For desperately optimistic San Francisco 49ers fans, there will be a path through this unforgiving remaining maze to the playoffs.

They will point to the extremely tight race for the NFC West crown, which could remain in the balance until the final week of the season. They will be crossing their fingers with injuries, hoping that three of their top four players – quarterback Brock Purdy, defenseman Nick Bosa and offensive tackle Trent Williams – will all come out of the tunnel next week and turn everything against the Buffalo Bills (9 -2). And they certainly won’t be thinking about how eerily similar this campaign has become to the 2020 season, when San Francisco was beset by health and identity issues after a Super Bowl loss last season that led to a wildly disappointing 6-10 record that inspired an eventual roster reshuffle.

On that last point, it’s hard to ignore the symmetry of that lost 2020 season. Those 49ers were 5-6 entering December, looked like a shadow of their former selves and hosted the Bills in a game that felt like it was the last best chance to save the season. San Francisco lost 34-24, in a game that was never actually as close as the score suggested. By the end of it, it was clear that the season was over and the 49ers still had a lot of work to do.

A week from now, the same could and probably be said about the 2024 49ers, who look nothing like the team that emerged from last season’s Super Bowl defeat. You can pick any 10-minute step within Sunday’s excruciating 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers — the 49ers’ worst defeat under Shanahan since 2018 — and find alarming features everywhere. A team that couldn’t dictate the run or find anything explosive throwing the football. A defensive front that got punched in the ear by Packers running back Josh Jacobs on his first carry of the game and never seemed to recover. A general lack of focus that led to nine penalty kicks, several of which occurred at critical moments. And an overwhelming presentation of disappointing football that suggests that these 49ers will not recover, just like the previous edition that lost in a Super Bowl last season.

“The whole game was (disappointing),” Shanahan said afterward. “Just to name the biggest (disappointment): the first half, just the defense of the points was really disappointing. … For them to be able to control that clock in the first half was one of the worst I’ve been a part of so far.”

Shanahan uttered a repetition of the word “embarrassed” several times during his post-game press conference, applying the label to the entire team, which seemed like the appropriate response to a loss that is half a lesson and half a warning.

The lesson: The 49ers are as mortal as any team that can’t survive without a starting quarterback, elite edge rusher and tone-setting offensive tackle. When they get hurt, they are vulnerable, especially against top-tier NFC teams like the Packers.

And the caveat: let this be the standard that ends all talk about how Shanahan can make it work each quarterback in his plan, especially if it’s a one-play situation. It’s a misconception that has been proven before, but is also easily and repeatedly forgotten whenever anyone dares insert Purdy’s name into a conversation about the league’s best QBs. Yes, he has had his ups and downs this season. But rarely has the offense looked so flat and seemingly intent on shooting itself in the foot.

If anything, the Packers loss is a snapshot of what life can be like when you don’t have a reliable quarterback running Shanahan’s offense. It certainly wasn’t just Purdy’s absence, but the inability to find any solutions over the course of the game certainly had something to do with the quarterback spot. It turns out that the system usually looks best when the quarterback who fits and controls that system is the one in the driver’s seat. That’s food for thought this offseason, when conversations will inevitably occur about the cost of Purdy’s contract extension versus his true value to the franchise.

That is of course a conversation for later. For now, the focus is on what this loss means for the 49ers. With the Los Angeles Rams’ loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, the NFC West remains in the hands of the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals – both are 6-5 and simultaneously battling to see who will win the division and who will try to achieve victory. qualify for the NFC’s final wildcard slot. At 5-6, the 49ers aren’t exactly in disarray when it comes to the postseason, but even if the math is still up for grabs, the spirit of what’s leading up to it is problematic.

Purdy was already having consistency issues before his latest shoulder soreness knocked him out of the game against the Packers. There’s no telling how big of a problem it will be when (or if) he returns. While it’s certainly suggestive that the 49ers needed to win against Green Bay in a game, his shoulder was a big enough concern to sideline him. The same goes for Bosa’s hip and Williams’ ankle. Both may be on the verge of returning, but neither is guaranteed to play at their top level – for a team that now needs them to play at a high level. And if that wasn’t enough, two other key players, defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and offensive guard Aaron Banks, both left Sunday with concussion concerns.

Now, with the loss to the Packers, comes the intersection of these health concerns heading into the most cross-country of all cross-country road games: Sunday night’s primetime game against a streaking Bills team. A franchise that will be well-rested, coming off a bye week and sneaking into the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs after a convincing win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. While those types of wins usually bring some fear of a league disappointment would bring next game, the bye week and postseason seeding stakes for the Bills effectively guarantee they’ll be ready to rock.

If we’re being honest about what the 49ers are dealing with from a schedule perspective, the time to win was against the Packers. Their failure to win on Sunday makes this game against the Bills and subsequent games a pseudo-playoff game. Basically, that’s where the 49ers are. They compete in a single-elimination postseason tournament this week. And after the Bills, it’s the Chicago Bears (who are still working through their own issues but are getting better), the Rams (who beat the 49ers in September), the Miami Dolphins (who are a handful with Tua Tagovailoa back under center ), the Detroit Lions (Super Bowl favorites, winners of nine straight games and looking for revenge for the NFC title game loss) and finally a road game against the Arizona Cardinals, who are no longer pushed.

If we want to alleviate San Francisco’s problems, we don’t have to address the injuries, focus and inconsistencies within games. We can just look at that uphill break – which at this point is more like climbing Mount Everest – and it tells us everything we need to know.

The 49ers’ 2024 season is over. We just haven’t seen it play out yet.