He wins so quickly that he often supplies the initial pressure that displaces the quarterback into a sack by one of his teammates. But Parsons almost inevitably has a peak season of 18 or 19 sacks in his bag, and perhaps the defensive coordinator switch in Dallas will unlock that ceiling. Either way, he’s a chalky favorite, but the 25-year-old simply fits our bill perfectly.

Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions (4.2% implied probability)

I thought Hutch took a big leap from Year 1 to Year 2 — and if he can do it again, he’ll be one of the league’s premier sack getters. He’s 25 years old and should play with a lead for many second halves, and critically the rest of the defense around him (theoretically) got better. If the Lions can cover far more successfully with cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold in the building, it will give Hutchinson another half-second to get home. And if defensive line additions Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader can push the pocket, Hutchinson can work into some cleanup sacks.

One thing’s for sure: Hutchinson already has the volume. Only Danielle Hunter and Maxx Crosby have more pass-rush snaps over the past two seasons than him.

Bryce Huff, Philadelphia Eagles (1.2% implied probability)

Huff started accumulating sacks only last season (10 on 293 pass-rush snaps, which is an efficiency right up there with elite rushers such as T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett and Parsons). But his pressure numbers and pass rush win rate have always been great. So what if the Eagles give him 500 pass rush snaps instead of 300? That’s what Haason Reddick got in Philadelphia last season (495 snaps), and Huff should be his one-to-one replacement given the lack of depth behind him.

It might not even take that many snaps for Huff to take another leap. Reddick was tied for second in total sacks in 2022 on only 401 pass rush snaps, though that was on a far better defense than whatever happened in Philadelphia last season. If the Eagles right the ship, expect their pass rushers (Huff and Josh Sweat) to feast on late-game dropbacks and capitalize on good coverage on the back end.

Jonathan Greenard, Minnesota Vikings (1.2% implied probability)

Remember when I said this award can get weird? Well, Hunter had a career year rushing off the edge for Brian Flores’ defense last season in Minnesota. Why couldn’t Greenard, the free agent signed to a high-priced deal to replace Hunter, do the same?

Greenard already took a nice leap forward in pass rush productivity last season, racking up 12.5 sacks on 345 pass rush opportunities. Hunter received 562 pass rush reps for the Vikings in 2023, and in that blitz-heavy defense, sacks can come to a player in all sorts of ways — free rushes, clean-up opportunities and half-sacks. Greenard might not be a household name, but anyone who gets more than 500 pass rushes in this defense is liable to put up big sack numbers.

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Solak’s predicted chances on the 2024 sacks leader

1. Micah Parsons, Cowboys: 12%
2. Myles Garrett, Browns: 11%
3. T.J. Watt, Steelers: 10%
4. Aidan Hutchinson, Lions: 9%
5. Maxx Crosby, Raiders: 7%
6. Trey Hendrickson, Bengals: 7%
7. Josh Hines-Allen, Jaguars: 7%
8. Nick Bosa, 49ers: 4%
9. Montez Sweat, Bears: 4%
10. Bryce Huff, Eagles: 4%
11. Jonathan Greenard, Vikings: 4%
12. Danielle Hunter, Texans: 3%
13. Brian Burns, Giants: 3%
14. Chris Jones, Chiefs: 2%
15. Will Anderson Jr., Texans: 1%
16. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants: 1%
17. Matthew Judon, Falcons: 1%
18. Khalil Mack, Chargers: 1%
19. Alex Highsmith, Steelers: 1%
20. Harold Landry III, Titans: 1%
21. Jermaine Johnson, Jets: 1%
22. Josh Sweat, Eagles: 1%
23. Laiatu Latu, Colts: 1%
24. Rashan Gary, Packers: 1%
25. Yaya Diaby, Buccaneers: 1%
26. Jalen Carter, Eagles: 1%
27. Chase Young, Saints: 1%

Interceptions thrown

Good quarterbacks lead the league in interceptions. If you don’t believe me, look at the list. In recent years, we saw Prescott, Trevor Lawrence and Stafford do it. Before that, Ben Roethlisberger did it twice, Philip Rivers did it twice, and Tony Romo and Drew Brees each got a piece as well. Eli Manning led the league in interceptions thrown three separate times.

The reason good quarterbacks lead the league in interceptions is because you have to throw a lot of passes to throw a lot of picks. Good quarterbacks don’t get benched, so even if they’re throwing a lot of picks, their coaching staff lets them work through it. Good quarterbacks also throw so many touchdowns and make so many spectacular plays that they help offset the loss from those interceptions. I didn’t hear anyone lamenting Stafford’s picks during the Lombardi Trophy presentation ceremony after the 2021 season, nor Manning’s when the Giants hoisted it following the 2007 season. You usually need to start the whole season to lead the league in picks, too. Of the 34 quarterbacks who have either won or shared the interception title in the seasons since 2000, only five missed more than one game.

