The timing of Sasaki’s eligibility – which has yet to be determined, sources say – will determine whether he falls into the 2024 or 2025 international amateur class. When a player is drafted, he has 45 days to sign with a Major League team. Although Sasaki would join an organization on a minor league deal, a team could add him to the major league roster before the 2025 season.

The international amateur bonus pools are limited, with the top teams able to spend just over $7.1 million this year, the larger teams with higher spends $4.6 million and the rest in between. Teams can add up to 60% of their allocated pools by trading for other teams’ bonus pool money. Most teams have already spent the majority of their 2024 bonus pools, with the signing period for international free agents running from January 15 to December 15 annually.

If the official listing were to be postponed until mid-December – the process typically takes weeks to complete – Sasaki could sign when the 2025 international window begins on January 15. While most teams have commitments for players during that period — the top bonus pools are about $7.5 million and the bottom about $5.1 million — they could trade for international bonus space or free up money through non-binding commitments they’ve made to teenagers from Latin American countries, a rare but not unheard of occurrence.

For a player of Sasaki’s talent, teams will likely do whatever they can to convince him to sign.

Sasaki emerged as a national star in Japan five years ago at Koshien, the national high school baseball tournament that is one of the country’s biggest annual sporting events. Over an eight-day period, he threw more than 500 pitches, including a complete game of 12 innings, 21 strikeouts and 194 pitches.

In 2022, at age 20, Sasaki pitched a perfect 19-strikeout game for Lotte and followed it up a week later in his next start with eight more perfect innings before being pulled. Sasaki’s blazing fastball speed that he showed during the 2023 World Baseball Classic – he averaged 100.5 mph in the Japanese semifinal against Mexico – introduced him to an international audience, and although Lotte rejected his request to return after the season 2023 to join the MLB did not answer, the inevitability of his departure only increased.

Sasaki didn’t sign his 2024 contract until January, just before Lotte started spring training. It’s rare for players to wait until then to sign their deals, and the episode provided a precursor for what would come after a 10-5 season in which Sasaki posted a 2.35 ERA, struck out 129, walked 32 gave up and gave up two home runs. 111 innings.

Often, players are posted when Japanese teams believe they have “earned” the privilege, say multiple sources familiar with previous posts. While Sasaki has shown moments of brilliance in his 394⅔ innings pitched — he went 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts against 88 walks in 64 starts over four seasons — he wouldn’t arrive in the MLB with the same kind of resume as his predecessors.

The electrifying success of Japanese players in the MLB is one of the biggest stories of the past decade, with soon-to-be three-time MVP Ohani, Yamamoto, left-hander Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs) and Yusei Kikuchi (free agent). ), and outfielders Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) and Masataka Yoshida (Boston Red Sox) all go through the post system. Right-hander Kodai Senga joined the New York Mets free of charge after 11 seasons with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

MLB teams had been bracing for the possibility that Lotte would retain Sasaki for at least two more years, which would make him 25 and allow the organization to experience the full financial benefit of the post. NPB teams control players’ rights for nine seasons before they reach free agency and can operate outside the postal system. If Lotte had waited until after the 2026 season, it could have received tens of millions of dollars through the posting fee paid by the acquiring team. The Dodgers paid the Orix Blue Wave more than $50 million after signing Yamamoto.

Los Angeles will be heavily linked to Sasaki, but assuming he will go to the Dodgers is premature. While the presence of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles is an advantage, the attention they draw – and the horde of media following them – adds a different element than other teams.

Throughout the 2024 season, MLB presidents of baseball operations and general managers were a fixture at Sasaki’s starts. Sasaki is close to right-hander Yu Darvish, whose team, the San Diego Padres, appears to be a potential landing spot. Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, although he could also choose an organization with pedigree and experience (the Chicago Cubs), a team in an international city (the Toronto Blue Jays), whose previous success with Japanese players still remains still resonates. (Darvish started his career with the Texas Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing out the best in players might be appealing (the Tampa Bay Rays). Plenty of other franchises can – and will – make a strong call on Sasaki once he’s in place.

Unlike traditional free agency, Sasaki has a financial ceiling, making him a steal for all 30 teams. No one doubts Sasaki’s talent, even though the average fastball velocity dropped by two ticks this season, to just over 90 mph. Sasaki showed enough power to boost it to triple figures if desired, and he was quickly able to develop into the hardest-throwing starter in the MLB. His best pitch is still the splitter, whose motion profile makes him unique, even in an MLB where the split has come back into vogue in recent seasons.

Sustainability is the biggest question at Sasaki. His career high in innings pitched is 129⅓, set in 2022. This year he made 18 starts after a torn oblique and right arm soreness forced him to sit out about a quarter of his appearances.

Sasaki’s hiring comes amid a free agent period that is expected to move more quickly than in recent years and adds a layer of intrigue to an offseason that would see Sasaki join free agent outfielder Juan Soto and right-hander Corbin Burnes as the most coveted players. available – at a fraction of the price.