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Best betting odds and pitching props
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Best betting odds and pitching props

With no outs markets available – for good reason – Josh Inglis focuses on the Under 4.5 hits allowed for both Mets LHP Jose Quintana and Brewers SP Tobias Myers, as neither figure will stick around for very long .

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com

October 3, 2024 • 10:30 AM ET

• 4 minutes reading

Jose Quintana New York Mets MLB

Photo by – USA TODAY Sports

Corners, edges, rip-offs, call them whatever you want. If you bet on pitcher props early, there are always a handful as you dig into the matchups.

With this article, I’ll highlight the top pitcher angles to look at for that day’s list and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You may not come to the same conclusion as I did with the bet, but the data is the most important part.

Let’s highlight some MLB player props and starting pitcher corners for Thursday, October 3.

Josh’s best starting pitcher edges: October 3

  • Mets Quintana u4.5 hits allowed (-105)
  • Brewers Myers u4.5 hits allowed (-145)

Today’s best SP angles

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The angle: Both teams are going to empty the tanks in the bullpen.

There’s no reason for either team to let their starters play long unless they’re dealing, which still favors the Under 4.5 hits for both pitchers.

Tobias Myers initially didn’t have a long line as the rookie set career-highs in innings pitched. He threw out exactly 12 outs in three straight games to end the season, including a 56-pitch one-hit performance against these New York Mets in his final start.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen will settle in today and Myers’ Under 4.5 hits allowed is a buy for me at -155. He projects hits under 4.00 allowed on 72 pitches, according to THE BAT.

On the other hand, Jose Quintana Under 4.5 hits allowed at -105 is a more reasonable buy. He projects 4.3 hits allowed on 79 pitches, but that could be his ceiling. Over his last ten starts, he has allowed just 0.8 hits per inning and Milwaukee is one of the lighter lineups in the playoffs.

Luis Severino threw more than 100 pitches in the series opener, but that was an extension of the bullpen’s workload in Monday’s doubleheader. The pen has been reset and the Mets may only need Quintana for twelve outs as they need to get guys like Edwin Diaz the ball considering the closer hasn’t even appeared in the series yet.

If either starter fails early, both managers will have a Plan B ready, as neither club wants the same fate as the Braves suffered yesterday when they shelled Max Fried in the second inning.

It’s a low-volume play with no out-markets to exploit.

The Move: Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-117 at Caesars)

The Move: Tobias Myers Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-150 at DraftKings)

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Josh Inglis - Covers

Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting industry, specializing in the MLB, NHL and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivatives markets, finding it easier to beat the closing line compared to sides and totals. His compelling analysis and content has been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific gambler, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and consistently sharing his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is known for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are an integral part of the site’s live content lineup.

Before joining Covers, Josh taught for ten years while also dabbling in sports media. He has also contributed to live broadcasts at the senior level for the WBSC.

Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by getting ahead of the crowd in the market. He also recommends having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds. His preference is bet365, which he prefers for its extensive range of player markets and live betting.