BYU’s second season in the Big 12 is about to begin. Saturday night, 3-0 BYU hosts 3-0 and No. 13 Kansas State at Lavell Edwards Stadium. BYU will wear throwback white uniforms in honor of BYU’s 1996 football team, and the crowd will also wear white. It’s a whiteout after dark in Provo.

The Wildcats are favored by one touchdown going into this game. Today we take out our crystal ball and predict BYU vs. Kansas State.

First of all, we feel like we have a good feel for this team for three games. Let’s explain.

Of all the games this season, this one is by far the toughest to predict. Avery Johnson is making his first conference road start. BYU has had a revolving door at running back due to injuries. Kansas State’s secondary hasn’t been great at defending the pass. BYU is one of the best teams in the country against the pass, but the Cougars haven’t had a dominant passing attack. There are more questions than answers leading up to this game, and we’ve been going back and forth all week.

There are a few things BYU needs to do to win this game.

BYU needs to get Avery Johnson to convert first downs with his arm. Johnson hasn’t proven he can dissect a defense with just his arm. He’ll be able to pick up some yards with his legs — he’s arguably the best running quarterback BYU will face this season. But if BYU can keep Kansas State behind the sticks and force Johnson to throw, BYU has a shot at winning this game.

On offense, BYU needs to let Jake Retzlaff throw the ball. Allowing chunk-yardage plays through the air is the primary weakness of Kansas State’s defense. The Wildcats have allowed:

Only Cam Ward (Miami) and Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) have more completions of 20 yards or more than Jake Retzlaff. Long, sustained drives will be hard to come by in this game. BYU will need to pick up some chunk yards.

At the same time, Jake Retzlaff has to be smart and protect the ball. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where BYU gives up the ball multiple times AND walks away with a win. Retzlaff has been plagued by turnovers throughout his BYU career. That needs to stop on Saturday.

Gaining yards on the ground will be a challenge. KSU is one of the better run defenses in the country and BYU could start its third or fourth-string running back. BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick will have to get creative to stay in front of the sticks. BYU has had too many 3rd & long situations this season. If the run game isn’t working, BYU will have to get creative to pick up 3-7 yards on first and second down.

Finally, BYU must make Kansas State work for their touchdowns. What does that mean? Kansas State has returned more kicks for touchdowns than any other team in college football over the past 20 years. BYU must not allow a special teams touchdown. They also must not allow a defensive score — something BYU struggled with a year ago.

I think this is the game where Jake Retzlaff turns doubters into believers. Retzlaff will have to be creative and make plays that aren’t in the script.

Ultimately, I think the environment will be the deciding factor in this game. It’s a night game under the lights at Lavell Edwards Stadium and it will be a whiteout.

I think the first team to get to 24 wins this game. BYU pulls off the upset.

BYU 27 | Kansas State 23