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Allan Lichtman reaffirms his prediction for the 2024 presidential elections

Vaseline November 6, 2024

Historian Allan Lichtman mentioned Nate Silver’s latest prediction for 2024, despite both predicting Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump.

Historian Allan Lichtman confirmed his 2024 election prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat former President Donald Trump, and called out fellow forecaster Nate Silver, despite sharing the same expected outcome.

Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, shared a post on X on Monday saying, “Nate Silver’s compilation of polls is so unreliable that he now says who will win the presidency is a matter of luck. “

The 77-year-old historian is responding to an X-post Silver shared on Monday, in which he explains how his final election prediction could be determined by “luck.”

“It could literally get into the range where who is ‘ahead’ in our final prediction is determined by luck, Silver’s post reads. “There is still a little bit of variance introduced by running ‘only’ 40,000 simulations (tonight we will perform 80,000). but still…).”

Silver’s Bulletin Prediction vs. Lichtman’s ’13 Keys to the White House’

Silver’s latest prediction for the 2024 presidential election had Harris winning by a razor-thin margin after she won 40,012 of a total of 80,000 simulations.

Lichtman, on the other hand, uses his ’13 Keys to the White House’ system to determine who will win the election. He expressed his confidence in his system in a separate X-post on Monday, writing: “Mark my words… The keys will be right again!”

Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. His only blemish came in 2000 when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

‘I have a flock of crows in my stomach’

Especially this election year, Lichtman said he is quite nervous because of the vulnerability and the relatively new democracy.

“In the entire history of humanity, there has been almost no democracy,” Lichtman said in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel. “Peoples were ruled by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood. Democracy is a very recent development.”

In addition to his comments on democracy, Lichtman said: “I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach. This year I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

What are Lichtman’s 13 keys?

Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House” include:

Key 1 (party mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party’s nomination.
Key 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent party’s candidate is the incumbent president.
Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant third party or independent party campaign.
Key 5 (short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Key 6 (Long-term economy): Real economic growth per capita over the term is equal to or greater than the average growth during the previous two terms.
Key 7 (Policy Change): The incumbent government influences major changes in national policy.
Key 8 (Social Unrest): There is no ongoing social unrest during the term.
Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent government is not tainted by major scandals.
Key 10 (Foreign/Military Failure): The incumbent government has had no major failures in foreign or military affairs.
Key 11 (Foreign/Military Success): The incumbent government is achieving great success in foreign or military affairs.
Key 12 (incumbent charisma): The incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.