Of course, there are some bad quarterbacks who have stayed on the field long enough to throw league-pacing picks. Carson Wentz and Drew Lock shared the award in 2020 on only 12 and 13 games, respectively. DeShone Kizer got 15 games in 2017 to earn the Browns’ starting quarterback job, threw 22 interceptions and never got a second opportunity. But Kizer teaches us an important lesson:

Lower-tier quarterbacks have to be unbenchable: Kizer was backed up by Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler, so the Browns couldn’t have pulled the plug on his interception numbers if they tried. Sam Howell in 2023, Blake Bortles in 2015 and Davis Mills in 2022 were all given long runways, too. This is why rookie quarterbacks such as Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams lead the odds. They’re young, so they might be bad and throw a ton of picks — but they’re also going to start Week 1 and might accumulate the 17 games needed to finish atop the category.

Upper-tier quarterbacks need volume and aggression: When clear starters — such as 2021 Stafford, 2018 Roethlisberger or 2012 Brees — lead the league in picks, they often do it because they’re among the league leaders in passing attempts. It also helps if they’re throwing the ball downfield, as that’s where we expect picks to occur. Eli Manning was regularly pushing the ball downfield in his interception-heavy years, and when Wentz and Lock posted top interception numbers in limited games, they did so because they were leading the league in average depth of target, too.

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Intriguing candidates

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (2.1% implied probability)

Since 2021, Josh Allen leads the league in interceptions (47). Tied for second on that list with Lawrence is … Mahomes! The logic is pretty easy, though: The Chiefs are one of the pass-happiest teams in football, and Mahomes is never getting benched.

Of course, Mahomes’ interception rate over that period is 1.8%, which is below average. He has been extremely good at avoiding picks in his career, and it’s fair to assume that will continue this season. But it’s also fair to remember Prescott had interception rates of 1.5%, 1.8%, 1.8% and 1.7% in the four seasons before his 3.8% rate in 2022, when he led the league in picks with 15. If we expect Mahomes to be among the league’s leaders in pass attempts this year, we should also be wary of a spike interception season.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (3.0% implied probability)

I love getting a potential repeat offender here, as we’ve seen many quarterbacks appear multiple times on this list. Stafford has a high average depth of target, and his job will never be taken from him in Los Angeles, as he led the league in picks in his first season with the Rams and still gave them everything they wanted as a Goff replacement. The only concern here is a lack of requisite passing attempts, as the Rams increasingly become a run-first team in this new era of the McVay offense.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (10.5% implied probability)

This is an ideal candidate in the Bortles/Kizer/Lock/Mills lens — a young player who has been given the starting job for a year and will do with it what he will. Levis didn’t play nearly enough last season (255 attempts) to give us a peek at his NFL play style, but we do know that new coach Brian Callahan ran a fairly pass-happy offense in Cincinnati when he was the offensive coordinator there.

Could Levis get benched? His backup is Mason Rudolph, so I’d be surprised.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (5.7% implied probability)

Among quarterbacks who have started at least 50 games since 2018, nobody has thrown interceptions at a higher rate than Darnold (3.1% of dropbacks). Usually, that would mean you aren’t starting games anymore (Jimmy Garoppolo and Andy Dalton are right behind him on the list). But Darnold is in line to start every game for the Vikings this season following J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending meniscus surgery.

If you told me Darnold played all 17 games, he’d be my favorite to lead the league here. Heck, I might take him for 30 picks, matching the infamous 2019 Winston season. But I’m worried he’ll be sat for a few Nick Mullens games. (Mullens, by the way, leads the league since 2018 in interception rate for quarterbacks with at least 20 starts. I don’t know why Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell is doing this to himself, but he’s sure doing it!)

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Solak’s predicted chances on the 2024 interceptions leader

1. Josh Allen, Bills: 10%
2. Will Levis, Titans: 9%
3. Sam Darnold, Vikings: 8%
4. Matthew Stafford, Rams: 7%
5. Caleb Williams, Bears: 6%
6. Jayden Daniels, Commanders: 6%
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: 6%
8. Derek Carr, Saints: 5%
9. Bryce Young, Panthers: 5%
10. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 5%
11. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: 5%
12. Jordan Love, Packers: 4%
13. Joe Burrow, Bengals: 4%
14. Jared Goff, Lions: 3%
15. Brock Purdy, 49ers: 3%
16. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: 2%
17. Daniel Jones, Giants: 2%
18. C.J. Stroud, Texans: 2%
19. Dak Prescott, Cowboys: 2%
20. Geno Smith, Seahawks: 2%
21. Bo Nix, Broncos: 1%
22. Anthony Richardson, Colts: 1%
23. Deshaun Watson, Browns: 1%
24. Kirk Cousins, Falcons: 1%