CNN
—

A new tropical system with the potential to become Tropical Storm Sara is expected soon and it is worth monitoring its effects in the Caribbean, Mexico and the United States.

Strong, upper-level storm-disturbing winds protected the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Rafael last week, but it could create an opening for tropical problems to reach the U.S. next week.

It’s another example of an Atlantic hurricane season that hasn’t followed the rules. Tropical activity should decrease in November, but this could be the third named storm this month, thanks to exceptionally warm water caused by climate change.

For now, it’s a new area of ​​stormy weather just south of Jamaica, with a high chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.

The system could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane as it moves over the very warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea – the same water that fueled Rafael. Winds should drift toward Central America and stall in the area this weekend and early next week.

The forecast scenarios vary drastically from there and depend on how close the system comes to the Central American coast.

There are a few possible scenarios on the table about how formidable the storm could be and whether it could reach the US next week.

It could make landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua this weekend and worsening while over land, cut off from the warm water that fuels it. This scenario would bring high winds and a deluge to Central America, but could keep the storm out of the US.

A storm that stays very close to the coast of Central America but does not make landfall would still produce heavy rainfall there and could eventually form in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week. It would likely be a weaker storm, which could soften the blow if it reaches the US.

But if the system stays a little further offshore and over extremely warm water, it could strengthen significantly – and possibly intensify quickly – as it stalls.

Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently the second warmest on record – just behind the record-breaking heat of 2023. They are warmer than they should be at the height of hurricane season and may continue to produce unusually strong storms. Warmer bodies of water create stronger storms and faster intensification as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

It could then make a gradual turn northwest, heading toward Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula or Cuba, possibly reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf is record warm for this time of year and could boost or sustain any system that reaches the Gulf.

This scenario would lash parts of Honduras, Nicaragua and surrounding areas with heavy, flooding rains and damaging winds for days before the system moves away early next week. Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula or Cuba could be next in line for similar impacts, depending on how strong the system becomes and how sharp the turn it makes.

This scenario is also the most worrying for the US. A stronger system in the Gulf of Mexico could take flight toward Florida next week.

This year, five hurricanes have hit the U.S. Gulf Coast.

If this system were to make landfall in the US, it could challenge the newest hurricane ever to make landfall. The current record is held by Hurricane Kate, which made landfall in Florida as a Category 2 storm on November 21, 1985.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but storms have formed in December in the past.