On “Sunday Night Football,” the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year takes on this season’s favorite as CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans host Caleb Williams (+165) and the Chicago Bears.

After a 3-13-1 campaign, the Texans drafted Stroud No. 2 overall in 2023 and went from the AFC South’s cellar to division champions last season. The Bears, coming off a 7-10 season that left them tied with Minnesota for worst record in the NFC North, are hoping for a similar turnaround under their first-year quarterback.

The Texans (-320 to make the playoffs) narrowly defeated the Indianapolis Colts last week and are a near favorite going into Week 2 against the Bears (+115 to make the playoffs), who defeated the Tennessee Titans last Sunday thanks to their defense and special teams.

Odds are current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Distribution: Texans -6.5
Moneyline: Bears (+225), Texans (-275)
Over/Under: 45.5

Spread first half: Texans -3.5 (-115), Bears +3.5 (-105)
Total points Bears: 19.5 (More than -110/Less than -120)
Total points for the Texans: 26.5 (More than -110/Less than -120)

The props

Passing

CJ Stroud total passing yards: 274.5 (Above +110/Below -140)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (Above -145/Below +115)
Caleb Williams total passing yards: 224.5 (More than -105/Less than -125)
Williams’ total touchdowns: 1.5 (More than +150/Less than -200)

to hurry

Total rushing yards for Joe Mixon: 69.5 (More than -115/Less than -115)
D’Andre Swift total rushing yards: 44.5 (Above +105/Below -135)

Received

Nico Collins total receiving yards: 69.5 (More than -100/Less than -130)
DJ Moore Total Receiving Yards: 59.5 (Above -145/Below +115)
Total receiving yards by Stefon Diggs: 49.5 (More than -125/Less than +105)
Tank Dell Total Yards Received: 59.5 (Above +110/Below -140)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 29.5 (More than -120/Less than -110)

Favorite Choices

Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards (-110), Mixon 1+ TDs (-140), Caleb Williams under 224.5 passing yards (-125); All three parlayed (5-1)

With a balanced offense featuring an elite rushing attack, the Texans went on the road in Week 1 and defeated a tough Indianapolis Colts squad with playoff aspirations. The Bears won their season debut at home against a rebuilding Tennessee Titans team despite an anemic passing attack and a rushing defense that was consistently hollowed out by the Titans. Those trends are all in play here.

While Stround and the Texans’ passing attack were effective against the Colts, Houston relied heavily on Mixon to lead the offense on the ground, and he responded with a career-high 30 carries for 159 yards and a touchdown. Defenders will have to respect Stroud’s elite passing, which gives Mixon light fronts to exploit with his powerful running. The Bears, meanwhile, gave up 103 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries to the Titans’ running backs, illustrating the unit’s potential weakness against what was a far less balanced and potent offense than the one they’ll face on Sunday.

On the other side of the ball, rookie quarterback Williams struggled through the air against the Titans in his regular-season debut, completing 14 of 29 passes for just 93 yards despite facing a defense that ranked 21st in the NFL with a defensive FPI of -0.3. The Texans are stronger on that side of the ball, ranking 11th in the league in defensive FPI. In Week 1, they held Anthony Richardson to just 9 of 19 passes for 212 yards, more than half of which came on two long touchdown passes. Williams is still early in his development and it’s unlikely he’ll make enough of a leap between Weeks 1 and 2 to more than double his passing yards on the road against a better defense. — André Snellings

Betting trends

Thanks to ESPN Stats & Information

• “Sunday Night Football” unders are 27-10 over the last three seasons. Prime-time unders are 71-44-1 during that span.

• The Texans have not finished as a favorite by at least 6 points since Week 16 of 2020 (-7.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals).

• The Texans are 6-16-1 ATS favorites since 2019, with Stroud being 3-5 ATS favorites.

• The Bears are 11-17 ATS as underdogs under head coach Matt Eberflus (14-27 ATS since 2021).

• Since 2020, the Bears are 5-10 ATS in primetime games.

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