The round-robin legs of the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, Italy enter their final matches. After nine matches, with all but one of them being straight sets victories, only one of the eight singles players in the tournament has qualified for the semi-finals.

At the start of the tournament, world number 1 Jannik Sinner was drawn alongside world number 4 Daniil Medvedev, while world number 3 Carlos Alcaraz was drawn alongside world number 2 Alexander Zverev.

Taylor Fritz, the US Open finalist who lost to Sinner in New York, was also included in the Italian’s group alongside Australian Alex De Minaur, making his ATP Tour Finals debut; Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, who qualified as world number 9 after Novak Djokovic withdrew, completed the second group.

The draw meant that Sinner and Alcaraz both had to qualify first (or second) in their groups to avoid facing each other in the semi-finals. Alcaraz lead their head-to-head 3-0 in 2024, with each match going to a deciding set, although Sinner was victorious in the final of the Six Kings Slam in Saudi Arabia, which was not an ATP-sanctioned event.

With Sinner’s group today (Thursday, November 14) and Alcaraz’s group tomorrow (Friday, November 15), it was still all to play for – even if some scenarios would require some very bizarre results. When Fritz came from a set down in the afternoon session on Thursday to beat De Minaur 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, Sinner’s qualification was guaranteed, sending De Minaur out of the tournament. Sinner’s match with Medvedev will decide the qualification for second place.

Daniil Medvedev has had a tough time against Jannik Sinner in recent encounters. (Antonio Calanni / Associated Press)

Qualifying permutations for the ATP Tour Finals: Ilie Nastase Group

With two wins from two, Sinner qualified after Fritz won against de Minaur in three sets. Medvedev now needs to beat Sinner in straight sets to qualify for the American.

Qualifying permutations for the ATP Tour Finals: John Newcombe Group

The situation is identical in the John Newcombe group. Thanks to Zverev’s two wins, he is almost certain to qualify; only if Alcaraz beats him in straight sets and Ruud does the same to Rublev, he runs the risk of being eliminated.

For Rublev to have any hope, he must beat Ruud in straight sets and hope Zverev does the same with Alcaraz. In that scenario, Zverev would qualify as the group winner, with the other three’s positions determined by their games won percentage.

The main intrigue is between Alcaraz and Ruud, with qualification likely coming down to a margin of victory or defeat: a two-set win against a three-set win or a two-set defeat against a three-set defeat. Whoever achieves the better result will qualify together with Zverev.

How does the ATP Tour Finals draw work?

The eight players who qualified were divided into four pots for the draw. Pot 1 is No. 1 and No. 2, Pot 2 is No. 3 and No. 4, and so on.

These placements follow the rankings of the players in the ‘ATP Race to Turin’, the table that only counts ranking points earned in 2024.

Each player then plays three round-robin matches. The top two players from each group compete in the semi-finals, with the winners meeting in the final.

This year, Andrey Rublev qualified as the eighth player, despite being number 9 in the race. Novak Djokovic, who was ranked No. 6, withdrew from the Tour final with a “persistent injury,” so Rublev took his place as the second-highest ranked player.

Who won last year’s tournament?

Djokovic won the 2023 ATP Tour Finals in Turin, beating Sinner 6-3, 6-3 in the final to avenge a round-robin defeat to the Italian. The victory heralded a brilliant season for Djokovic, who won three of the four Grand Slams in addition to the Tour final. This year he will miss the event without an ATP Tour title to his name.

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What is the prize money for the ATP Tour Finals?

The total prize money is $15.25 million (£11.76 million), which is a record for the event. The prize money is allocated per match won and is structured so that the champion will take home $4.88 million (£3.78 million) if he goes through the event undefeated with five wins (three round-robin wins, a win in the semi-final and then the victory in the match). the final).

The winner of the final will receive $2.24 million (£1.74 million), while the winner of each semi-final will receive $1.12 million (£870,000); the prize for a win in a round-robin match is $396,500 (£307,100) and each player will receive $331,000 (£256,000) just for their attendance at the event, provided they complete all their round-robin matches.

The winner’s prize is bigger than any of the four Grand Slams, with the US Open being the biggest with a prize of $3.6 million (£2.77 million). It is also the same size as the pool for the WTA Tour Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but is structured slightly differently, with the winner there taking home more than $5 million (£3.87 million).

(Top photo by Jannik Sinner: Tullio Puglia / Getty Images)