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Battleground states presidential election and early voting results 2024

Vaseline November 3, 2024

Electoral College Ratings

NBC News’ Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races being held in November. Several factors are taken into account when determining ratings, including historical election results, election polls, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (if applicable), political advertising data, and qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.

Battlefield states

Arizona

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Republican Party	2%
1996	Democratic Party	2.2%
2000	Republican Party	6.3%
2004	Republican Party	10.5%
2008	Republican Party	8.5%
2012	Republican Party	9.1%
2016	Republican Party	3.5%
2020	Democratic Party	0.3%
Biden won by 0.3 points in 2020

Why it’s important

Donald Trump won Arizona by almost 4 percentage points in 2016, but lost the state to Joe Biden by less than half a percentage point in 2020. Polls this year show that Trump and Kamala Harris are statistically tied.

Georgia

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Democratic Party	0.6%
1996	Republican Party	1.2%
2000	Republican Party	11.7%
2004	Republican Party	16.6%
2008	Republican Party	5.2%
2012	Republican Party	7.8%
2016	Republican Party	5.1%
2020	Democratic Party	0.2%
Biden won by 0.2 points in 2020

Why it’s important

Donald Trump won Georgia by about 5 percentage points in 2016, but lost to Joe Biden there in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes. This year’s race is a toss-up, with Trump and Harris statistically tied in the polls.

Michigan

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Democratic Party	7.4%
1996	Democratic Party	13.2%
2000	Democratic Party	5.1%
2004	Democratic Party	3.4%
2008	Democratic Party	16.5%
2012	Democratic Party	9.5%
2016	Republican Party	0.2%
2020	Democratic Party	2.8%
Biden won by 2.8 points in 2020

Why it’s important

Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, surprising Democrats in a state Republicans had not won since 1988. Joe Biden won there in 2020, beating Trump by 3 percentage points. Now that Kamala Harris and Trump are statistically aligned, it’s a “toss-up” heading into Election Day.

Nebraska District 2

Presidential results, 2008-2020

Margin in percentage points

Why it’s important

Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote each to its two congressional districts, and the second district has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is leaning toward Democrat Kamala Harris in the polls this year.

Nevada

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Democratic Party	2.6%
1996	Democratic Party	1%
2000	Republican Party	3.5%
2004	Republican Party	2.6%
2008	Democratic Party	12.5%
2012	Democratic Party	6.7%
2016	Democratic Party	2.4%
2020	Democratic Party	2.4%
Biden won by 2.4 points in 2020

Why it’s important

Democrats won Nevada in the past two presidential elections — but polls and voting trends in the state have made it an attractive target for Donald Trump in an effort to swing states in his direction. Kamala Harris and Trump are aligned and the state is considered a toss-up.

North Carolina

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Republican Party	0.8%
1996	Republican Party	4.7%
2000	Republican Party	12.8%
2004	Republican Party	12.4%
2008	Democratic Party	0.3%
2012	Republican Party	2%
2016	Republican Party	3.7%
2020	Republican Party	1.3%
Trump won by 1.3 points in 2020

Why it’s important

North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 2008, but Kamala Harris’ campaign has targeted the state as one it can win, buoyed by its large black population. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by 3 percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point.

Pennsylvania

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Democratic Party	9%
1996	Democratic Party	9.2%
2000	Democratic Party	4.2%
2004	Democratic Party	2.5%
2008	Democratic Party	10.3%
2012	Democratic Party	5.4%
2016	Republican Party	0.7%
2020	Democratic Party	1.2%
Biden won by 1.2 points in 2020

Why it’s important

Pennsylvania is emerging as the most critical battleground state in the 2024 elections. Donald Trump won the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and lost it by about 1 percentage point in 2020. Kamala Harris has remained competitive there and the state is classified as a ‘toss’.

Wisconsin

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Margin in percentage points

Year	Winning party	Margin
1992	Democratic Party	4.4%
1996	Democratic Party	10.3%
2000	Democratic Party	0.2%
2004	Democratic Party	0.4%
2008	Democratic Party	13.9%
2012	Democratic Party	6.8%
2016	Republican Party	0.8%
2020	Democratic Party	0.6%
Biden won by 0.6 points in 2020

Why it’s important

Wisconsin is a “toss-up” battleground state that swings back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point. Joe Biden won there in 2020, also by less than 1 percentage point.

Results of previous presidential elections

Electoral College Results, 1992-2020

1992B ClintonG.H.W. Bush

Voting margin by state in the 2020 presidential election

The circle size represents the number of electoral votes in that state.

The expected vote is the total number of votes expected in a given race once all votes have been counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several factors, including information about the number of early votes cast and information provided to our voting reporters by county election officials on Election Day. This figure may change as NBC News gathers new information.

Source: National Electoral Pool (NEP)

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