Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga isn’t the blockbuster matchup some might expect on Saturday during Mexico’s celebratory Independence Day weekend. Instead of pitting David Benavidez against the man who has been his mandatory challenger for the past two years, Canelo has chosen Berlanga as his opponent in a fight that feels more like a financial gamble than a competitive one.

Though undefeated, Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) is an inexperienced contender who only has a one-punch shot against Canelo. A knockout win for Berlanga seems far-fetched considering Canelo’s chin is nothing short of granite. Canelo has never been dropped as a pro, and the last time he was injured was in a May 2010 win over Jose Miguel Cotto. Furthermore, his experience is monumentally far above Berlanga’s. Canelo will be fighting in his 42nd 12-rounder and his 25th fight for at least one major world title. He has fought three Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers.

ESPN ranks Berlanga as the fifth-best super middleweight in the world after the biggest win of his career against Padraig McCrory by sixth-round knockout in February. It was Berlanga’s first knockout in two years after he began his career with 16 straight first-round knockouts. In today’s boxing, title fights are often handed out even to fighters coming off losses. In contrast, a fighter can be rated as a No. 1 contender and still not get a title shot. Champions often opt for low-hanging fruit — low-risk opponents, prioritizing financial gain over competitive matchups. This trend diminishes the prestige of championship opportunities.

Canelo-Berlanga is definitely business. I wonder if Berlanga could even beat some of the other contenders in his division, fighters like Caleb Plant, Diego Pacheco, Christian Mbilli and Jamie Munguia. Canelo, even at the end of his career, is a tough call for the Puerto Rican. Berlanga will likely be a student, just like Munguia was when he fought Canelo in May.

Let’s take a look at the Canelo vs. Berlanga match, what each fighter does well, and what their chances of winning are.

The match-up

More often than not, experience determines the outcome of fights. Berlanga is an up-and-coming contender with potential, but his track record isn’t all that impressive. He’s been shaken, injured, and knocked down by lesser opponents than Canelo. In 2021, Marcelo Caceres was able to floor Berlanga with a left in the ninth round of a fight that Berlanga went on to win by unanimous decision.

There’s no doubt that Berlanga has a big heart and a lot of pride. But Canelo is an elite pound-for-pound fighter who has seen every style of boxing in his illustrious 19-year career. Canelo’s wealth of knowledge and ability to dominate and control the center of the ring are exceptional. That was especially on display in his last outing against the talented, all-action Munguia, who is similar in size to Berlanga’s 6-foot frame and 72-inch reach.

Canelo’s experience advantage comes from having faced numerous high-caliber opponents throughout his career. His maturity in the ring is evident in his tactical, technical approach, his adaptability and his controlled demeanor under pressure. Canelo delivers punches with pinpoint accuracy and power, is equipped with a diverse selection of punches and knows how to control an entire fight round by round, minute by minute and second by second.

Berlanga has pop on his punches, but he still navigates the complexities of boxing’s upper echelons. These include pacing, energy management, on-the-fly adjustments and reading tendencies to manipulate opponents into doing what he wants them to do.

His inexperience can lead to poor decisions and frustration. In 2022 against Alexis Angulo, Berlanga, under immense pressure in a fast-paced fight, bit Angulo in the neck. He received a six-month suspension from the New York State Athletic Commission for that incident. Berlanga was also warned for an intentional elbow foul in his last fight against McCrory, again while under pressure. Canelo’s offense will increase if he senses discomfort or frustration in Berlanga’s body language and lack of resistance.

Understanding Berlanga’s Game and Style

Berlanga is essentially a high-handed, tense, and loaded fighter who thrives on maintaining a comfortable pace and safe range of attack. His success depends on his ability to control the ring using techniques such as a vertical jab (thumbs up), pull counter right hands, and one-two combinations (jab and backhand cross). Defensively, he relies on stepbacks, occasional slip counters, a high guard, and a catch-and-punch countering system. However, Berlanga is vulnerable to uppercuts and body shots when defending on the inside because he leans forward over his front knee when under fire. During his lateral movement, he crosswalks and cross steps (moving his lead left foot first when moving to the right, and vice versa).

Berlanga’s lateral movement can be both an advantage and a disadvantage against Canelo, who excels at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. But when done right, ring generalship can offset Canelo’s high-guard defense system by forcing him to reset on his feet, creating counterattacks. Berlanga’s looping punches can work against Canelo’s defense, especially around the guards and with punches underneath, such as the uppercut through the high guards.

