In a season where unpredictability has become the norm, Week 7 of the 2024 college football season offers a tantalizing quartet of underdog prospects. As the leaves turn and the conference races heat up, four matchups stand out as potential upset specials.

These games feature underdogs with a bite to match their bark, all ready to defy the odds and further cloud the college football landscape. From Sun Belt showdowns to a Big Ten battle, these battles offer a compelling story of resilience, tactical acumen, and the ever-present potential for David to topple Goliath. As we dig deeper into the analysis, it becomes clear that in college football, the “underdog” label is often just that: a label waiting to be torn off by teams hungry to prove their chops on the national stage.

General: 16-13-2
Best bets: 4-2

All rules current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.

Old Dominion Monarchs (ML Even) at Georgia State Panthers

Old Dominion has faced a slew of opponents throughout the first half of the season. With the 36th toughest schedule in the country, the Monarchs have faced several tough matchups, including a strong South Carolina Gamecocks defense and a 4-1 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers team. Despite the tough schedule and 1-4 record, three of Old Dominion’s losses were by eight points or fewer.

It should be a no-brainer to see Georgia State as a 1.5-point underdog. The Panthers’ defense ranks 113th in defensive success rate and 103rd in EPA per rush. These weaknesses align well with Old Dominion’s offensive strengths, especially the run game with Aaron Young and Bryce Duke. The Panthers’ poor defense could lead to difficulty getting off the field on third downs, an area where they already struggle (116th in third down conversions allowed).

Georgia State will be the least challenging defense Old Dominion has faced this season. While the stats may not seem impressive for the Monarchs, their strong schedule has prepared them well for this matchup. I back the underdog to win outright on the moneyline.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +10 at James Madison Dukes

In a Sun Belt showdown between two 4-1 teams, I’m backing the Chanticleers as 10-point underdogs despite their unfavorable history in this game. Coastal Carolina has been outscored 103-21 by James Madison the past two years, which likely explains the wide spread between these competitive teams.

This pick is as much a blur for James Madison as it is for Coastal. The Dukes suffer a loss to UL Monroe. Despite outgaining ULM 399-257 in all-out offense, the Dukes reached the end zone just twice and struggled on fourth downs, converting just 1 of 5 attempts. More concerning are James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett III’s performance under pressure; he went 0-for-9 when pressured, compared to 20-for-38 with a clean pocket. Barnett is now 3-for-19 and is spending the season under pressure. Notably, Monroe’s pass rush ranks 109th in the nation according to PFF. The Chanticleers are facing more pressures, sacks and quarterback hits than ULM this season, suggesting they could exploit this weakness.

Offensively, Coastal Carolina has shown the ability to score points. The Chanticleers have averaged 38 points this season with a balanced attack: 241 passing yards and 197 rushing yards per game. Coastal Carolina could challenge James Madison’s defense as the Chanticleers have been very efficient in the red zone and rank 27th in touchdowns scored. This efficiency could help them maximize scoring opportunities in Week 7 and keep pace with James Madison.

While the Dukes are favored, the Chanticleers have the potential to keep the game within the 10-point spread, especially if they can leverage their offensive strengths and apply quarterback pressure.

Colorado Buffaloes +4.5 vs. 18. Kansas State Wildcats

Colorado +5.5 was my first bet of the week, but now that the line is at +4.5, it is no longer my favorite play. Nevertheless, Colorado’s offensive firepower in Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy candidate Travis Hunter, along with the team’s defensive playmaking ability, remain compelling factors.

An under-the-radar force that could propel Colorado past Kansas State is third-down efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Buffaloes converted 44.62% of their third downs on offense and held their opponents to just 34.67%. The Wildcats, on the other hand, convert 38.7% and allow a conversion rate of 35.7%.

This disparity in efficiency, often overlooked in key metrics, could be critical to Colorado’s ability to dictate the pace of the game and potentially upset Kansas State. It showcases both attacking execution and defensive prowess in critical situations, and could potentially prove to be the deciding factor in what promises to be a closely contested encounter.

Best Bet of Week 7: Washington Huskies (+3, +120 ML) at Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa is 4-1 this season, partly due to an improved offense, but also because of a slumped defense. In 2023, Iowa’s defense was elite, ranking first with the fewest yards allowed per play at 3.9. Midway through 2024, Iowa has fallen to 59th, giving up 5.5 yards per play and struggling to prevent explosive plays.

In just four FBS games, Iowa has already given up more plays of 50+ yards (four) than in all 14 games of the 2023 season (two), three of which came against non-conference opponents Iowa State and Troy. That surpasses the total of Iowa’s combined non-conference rosters for 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Iowa safety Quinn Schulte attributed these big plays to “poor communication on the back end and poor technique and fundamentals.” But it’s clear the loss of All-American defenseman Cooper DeJean, a 2024 second-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles, has also affected his performance.

Washington will look to capitalize on Iowa’s defensive regression as the Huskies rank fifth in the FBS with 111 plays of 10 yards or longer through six games, according to ESPN Research. Washington also has 32 plays of 20 yards or longer, which ranks 17th in the FBS. Their offense has remained potent despite the 2023 season overhaul.

Fifth-year quarterback Will Rogers leads Washington’s offense with his accuracy on short-to-intermediate passes (71.65%) and a quick release. Under Jedd Fisch’s system, Rogers has thrown for 1,625 yards and 12 touchdowns. Wide receiver Denzel Boston leads the Big Ten and is second in FBS with eight touchdown receptions.

The Huskies also have an explosive running game led by Jonah Coleman. At 6-foot-4 and 229 pounds, Coleman is tough to tackle. He leads FBS with 24 rushes of more than 10 yards, four more than early Heisman Trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty.

Although Iowa is known for its strong defense and home field advantage, the Huskies’ balanced and explosive offense gives them a chance to beat the Hawkeyes. I recommend taking both the points and money lines as this seems to be a scenario where the wrong team is favored.