The Baylor Bears will face the St. John’s Red Storm in the opening game of the Bahamas Championship. The winner of this matchup will play the winner of Tennessee and Virginia in this mini 4-team tournament. Baylor has gotten back on track since their opening night loss to Gonzaga, winning three straight games, including an impressive 72-67 victory over Arkansas. For the Johnnie’s, they have lived up to the hype so far as they have a perfect 4-0 record, including a comfortable win over the New Mexico Lobos. This should be a fun match between two talented teams, but there is an edge to be had on one side.

After Baylor’s embarrassing loss to Gonzaga, where they gave up 101 points, coach Scott Drew decided an immediate change was needed on defense. The adjustment he made against Arkansas was the switch to his 1-1-3 zone that he made famous in the early 2010s. This gave a below-average shooting team in Arkansas some real problems, and it could cause St. John’s similar problems. Drew also made a point of slowing the pace and preventing transition opportunities, an area where the Red Storm also thrive. Forcing St. John’s to become a jumpshot-dependent team should do wonders for a Baylor team that hasn’t been great at playing man-to-man.

Baylor also has opportunities for success on the offensive end, and that starts with the offensive glass. They are 15th in the country in offensive rebound percentage, led by Norchad Omier, and they can exploit the only real weakness the Johnnies have defensively (166th in defensive rebound percentage). The Bears should also have success in the pick-and-roll game with their plethora of guard options, and St. John’s has done a poor job of defending these plays to start the season (19th percentile vs. pick-and-roll handler, per Synergy ).

These factors, along with the Bears being tested away from home, should give them the edge over a Red Storm team that hasn’t left the friendly confines of New York this season. Unless St. John’s is an outlier on shooting day, Baylor’s defense matches up well when playing in their zone, and they have more scoring talent. Back the Bears in the Bahamas Thursday night.

Baylor -2.5 (-105) available at time of publication. Playable on that song

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