The projected path for Hurricane Rafaelwhich is a Category 2 hurricane over Cuba on Wednesday, has changed dramatically. Since Monday’s forecasts believed the storm would make landfall in the United States near Louisiana, models for Nov. 6 show a wide spread in the storm’s track over the next seven days. Several weather experts and trackers don’t agree on where it’s going, other than the fact that it’s moving toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s what we know so far about Hurricane Rafael’s path for the rest of the week.

What is the path of Hurricane Rafael?

While most trackers still show Hurricane Rafael moving past Florida and toward Louisiana, conditions in the Caribbean have many models predicting it will move further west toward Mexico and Texas.

Compared to models earlier this week, Hurricane Rafael is moving westward, although the extent of its path has changed greatly. As shown in the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) tracker above, the possible paths run as far south as the Bay of Campeche and as far east as Florida.

The good news is that the hurricane is still forecast to weaken into a tropical storm or tropical depression when it eventually makes landfall in Mexico or the US.

One of the most persistent models comes from a Wednesday report from Accuweather, which projects the storm will move west before eventually turning north and hitting central Louisiana at 7 p.m. ET on Monday.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) changed its model, stating in a report at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday that it will still be in the Gulf on Monday. The storm is forecast to move toward the Mexico-Texas coastal border several days later, spreading more harmlessly in the Gulf before reaching land.

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