In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega And Diego Lopes meet on saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze the lines of BetMGM Sportsbook around the UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes Oddsand make our expert picks and predictions.

Preliminary action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main event begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Running (25-6-0)

These two fighters were supposed to face each other at UFC 303, but as they were preparing to move up to lightweight, Ortega couldn’t make the cut and the fight was scrapped after it had even begun. Instead, Lopes met Then Ige and won in an epic battle.

Ortega opened his UFC career with an undisputed victory over Mike de la Torre July 26, 2014. It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a decade as he’s won 6 straight since that no contest, including a KO/TKO in the first round of Frankie Edgar at UFC 222.

He lost a title fight against Max Holleway at UFC 231 in a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, while also falling Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in the main event. He was knocked out in the first round by Yair Rodriguez in the main event in July 2022, but bounced back with a third-round win over Rodriguez last time out.

Lopes has won 4 straight since a unanimous decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his corporate debut. He has 3 finishes, including a submission and 2 KO/TKO’s, with a unanimous-decision win over Ige at UFC 303.

Lopes comes in with a 3.5 inch reach advantage, while Ortega holds a slight edge of 4.07 to 3.24 significant strikes per minute. Lopes is far more accurate, however, landing 62.54% of those strikes, compared to just 40.39% for the veteran Ortega. Lopez also has a 3.68 submission average, so it would behoove Ortega not to take the guy to the mat.

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes Odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; visit USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for full listings. Lines last updated at 12:35pm ET.

• Battle Result (2-way line): Ortega +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Lopes -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Above -125 | Below -105)
• Will the fight hold? (Yes +100 | No -135)

UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes Picks & Predictions

Fight Result (2-way line or moneyline)

Lopes (-200) will cost you twice your potential return, which is just a bit too expensive against a wily veteran like Ortega.

If you want action in this fight, go with LOPES BY TKO/KO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) on the 5-way line for a chance to multiply. If you want to eliminate submission, bet LOPES BY TKO/KO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way line can help you win 2½ times your initial bet.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THIS FAR? is a strong game as we are looking for a Lopes win via knockout. In fact, playing UNDER 2.5 LAPS (-105) is a bit cheaper and isn’t a bad bet either.

Ortega has only gone the distance twice in his 12 fights at the UFC level, and one of those was in a title fight. Lopes has only gone the distance twice in his last 7 fights, so going under is a good move.

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