Under heavy pressure, Berlanga’s mentality changes significantly as his coveted space is compromised. This could be a disadvantage against Canelo, a master at closing distance and imposing his will on opponents. Berlanga’s ability to handle this pressure is something to watch out for.

Berlanga is by no means a bad fighter, and he has improved since reuniting with his old trainer, Marc Farris, a true student of the game. With a solid amateur background, Berlanga understands the fundamental boxing philosophy of hitting without getting hit.

How can Berlanga win?

Berlanga has recently developed valuable patience in the ring, becoming more calculated and a defensive-minded boxer-puncher. He now sets up a variety of punches, including a leading left uppercut from an inside slip and a powerfully timed overhand right to the head. He anticipates his opponent’s disengagement and strikes when they reposition themselves. Against a champion like Canelo, however, he must up his game, believe in his game plan and execute it while mitigating his weaknesses and mistakes.

Canelo is heavy on his front foot as he slowly marches forward, loading his lead (left) leg for his infamous left hook off slip counters, level changes and high guard traps. An excellent jab, combined with probes, stance-breaking jab controls, lateral movement and excellent defense can disrupt Canelo’s powerful attack. Keeping Canelo off balance and continually resetting his feet is extremely important for Berlanga, as punchers like Canelo prefer stationary targets over elusive ones.

It would not be a wise strategy to out-punch Canelo in a punch-for-punch frenzy. Not many fighters can match Canelo’s precision and punching power. Berlanga needs to out-box Canelo and out-think him, build his mindset through rigorous training, and use fear to catapult his performance and skills to pull off this surprise. I wonder how much of Berlanga’s mindset is focused on trying to win and how much he truly believes he can win, because that’s important. After all, Canelo believes he will win, which is why he picked Berlanga. This fight gives the champion a competitive edge with his experience, pre-fight visualization, and knowing how to turn fear into a superpower.

How can Canelo win?

Canelo’s fighting style is built around the most important criteria for scoring a fight: effective punching. His boxing style offsets Berlanga’s boxer-puncher approach. It’s a high-pressure counterpunching style that delivers hard, heavy punches with precise placement. He sets up his offense with high guard kicks, slips, step-backs, and feints. Canelo can win this fight with his experience, taking advantage of what Berlanga gives him. I suspect Berlanga will use his jab a lot, but I’ve noticed a pattern in Berlanga’s jabbing: he throws a single mid-range jab, then promptly positions himself in range to be countered with a right cross or left hook. Range recognition is something Berlanga struggles with. Sometimes he’s at the right distance to land a strike, but more often than not, he either overcommits or falls forward, staying on his front foot in position to be countered.

Berlanga isn’t great at mirroring level changes. When a fighter lowers his center of gravity, the correct response should be to also lower your height. Typically, a level change is followed by an upstairs setup shot. Let’s say a fighter is standing while his opponent is changing levels, and he doesn’t move quickly out of range. That fighter becomes an easy target for a level change counter because he anticipates a body punch, subconsciously lowers his guard, and gets stuck in to receive a devastating upstairs counter.

Note Canelo’s annoying level-changing lead left hook or lift right-hand feint — shifting his weight onto his lead left leg while getting his head offline to deliver his most powerful blow, the left hook to the head or body. I can see Canelo’s left hook being a useful weapon in the fight, taking advantage of Berlanga’s hyperextended backhand (keeping the backhand forward, away from the face), anticipating a jab but receiving a left hook.

Who wins?

I always say fighters can predict the future. We know what we can and can’t handle. Berlanga thinks he can handle Canelo. He has to prove it on fight night. Compared to Canelo’s veteran skills, Berlanga’s inexperience will be the deciding factor, not his advertised punching power.

I think Canelo will win, with the possibility of a late TKO.

Ian Parker’s best guess:

Currently at -2000 (according to ESPN BET), Alvarez will be looking for another win against Berlanga and add to his extensive resume. I have no doubt Canelo wins here, but at -2000 we have to look at rounds and props to get any value. Alvarez is better everywhere in this fight, from speed to power to experience, so for me it’s not a matter of if he wins, but how and when. At -125, I’m taking Canelo to take it via TKO. As the fight progresses, his body work will take its toll on Berlanga and he’ll eventually get the job done.