Saturday we have more Holy Smokes games, and the College Football Playoff selection committee will have to make a number of judgments.

Ohio State’s loss to Michigan likely won’t knock the Buckeyes out of contention as they have wins against Penn State and Indiana, but it does raise the question of whether the Buckeyes will start the CFP on the road or at home. Furthermore, losing to a team with such a limited offense begs the question of how successful the Buckeyes can be in a tournament where they now need to win four straight against teams that are all better than this year’s Michigan.

Meanwhile, Syracuse stunned Miami and knocked the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game. That put Clemson in the ACC title game facing SMU. If the Tigers – who suffered their third loss on Saturday when they fell to South Carolina – win, they will be in the game. If they lose, they’re out. Miami is thrown into a mess of teams vying for the last spot on the big field.

It’s going to be a real beauty contest for that last spot, and every contestant has their warts.

• Miami is coming off losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
• Alabama has defeated Georgia and South Carolina, but has suffered three losses, including a 24-3 loss to a mediocre Oklahoma team.
• Ole Miss has defeated Georgia and South Carolina, but has lost to Kentucky, LSU and Florida.
• South Carolina may be the hottest team in the country right now, but among its three losses are head-to-head losses against Alabama and Ole Miss.

How will the committee sort these teams? We’ll get our first clue on Tuesday when the rankings are announced, but we’ll do our best to guess here.

Top four seeds

Please note that these four slots are reserved for conference champions only. So don’t panic if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2, the rules don’t allow it. for another team from one of these leagues to No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
The Ducks have hammered Washington, and instead of a rematch with Ohio State, they will now face Penn State for the Big Ten title. If Oregon wins, it will land here. A loss would likely give the Ducks the No. 5 seed.

2. Texas (SEC Champion)
The Longhorns defense dominated at Texas A&M, saving multiple offensive and special teams mistakes. Cut down on the offensive mistakes and Texas can beat Georgia in the SEC title game and end up here. Otherwise, the Longhorns will likely end up with the No. 6 seed.

3. SME (ACC Champion)
The Mustangs went undefeated in conference play in their first season in the ACC, but they still need to win one more to guarantee they make the field. A loss to Clemson in the ACC title game would leave SMU at the mercy of the committee and they would be in the same bucket as Miami with two losses and Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina with three losses. If Clemson were to win the ACC title, the Tigers could be the No. 4 seed, as a 12-1 Mountain West champion Boise State might get the No. 3 seed.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion)
If the Broncos beat UNLV in the Mountain West title game, it seems highly unlikely the Big 12 champion would pass them in the committee’s rankings. Boise State was No. 11 this week, while Big 12 championship contenders Arizona State and Iowa State were Nos. 16 and 18, respectively. If the committee remains consistent — which is never a guarantee given its history — the Broncos should do well if they win.

The great ones

These teams did not win their conference, but are participating in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 will host first-round matches on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 will hit the road.

5. Penn State
The Nittany Lions probably weren’t planning on playing in the Big Ten title game, but they are now in it. They followed the scare in Minnesota with a drubbing of Maryland, and between the way they closed out the game in Minnesota and the way they played through four quarters on Saturday, they arrive in Indianapolis firing on all cylinders.

6. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish won their 10th straight game by pulling away from USC thanks to two pick-sixes in the fourth quarter. They still have the biggest loss (Northern Illinois) of any team in the league, but they are also playing better right now than most of the other teams that will make the field.

7. Georgia
The Bulldogs needed eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech, and while that win doesn’t change Georgia’s appearance in the SEC title game this week, it eliminates a potentially awkward situation. Taking a third loss would have put Georgia in danger of missing the CFP if it lost in Atlanta. Now? Georgia is in the playoffs and will likely host a home game even if it loses to Texas. That’s what this bracket assumes. But if Texas’ offense in Atlanta is as sloppy as it was in the first half against Georgia or the second half Saturday against Texas A&M, the Bulldogs will be the No. 2 seed and Texas will be a big host for a home game. .

8. Ohio State
As embarrassing as the loss to Michigan was, Ohio State has two wins (one on the road) against teams that will make the CFP (Penn State and Indiana). That’s probably good enough for a home game.

9. Tennessee
The Volunteers withdrew from Vanderbilt on Saturday to effectively secure a spot in the field. All that fear from a few weeks ago about Tennessee in the bubble has disappeared, passed on to Miami and to the SEC teams that went down for the third time. The Vol’s are in.

10.Indiana
The Hoosiers crushed rival Purdue to finish an 11-1 regular season. They’re going to make the field. It’s up to Curt Cignetti’s team to prove they belong, most likely on the road in a very large stadium.

11. Alabama
Of the teams vying for this spot, South Carolina is probably the one no one wants to see in the race. But the head-to-head losses against Alabama and Ole Miss seem prohibitive. Perhaps the committee will surprise us, but it seems to like power rankings like ESPN’s FPI, the Sagarin Ratings and the Massey Ratings. (These ratings are similar to the ratings linemakers use to determine spreads, although committee members would likely never make that connection publicly.) In all of these ratings, Alabama is ahead of the other teams in this group. The committee had Alabama one spot ahead of Ole Miss last week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean everything is written in stone. Plus, we have to see how far South Carolina rises and how far Miami falls.

First (power) four out: Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami, Clemson

The No. 12 seed

Under the rules, the four highest-ranked conference champions get the top four seeds. The top five ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids. The rules do not distinguish between power conferences and Group of 5 leagues. This doesn’t have to be a Group of 5 team, and if Boise State keeps winning, it’s very likely the Broncos will be ranked higher than the Big 12 champion.

12. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)
The Sun Devils hammered Arizona on Saturday to clinch their spot in the title game. Iowa State had to beat Kansas State and then wait for BYU to beat Houston, but the Cyclones showed up

The projected bracket

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
The winner will face No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
The winner will face No. 4 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
The winner will face No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
The winner will face No. 3 SMU in the Peach Bowl

Remaining bubble teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subgroups: potential bigwigs and potential conference winners. It should go without saying that a potential leader is also a potential conference champion. In the Big Ten and the SEC, both teams that make the conference title game are likely to make the CFP. That’s not a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and one or two teams making these games may only have a shot that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential large groups

ACC: Miami
Big Ten: No
Big 12: No
SEC: Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina

Potential winners of the conference:

ACC: Clemson
Big Ten: No
Big 12: Iowa State
SEC: No

Group of five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 competition have a chance to become the highest-ranked Group of 5 champions.

American Athletics Conference: Army
US Conference: No
MAC value: No
Mountain West: UNLV
Sunbelt: No