The Huskers had a golden opportunity to shine on the national stage. They could have shown that they were a different kind of Nebraska football team than people had been used to for the past decade. They didn’t deliver.

As I said in my preview, this felt like a game that had the potential for a classic Nebraska cursed game. A lot of the same old stories came back: one-score losses, scoreless overtime, losses to a ranked team, and bad, unnecessary penalties. Illinois looked better coached and more disciplined than the Huskers. Going into the game, Nebraska looked ahead of the Matt Rhule rebuilding schedule. While 3-1 feels disappointing, it’s the same spot he was in Year 2 with Temple and Baylor. Friday night showed that the foundation he’s building is solid, but he still has a long way to go to become a great team.

Painful win probability charts have become an icon of Nebraska football over the past six years. After a blistering five-minute drive following Ceyair Wright’s forced fumble, Nebraska’s win probability peaked at 85.8% per Game on Paper. A throw that was just too long for Luke Lindenmeyer and a missed field goal would shave off 37.1% of Nebraska’s chances to win.

That was a well-executed drive that I think came down to questionable coaching decisions. Jahmal Banks, Isaiah Neyor, and Thomas Fidone II were all off the field for that third down call. Dylan Raiola has great timing with all three of those pass catchers. The play design was great and it was executed pretty well. Nebraska replaced its reliable targets with a group that has three catches all season. That play call makes coaches look brilliant when it works. Nothing is smarter than letting Dylan Raiola throw to the guys he trusts.

Illinois and Nebraska went into that game as two evenly matched teams and were pretty evenly matched on paper. Two stats jump out to me that I think decided that game. Illinois made five more explosive plays (EPA on passes >2.4, EPA on rushes >1.8) than Nebraska. If we take away Illinois’ seven explosive plays, Illinois would have been one of the top five offenses in college football at -0.23 EPA/play. In my UTEP evaluation, I was concerned about how well the Huskers could defend against big plays. Illinois was a more complete team that took advantage of that to win.

The other big stat was the difference in average starting field position. Illinois started drives an average of 12 yards ahead of the Huskers. Illinois would need an average of about 25 yards per drive to get within range of a field goal. However, Illinois doubled what it needed and the average drive would end with a goal-to-go situation. They also captured 88% of their available yards all night. If the Huskers’ defense isn’t as strong as it is in 2023, the special teams will have to force opponents to have longer fields.

In a way, this game justified the panic people had during the first three games. Many of the worst parts of those games came together against Illinois, resulting in a loss. However, some improvements can be made midseason to keep the goal of a bowl game in sight.

The special teams problems are solvable or avoidable. Nebraska can improve its kick coverage units to make opponents make more honest catches. Nebraska can eliminate the risk of missed field goals by treating everything between the opponent’s 25 and 40 yard line as four-down territory. It needs to play more disciplined football and avoid stupid penalties.

The Huskers are well underway in their rebuild under Matt Rhule and have plenty of opportunities to show what a third-year Rhule team could look like.

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