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AFC North Whiparound: How does Russell Wilson change the division?

Vaseline October 29, 2024

By Jeff Zrebiec, Mike DeFabo, Paul Dehner Jr. and Zac Jackson

Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North beat writers gather for a roundtable discussion on the happenings, player movement and pressing issues facing all four teams. With the trade deadline looming and some major changes on offense, let’s jump into it.

Russell Wilson made his Steelers debut Sunday and was, in Mike Tomlin’s words, “excellent.” For the first time in weeks, there’s no QB controversy in Pittsburgh. Instead, people are asking how far the 13-year veteran can take the Steelers. How does Wilson’s insertion into the lineup change the AFC North and the Steelers’ ceiling, if at all?

Jeff Zrebiec (Baltimore Ravens): I really don’t think it changes the complexion of the AFC North. The Steelers are always in the mix in December, and I felt that would be the case whether starting Wilson or Justin Fields. Regardless of their QB, they have a knack for winning games. They are always well coached, they have a few elite defensive players who make game-changing plays every week and they excel in a few areas on special teams, too. Maybe, Wilson raises their ceiling a little bit. He’ll certainly give George Pickens more opportunities for chunk plays. But they also lose Fields’ running threat. Put me down on the side of wanting more time/evidence to evaluate. Wilson was pretty impressive in his first start and has a track record, but I’m not yet ready to say he’ll make the Steelers a more imposing opponent in January.

Mike DeFabo (Pittsburgh Steelers): Wilson might not be at the same level he was during his nine Pro Bowl seasons in Seattle, but the Steelers aren’t asking him to be. As Jeff said, the Steelers have a ferocious, turnover-inducing defense. That’s the strength of this team and it will continue to be. After the past two games, during which Najee Harris eclipsed the 100-yard mark, it also seems they’re finding the reliable running game that was promised. The support around Wilson feels similar to his best years in Seattle. If the veteran can play turnover-free like he’s often done and connect on well-timed deep shots to Pickens, he’ll give the Steelers the best quarterback play they’ve had in years. For a team that had a winning record with Duck Hodges at QB and made the playoffs with Mason Rudolph last year, that might be enough for its first playoff win since 2016.

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Paul Dehner Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals): Can I get an extension on this answer? I’d like to see one more week before drawing any clear conclusions. Wilson absolutely looked the part and made you think about the possibilities with the Steelers if he actually proves to be the answer. That would put them in the conversation to do more than just win the North with that defense. I just know we’ve been fooled by Wilson before, going up and down while in Denver and the end of his tenure in Seattle. Let me see Monday night against a tough Giants defense and get back to you.

Zac Jackson (Cleveland Browns): If I knew Wilson was going to be healthy, I’d be willing to say the Steelers are definitely a playoff team — and one that could mix in Fields as a change of pace to late-season game plans. I’m not sure he’s going to stay healthy, but I still think the Steelers will be what they’ve generally been: a team that’s difficult to play against and will be there at the end, but probably not a top-tier AFC team. Let’s revisit all of those things in about a month, though. Remember, Browns fans, the entire AFC North will be featured on “Hard Knocks” in December!

The Nov. 5 trade deadline is rapidly approaching. We’ve already identified the buyers and the sellers in this division. What could change your team’s plan?

Zrebiec: The question is not whether the Ravens will be buyers — or, I should say — shoppers. General manager Eric DeCosta will try to make a deal, but he won’t act desperately or have much appetite for absorbing a big contract. That will be the case regardless of what happens over the next week and a half. What could change is what’s on DeCosta’s shopping list. The prevailing belief is that the Ravens would like a player to improve their struggling defense. That could be an edge rusher (arguably the preference), a defensive lineman or a defensive back. However, if the Ravens lose a key player over the next two games, that would impact what they’re targeting. They have a good roster, but there are a few positions where they’d be in a tough spot if they were to sustain a major injury.

DeFabo: Everyone knows the Steelers could use a receiver. The only question is whether they’ll actually pull the trigger, and when. Rams wideout Cooper Kupp would be a stylistic fit with his willingness to block and ability to run the full route tree. He’d also provide a veteran voice to a young and inexperienced receiver room. Jets receiver Mike Williams is another who could round out the room. He wouldn’t cost as much but also probably wouldn’t make as much of a splash. But remember in any discussion about trades: GM Omar Khan is a tough negotiator who prefers to give his best offer and stand by it. I imagine he’d like to upgrade but isn’t going to sacrifice the long-term vision. We’ll have to see whether other WR-needy teams out-bid the Steelers and whether any other options materialize.

Dehner: The Bengals are one more offensive tackle injury away from having to make a move. They have three offensive tackles on injured reserve, and Orlando Brown Jr. is working his calf back to health and questionable for this weekend. They can piece it together with Cody Ford this week, but if another injury happens, they have to think about pulling a deal for a stable tackle to protect Joe Burrow. Their depth is nonexistent at this point.

Jackson: The Browns have to be sellers, and they have to start to plan for a multiyear rebuild. That’s the fallout of both the Deshaun Watson experiment and poor drafting, both of which led to this all-in season that long ago went sideways. The folks in charge of the Browns have to be willing to have uncomfortable conversations about trading Myles Garrett, who turns 29 in December. I think it’s too late for anything that happens in the next 10 days to really affect the Browns’ long-term direction. But moving Garrett would be something that would require sign-off at multiple levels and a clear commitment to the future.

