This loss was so bad that it felt final, like the 49ers were getting their last rites for the 2024 season. Technically, the 49ers’ playoff chances aren’t dead yet, but that day is fast approaching.

The Niners’ collapse in 2024 isn’t just about increasingly unlikely playoff scenarios and costly injuries, it’s about the year’s common thread. Undisciplined play with grueling penalties and fatal turnovers. Inexplicable decisions by Kyle Shanahan to ride Christian McCaffrey and sit on Jordan Mason, not to play his rookie receivers. An offense that got out of rhythm to open and close games in the red zone, areas where they were the best in the league a season ago.

The Niners are about to play some of the best NFL players. San Francisco has the second-toughest schedule in the league to end the season. Yet the team takes on that challenge without confidence or momentum; there is no consistency, no progress in execution, nothing to build on. The 49ers are adrift.

Shanahan can point to injuries and the game in Green Bay was particularly brutal, with arguably the team’s three most important players in Brock Purdy, Trent Williams and Nick Bosa. Yet it was the starting offensive linemen and special teams mainstays who committed the penalties. Five clumsiness. Deebo Samuel with two drops, one of which led to an interception. The defense drops two catchable picks. Sloppy execution is a team-wide problem.

As for the game itself, the Niners only trailed 17-7 at halftime, thanks to Green Bay’s Christian Watson dropping what should have been a touchdown. Three 49er turnovers in the second half were all converted into touchdowns and the game became a blowout.

GAME BALLS

George Kittel – He came back from injury to make six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown in the red zone.

Leonard Floyd – He produced a season-high two sacks with Bosa out.

CRIMINAL FLAGS

These can be given to most of the team, but the person most responsible for the loss is Shanahan.

The first two drives were three and out, blown up by penalties for Dominic Puni. Seven second-half possessions outside of endgame possessions included a field goal, an interception, two fumbles and three drives that ended with a punt or turning the ball over on downs. A success rate of 14%.

THE VIEW FROM 10,000 FEET

The Niners don’t improve as the season progresses. That happens when your three most important players are out, but the execution is stuck. Good teams improve throughout the season, bad teams stagnate.

Given the tough closing schedule, I’ll have the Niners finish 8-9. They could make a pride check and recover, but there is no evidence to back this up, just belief.

If the Niners exit the playoffs, changes will have to be made. I don’t believe this means Shanahan should be fired as head coach. He has made the Yorks a significant amount of money. However, Shanahan, the de facto GM, could lose final personnel control. Some will point to his draft success this year, but the Yorks may be looking at the expensive extensions and money they had to pay up front – and what the team has to show for it.

In my next column I will discuss 2025 in more detail.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Playoffs??!!?

Division – The Niners achieved a breakthrough in the division when Seattle defeated Arizona. The Cardinals now need to sweep their next two division games (Seattle and the Rams) to win the tiebreaker over the Niners. If Arizona loses one of those games, the Niners can beat the Cards in the season finale and have a shot. The 2nd tiebreak is regular opponents. Arizona’s game next week is huge, Minnesota. If the Cards beat the Vikings, the Niners will likely lose the second tiebreaker.

Wild card – Green Bay and Minnesota defeated the 49ers head-to-head. So the Niners only have a chance at 3rd place. Washington lost to Dallas in a crazy game. The tiebreaker is the winning percentage in conference games.

The Commanders are 5-3, the Niners 3-5. Washington ends the year with four NFC games: New Orleans, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Dallas. The Niners play Chicago, the Rams, Detroit and Arizona. Washington should win at least two of the remaining four, putting them at 7-5. This means the Niners must win their remaining four NFC games, including Detroit, to tie. Not happening.

The thing to watch for is Washington winning two more NFC games, which likely closes the door on the Niners in the wild card.

NEXT

Buffalo. In Buffalo. Where the Sunday forecast calls for 33 and snow. Now that the Bills are saying their goodbyes. That’s an L.