Back in the rankings after four years, No. 23 Army returns home Saturday in an AAC league battle against East Carolina in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Once again, the Black Knights rely on a superior rushing attack, a unit that ranks No. 1 in the country with 370 yards per game, while Bryson Daily is first among FBS quarterbacks with 738 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.

East Carolina has lost three of its last four games after a 2-0 start and is 5-13 since the start of last season, ranks 82nd in FBS in scoring output at 26.5 points per game, and ranks nationally 97th in rushing production.

What do the analytics suggest for this OC matchup?

Before that, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to get a taste of how Army and East Carolina stack up in this Week 8 college football matchup.

As expected, the models favor the Black Knights over the Pirates in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Army will beat East Carolina by an expected score of 34 to 17 and win the game by an expected margin of 17 points.

The model gives the Black Knights a high 85 percent chance of winning the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? Year to date, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win rate after going 26-26 (50%) this past weekend.

Army is a 16-point favorite against East Carolina, per FanDuel Sportsbook rules.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And it set the odds for Army at -700 and for East Carolina at +500 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you must take into account…

The majority of bettors are taking the Black Knights to dominate the Pirates, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

More than 8 in 10 bettors (81 percent) predict Army to win the game impressively and cover the spread.

The remaining 19 percent of bettors expect East Carolina to either win on an upset or keep the game within the generous line.

Other analytical models suggest the Black Knights will easily beat the Pirates this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Army is expected to win the game outright in an overwhelming 87 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves East Carolina as the projected winner in the remaining 13 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest prediction, Army is expected to be 17.2 points better than Eastern Carolina on the same field, also enough to cover the spread.

Army is first among AAC teams with a 25.3 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.5 games this season, according to FPI statistics.

That model gives East Carolina a total win prediction of 5.6 games and a 53.3 percent chance of making a bowl game this season.

When: Saturday October 19
Time: 12:00 Eastern
TV: ESPN2 Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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