In the final game of Week 9, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City, Missouri, on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 PM ET on ABC/ESPN). The Chiefs (7-0) sit atop the AFC standings and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET (+400). Despite Mahomes’ shaky play this season, the Chiefs’ offense has remained strong, leaning on a rushing attack led by Kareem Hunt and a physical defense.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-4) look to bounce back after losing consecutive games in Weeks 7 and 8 to the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons, respectively. Tampa Bay enters the game with several key players out with injuries, including Mayfield’s top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. As such, the Chiefs opened early last week as 8.5-point favorites as the line has since risen half a point to Chiefs -9. The total for the matchup remains the same at 45.5 points.

Here’s everything you need to know to bet on Buccaneers-Chiefs and Seth Walder’s favorite bets for the game.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Leaders -9
Money line: Chiefs (-450), Buccaneers (+340)
Top/Bottom: 45.5

Distribution over the first half: Chiefs -5.5 (-110), Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline first half: Chiefs (-320), Buccaneers (+240)
Total points for Buccaneers: 26.5 (over -105/under -125)
Total number of chefs: 20.5 (over -110/under -120)

Seth Walder’s choice

Nick Bolton under 8.5 tackles + assists (-118)

Bolton has a tackle rate of 14% – meaning he records a combined tackle on 14% of his defensive plays – which is almost exactly average for an off-ball linebacker. Like most linebackers, Bolton has a much higher tackle rate on opponent-designed runs (20%) than opponent dropbacks (11%). And in this case, Bolton should expect fewer runs from the opponent: the Chiefs are 9-point favorites, meaning the Bucs are likely to play from the back and therefore pass regularly. Plus, the Bucs are pass-heavy anyway: Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest success rate above expectations in the NFL, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. My model predicts 7.5 tackles + assists for Bolton.

The props

Pass

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (over -110/under -120)
Mahomes’ total passing TDs: 1.5 (more than -120/less than -110)
Baker Mayfield total passing yards: 224.5 (over -155/under +120)
Mayfield total passing TDs: 1.5 (over +135/under -170)

Rush

Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: 59.5 (over -140/under +110)
Bucky Irving total rushing yards: 34.5 (over even/under -130)
Rachaad White total rushing yards: 29.5 (over +105/under -135)
Mahomes total rushing yards: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)
Mayfield total rushing yards: 69.5 (over -125/under -105)

Received

Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 59.5 (over -130/under even)
Cade Otton total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -130/under even)
Jalen McMillan total receiving yards: 39.5 (over -120/under -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -115/under -115)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 34.5 (over -125/under -105)
Noah Gray total receiving yards: 24.5 (more than -105/less than -120)
Rachaad White total receiving yards: 24.5 (over -125/under -105)
Justin Watson total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)
Bucky Irving total receiving yards: 19.5 (over +115/under -145)

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including 8-2 ATS as road underdogs.

• Five consecutive Buccaneers games have exceeded that total.

• Patrick Mahomes is 22-28 ATS in his career and has at least seven points (0-2 ATS this season). The unders are 29-19-2 in Mahomes starts at home, including 14-6 over the past three seasons.

• Baker Mayfield is 5-10 ATS in primetime games. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in primetime games this season.

• Underdogs of at least six points are 21-12 ATS this season. Underdogs of at least seven points are 14-6 ATS. 7-9 point underdogs are 14-1 ATS this season.

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