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Would the Browns really consider trading Myles Garrett? (Jason Miller / Getty Images)

The Browns shook things up this week when Kevin Stefanski handed over play-calling responsibilities to Ken Dorsey. Meanwhile, the Steelers hired Arthur Smith this offseason, the Ravens are 24 games into the Todd Monken era and it seems there’s always chatter about whether Zac Taylor should pass on play-calling duties to a coordinator. How has the play caller of the team you cover done this year?

Zrebiec: In the first couple of weeks, it seemed Monken was still trying to find an identity for his group and how to best utilize Derrick Henry behind an inexperienced offensive line. He’s clearly figured it out. The Ravens are either at or near the top of the league in a litany of offensive categories. You could make the case that they have the best offense in football. Over the past five weeks, all Baltimore wins, they’re averaging 35 points and 479 yards per game. Monken has been suburb in how he’s attacking the weaknesses of opposing defenses and using all the weapons at his disposal. If this keeps up, he’s going to be a top candidate for one of the many pending head coach vacancies this offseason.

DeFabo: Smith inherited an offense that was frankly broken, was incorporating several new starters and had massive question marks at quarterback. Give him credit for playing to Fields’ strengths by designing game plans that gave the 25-year-old QB easy completions and took advantage of his dynamic mobility. Smith was also able to pivot, calling an excellent game in Wilson’s debut. The start of the season wasn’t as “fluid” as Tomlin would have liked. But the running game is finally clicking, and Smith has found ways to maximize the strengths of both of his QBs. It certainly says something that the Steelers put up 30-plus points in back-to-back weeks with two separate QBs with different styles and strengths behind center.

Dehner: You have officially made the Bengals readers shift and move to the edge of their seats. Despite an offense that ranks in the top five in most major categories, it still feels like the Bengals aren’t playing to their potential on that side of the ball, specifically in the last two weeks against New York and Cleveland. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins look phenomenal, Joe Burrow appears capable of winning MVP if they go on a run, the line is probably the best Burrow’s had and even the tight ends have become a weapon. So, how do you explain just 31 points in the last two weeks combined? They need to produce a better early script, but there does not appear to be a move away from Taylor calling the plays anytime soon.

Jackson: The Browns are a mess, quite obviously. But this change of play callers is the first real signal that Stefanski’s job status is uncertain, despite signing an extension before the season. For years, Stefanski has publicly and privately resisted giving up the play-calling duties. He’s been a good play caller, and even at times when other areas of the team were a bit messy, he was able to guide the Browns out of them. For Cleveland to make a quarterback change this week and then announce a surprise play-caller change, well, that’s a sign that decisions are being made over Stefanski’s head. What can this really save now? What’s next? We’ll be watching closely.

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Let’s get to the picks. Will the Ravens roll past the Browns? Can the Steelers go into their bye with an easy win over the Giants, or is a letdown looming? And the big test this week: Will the Bengals fight back to .500 with a win over the underperforming, but talented Eagles?

Zrebiec: I don’t think the Ravens are going to roll the Browns. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Browns pull off the upset, given myriad factors, including the Ravens being on a short week, their defense playing more than 80 snaps Monday and Jameis Winston throwing the ball all around the yard against a struggling secondary. I’ll give the nod to the Ravens because it’s too hard to go against Jackson right now, but I expect it to be a tight game. The Giants stink, so the Steelers should win relatively comfortably. I think that Bengals-Eagles game has a lot of potential. I’ll say the Bengals win on a late Evan McPherson field goal. When in doubt, go with the team that needs the game more, and that’s the Bengals.

DeFabo: I consider the Ravens one of the top two or three teams in the AFC and still believe they’ll win the division. I like them to win Sunday, but for some reason, I think the Browns can cover the nine-point spread. (See, I said something nice about the Browns!) The Steelers could be primed for a letdown game, but the Giants are just too bad offensively for me to give that any consideration. They should go into the bye week at 6-2. And I just can’t quit Joe Burrow, even if I have questions about the team as a whole. I like the Bengals to win and for people to start talking about their potential even more.

Dehner: I’ll continue to contend the Ravens are the best team in football, and the argument that Cleveland might be the worst is gaining steam. Baltimore rolls. The Giants have problems on offense, but their defensive line can eat. I’d be worried about that matchup in the trenches if I were Arthur Smith. That said, Pittsburgh’s defense might outscore Daniel Jones. Steelers win. I have the Bengals winning via an Eagles turnover and a McPherson field goal late. Philly is a remarkably similar team to Cincinnati, so I’d be stunned to see anything but a nail-biter here.

Jackson: It’s lonely down here at the bottom. I can’t pick the Browns to win, but I do think they’ll play well and keep it close — at least for a while. I’ll take the Ravens in a close and relatively low-scoring one. I think the Steelers will survive a bit of a rock fight, 23-16, and I think the Eagles will escape Cincinnati with a win, 27-26.

(Photo: Barry Reeger / Imagn Images)