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Chiefs-Bills: 5 things to watch in a crucial AFC showdown
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Chiefs-Bills: 5 things to watch in a crucial AFC showdown

For the eighth time in five seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) will take on the Buffalo Bills (8-2) in a perennially important game. This year’s regular season bout will take place on Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:25 PM Arrowhead time.

It will be the Chiefs’ third attempt to improve on a 9-0 record in franchise history. A win this year would cement the organization’s history, but it would really help it accomplish the unprecedented task of winning a third straight Super Bowl.

A successful Sunday would give the Chiefs a four-game cushion of home field advantage against Buffalo, the Baltimore Ravens, the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Pittsburgh Steelers would be the only team within two games of first place in the conference.

The Bills could narrow that margin to just one game by taking care of business at home. That makes this a pivotal moment in the Chiefs’ season. Here are five things to watch in the battle for AFC candidates:

1. Restrain and disrupt Josh Allen

NFL: AFC Divisional Round-Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn images

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen has been one of the NFL’s cleanest passers this season, whether he had the fifth-lowest interception rate among full-time starters or was sacked at the lowest rate in the same category.

“He does a great job with the ball,” Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said of Allen on Wednesday. ‘He uses everyone, and obviously he doesn’t force anything. I think he’s doing a great job with his decision-making.”

The four interceptions occurred in the last three games, but all four were within the structure of the game. Allen has managed the chaos well this season — he ranks fifth among qualified passers in the EPA per dropback under pressure — because he is good at escaping and extending a disrupted play by throwing or running.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs a penetrating pass rush, and needs the front four to corral Allen without blitz help. Allen registers a 128.4 passer rating against the blitz, with a league-leading 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

“He runs like a fullback,” Spagnuolo described on Thursday. “We know what to expect, we have gone against him quite a bit, we have a lot of respect for him, we have our work to do with him.”

On passing downs, a linebacker will likely keep an eye on Allen for this reason. Former Chief Willie Gay Jr. mainly fulfilled that role in the past.

2. Patrick Mahomes dealing with reliable targets

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs

Denny Medley-Imagn images

Since wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins came into the mix, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has found a better rhythm. He has completed 72% of his passes over the past three weeks, with six touchdowns and just one interception.

Now wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster will return: He was taken off the final injury report, having recovered from a hamstring injury suffered in Week 7.

It gives Mahomes three pass catchers who can share the court, all with veteran experience and the power to beat disciplined zone coverage.

They’re all capable of finding the void left by wide receiver Xavier Worthy demanding safety attention, but that’s easier said than done against the Bills’ defense.

“(The Bills) are doing a great job of being really, really good at their scheme with great players,” Mahomes noted during Wednesday’s press conference. “Then they turn the ball over… to win this game, we’re going to have to play our best football.”

After a Week 10 performance filled with missed opportunities, Mahomes sees the importance of having as many reliable options as possible against a Buffalo defense that has forced the second-most turnovers in the NFL (19).

3. Preservation and completion of assets

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

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The Chiefs are averaging the longest possessions in the NFL (3:23), fueled by a run game that ranks fourth in conversion rate.

These two factors were already important in beating the Bills and keeping the defense fresh to attack Allen, but it has become even more important that those long drives end in touchdowns. Kicker Harrison Butker was placed on Injured Reserve this week. The Chiefs signed Spencer Shrader to replace the New York Jets practice squad.

Running back Kareem Hunt’s efforts to get into scoring position will be relied on — the Bills allow the third-highest average of rushing yards per carry in the NFL — but the red zone and goal-to- go attack must be performed. The Bills are giving up the eighth-lowest touchdown conversion rate inside the 20-yard line.

4. The Bills offense attacks first

NFL: AFC Divisional Round-Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

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The Bills’ offense ranks 15th in third-down conversion percentage, a phase of the game the Chiefs must win by forcing third-and-long. That means you have to create negative play and play solidly early on the down.

This season, only two teams have allowed fewer yards per play on first down (4.7) than the Chiefs. Most of that will come from run defense, which will have to be in its A game against the Bills’ elusive running back James Cook. He ranks sixth among qualified backs in terms of high success rate.

5. Key matchups for Chiefs coverage

AFC Divisional Playoffs - Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

If Allen drops back, James Cook is just as dangerous. Nine of his 20 receptions this season have moved the chains or scored. He will be the priority for the Chiefs’ linebackers and safeties on pass downs, especially since starting tight end Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out due to a knee injury he suffered in last week’s win.

Dawson Knox is a viable replacement and will look to continue exploiting the Chiefs defense, which has allowed the most receiving yards at that position this season.

With rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman already ruled out, all eyes will be on veteran wide receiver Amari Cooper, who is questionable to play. Chiefs’ top cornerback Trent McDuffie will likely match up with Bills’ slot receiver Khalil Shakir most of the time, so Cooper’s presence could be a major mismatch against the Chiefs’ hobbled cornerback group.