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Here’s a look at how Schmidt and Buehler performed during both of their shortened seasons.

Schmidt was limited to just 16 starts this season due to a lat strain that kept him out for more than three months, but was stellar when he was on the mound with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP overall. He made five starts in the regular season after returning from injury, where he had a 3.65 ERA, 3.69 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP with 26 strikeouts and ten walks in 24.2 innings pitched. He has thrown a total of 9.1 innings this postseason, most recently in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Guardians. He allowed two earned runs in 4.2 innings, allowing five hits and two walks with two strikeouts, and had a very similar outing against the Royals in the ALDS, also going 4.2 innings while earning two points allowed. Almost no one on the Dodgers saw Schmidt, while Ohtani only saw him a few times and homered off him once.

Schmidt lives outside the zone quite often, with only about 40% (nearly the 25th percentile) of his pitches landing in the strike zone. This can be a good strategy, but every now and then you will come across teams that will make your life difficult if you are not willing to get into the zone more often. His stuff is good, and he limits hard contact in the zone, so he should probably try to stay ahead of the hitters and trust his stuff, as throwing free passes against this offense is asking for trouble. The Dodgers didn’t run Cole or Rodon, so Schmidt’s game plan should be similar to theirs (though it didn’t necessarily work for Rodon).

He had some pretty pronounced splits in 2023, with a 1.65 strikeout rate, 4.85 FIP and 18.0% strikeout against an 8.4% walk rate against left-handed hitters, compared to a 1.10 strikeout rate, 4.05 FIP and a strikeout rate of 24.9% vs. 4.9. % walk rate against right-handed hitters. The splits have all but disappeared this season, with nearly a third of the lefties he has faced striking out, albeit with a higher walk rate to match. He throws four pitches, and more or less he throws them all to left- and right-handed hitters. He relies on a 92 MPH cutter as his primary offering, throwing it 35% of the time and sometimes favoring it over lefties. He also throws a sinker just above 94 MPH 21% of the time, resulting in two different variations of “fastballs.” It has a knuckle curve and a mid-80s sweeper, with the curve moving and falling significantly more than the average curveball, with the sweeper moving more like a traditional slider.

Buehler has now made two starts this postseason, his first being a relative shellacking in San Diego that he didn’t necessarily earn, resulting in six earned runs in 5.0 innings. As I noted in my NLCS Game 3 preview: “He gave up a very legitimate home run Fernando Tatis jr.but it’s entirely possible that Buehler could have had a five- or six-inning start with two or fewer earned runs. Instead, it was five innings and six earned runs. Buehler has struggled mightily this year and he deserved a much better performance from his defense in that outing. Either way, it is a thing of the past and relatively unimportant now.” Indeed, it turned out to be inconsequential, as he had a great start against the Mets, going four innings, allowing no runs on three hits and two walks with six strikeouts. It wasn’t perfect, but it gave the Dodgers time to take the lead, and his stuff looked its best all year. His 18 whiffs generated were a season high and his throws were truly moving in the cold New York weather. He gets a fresh start in similarly cold October air, a situation he has thrived in throughout his career.

“Buehler is in a transformation phase as a pitcher. The playoffs and World Series aren’t the ideal time to attempt this kind of transformation, but if anyone is going to have success with it, it’s Buehler. He has appeared in major matches in the past and Dave Roberts is a true believer in Buehler’s fortune – even this version from him.”

He pitched 88.2 innings in the postseason, with a 3.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 107 strikeouts, and two of his best career postseason performances came in the World Series. In Game 3 of 2018 against the Red Sox, he pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits with seven strikeouts in the 18-inning game that the Dodgers ultimately won. In the 2020 World Series Game 3, he pitched six innings against the Rays, allowing just one earned run on three hits and one walk, with ten strikeouts. He will look to keep his record of Game 3 World Series appearances going tonight.

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Not much pregame news. Brent Honeywell Jr. did speak to the media at the place where the next day’s starter usually speaks, but claims he does not know if he will start tomorrow. The use of bullpen games will likely depend on how Buehler does today.

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The first pitch is at 5:08 PT on FOX.