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The stories that matter about money and politics in the race for the White House

Don’t bet a dollar on the US elections. With such small odds you would have to risk a lot for a small advantage. However, you can bet a lot that America will be as divided after the election as it was before. Whether the winner is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the close connection between race and race stems from deep American polarization. A large majority of American voters would walk over hot coals before voting for the other candidate. Half the country will treat the winner like a fraud.

The last time America had such a close election was in 2000. Those were quieter days. The Florida recount was nonetheless ended by a controversial Supreme Court ruling. Imagine how such a dispute would unfold in 2024. Instead of the “Brooks Brothers riots”—where eligible Republican men flew in to disrupt Miami-Dade County’s recount—militias would gather on disputed sites. The weaponization of election counting is now a feature of American life.

Only one of the four outcomes on November 5 would likely produce old-fashioned American governance. That would mean that Harris wins the White House, while the Democrats retain the Senate and retake the House of Representatives. A Democratic victory would allow governing to resume and limit Trump’s ability to contest his defeat. But this is the least likely scenario. The presidential and House races are both toss-ups. The Senate map is heavily skewed toward Republicans.

The second is that Harris wins the presidency, but the Democrats lose the Senate. Even if Democrats regained the House, Republicans could — and would — block her nominations and bills in the Senate. Harris’s domestic agenda would be dead on arrival. Global instability would make foreign policy an unattractive alternative. A narrow victory for Harris would also increase the risk of a constitutional crisis. Hundreds of Republican lawyers are working on challenges to a Harris victory. Last weekend, Trump predicted that “radical left-wing lunatics” would steal the election. They should be handled by the National Guard and “if really necessary, by the military,” he said. Unlike in 2020, Trump has no control over either. But he will use every tool available to overturn a Harris victory.

The third is that Trump regains the White House as the parties trade control of Capitol Hill – Republicans regain the Senate; The Democrats retake the House. The 2024 election map makes that more likely than the reverse. Either way, Trump could push through much of his agenda. Divided government always works better for Republican presidents than for Democrats. But one Democratic-controlled chamber could still put a brake on Trump’s most radical plans.

The final scenario is a Republican trifecta. This is about as unlikely as a Harris sweep. I’d give each about a one in five chance. A Maga stranglehold on Washington would take America into uncharted waters. All three branches of government would be in Trump’s corner. He already has the 6-3 Supreme Court on his side. The court recently ruled that the US president has criminal immunity from virtually all “official” acts, including killing his opponents.

You don’t have to believe that Trump would go to such lengths to see the statement as a green light to do what he wants. Without judicial or legislative brakes on his actions, Trump would view it as a sweeping license to go after his enemies. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, last week described him as “fascist to the core.” Milley is one of several ex-Trump officials who have been labeled a traitor by the former president. Trump’s Maga appointees would use the mandate to implement Project 2025 – the Heritage Foundation’s plan to turn the US into an illiberal democracy.

The question is what could end the country’s domestic cold war in the first place. Most Americans would say the only solution is for the other side to surrender. Trump should be thrown in jail; liberals need to repent of their mental illness; and so forth. There can be no question of a division of the difference with evil. For Trump, defeat could ultimately mean a prison sentence. For Democrats, a Trump sweep could end hopes of regaining power in a fair election.

Because both sides believe the worst of the other, they are playing for the future, and not just for the next four years. It is difficult to look at the US numbers, or sense its mood, and imagine an easy end to the impasse. Other democracies experience large swings in party loyalty. Virtually nothing in the US – be it assassination attempts, a change in presidential candidate or terrible debate performances – turns the switch. The 2024 race is a battle between mutually hostile Americas.

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