This is Anthony’s Weather Lab newsletter that came out last week. You can subscribe here.

It’s Monday, and although this newsletter is usually sent on Tuesday, I’ll get to your inbox a day early due to the tropics.

History is on our side:

In a hurricane season full of oddities, it’s perhaps no surprise that a November storm is now headed toward the Gulf of Mexico. When the Hurricane Center’s cone includes Southeast Texas, our concerns naturally begin to rise. The good news is that history is on our side: Houston has not been hit by a November storm since records began. (The last storm to hit us was Hurricane Jerry, a Category 1 on October 15, 1991.) That said, we’ll still have to keep a close eye on this one. Here are my thoughts.

Strong Gulf storms in November are rare:

Hurricane season officially runs through November 30, so it’s not entirely surprising that we’re still tracking storms. What’s a little rarer, however, is tracking a hurricane moving toward the Gulf of Mexico – which will likely happen soon with what will be named Hurricane Rafael. The last November hurricane in the Gulf occurred in 1985. Hurricane Kate reached Category 3 status in the Gulf before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm on November 21. We haven’t seen a hurricane in the Gulf since Kate in November. , that was almost 40 years ago.

Is there any possibility of the storm reaching Houston?

In my experience, you never say never. The weather has a way of humbling even the most seasoned meteorologists, but there are a few factors that work in our favor. First, Rafael is expected to reach hurricane status within the next 48 hours, and could briefly become a major Category 3 storm as it moves into the Gulf. Caribbean waters are still very warm and wind shear remains low, both of which could initially strengthen the storm. However, as Rafael enters the Gulf, it will encounter stronger wind shear and cooler waters, which should help weaken the Gulf. The red color indicates strong winds.

Historically, one of the main reasons we don’t see storms in our area after October 15 is because of cold fronts. And luckily another front will move in on Tuesday. This front lingers close to the coast, creating a block that prevents Rafael from coming directly our way. My only concern is that this front will not last beyond Thursday, which could leave a small gap. High pressure in the Atlantic Ocean sends Rafael into the central Gulf of Mexico. The Storm Tracker 2 team will keep a close eye on this for you.

Where Rafael should end up:

Wind shear appears to be the main driving factor for this storm. Once it encounters this shear, it should start shifting eastward. Gulf water temperatures also play a role, with the path of least resistance currently pointing toward Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

An interesting twist comes from the European model, which projects a possible course toward Mexico. On the map below, you will see that the blue area represents the likelihood of rain moving across the southern Gulf. While this is an outlier, it remains possible if high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean loses its influence as the storm moves into the Gulf.

This may not be our last Gulf storm in November. While we watch what could be Rafael moving towards land (you can see the model for Saturday below), another low is currently moving east of Florida towards the Sunshine State and could have an impact next week.

My next newsletter is scheduled for Friday, but if there are significant developments in the tropics, I will return to your inbox sooner.

Until then, we’ll keep you updated online at click2houston.com, on TV and via the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker app, which you can download for free to your phone.