Last week, college football reminded us that we don’t need a huge slate of heavyweight matchups to have an awfully good time. The main characters ended up being Vanderbilt, Cal and Arkansas, and it might have been the most entertaining and impactful week of the season to date.

This week, we have a huge slate of heavyweight matchups. That’s good too. We’ve got No. 2 vs. No. 3 in Eugene and a major opportunity for Oregon to begin proving its top-five potential. We’ve got the first SEC edition of the Red River Rivalry. We’ve got No. 9 at No. 13 in Baton Rouge, with two teams looking to charge back into the SEC race (or at least not disappear from it entirely). We’ve got a foursome of games that could either bring clarity to or completely blow up the Big 12 race. We’ve got a few more unranked-versus-top-10 games that we hope will bring another round of chaos. And at night, we get Idaho-Montana State! That rules too!

We are somehow charging toward the midway point of the season. I don’t know how that’s possible, but here’s everything you need to follow during a massive Week 7. (All times are Eastern, and all lines are from ESPN BET.)

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Ohio State-Oregon | Texas-Oklahoma
Ole Miss-LSU
Big 12 showdowns | Upset alerts
Chaos superfecta | Week 7 playlist

The big one in Eugene

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon (7:30 p.m., NBC)

We’ve seen Washington at Rutgers and Michigan State at Oregon on Friday nights. We’ve seen Indiana at UCLA, Wisconsin at USC and USC at Minnesota. Some of these have actually been good games, but when the Big Ten officially brought in four of the Pac-12’s finest football programs this season, it was clear what the biggest new game on the marquee would be in 2024. And on Saturday evening, we get to see it.

Ohio State visits Oregon looking for a test. The Buckeyes have won five games by an average of 46-7, and while they’ve played only one team better than 75th in SP+, they beat that team (No. 29 Iowa) by 28 points last week. Their statistical résumé is nearly flawless: They’re fifth in points per drive and first in points allowed, they rank highly in nearly every category that matters, and even in the one where they don’t — the defense has allowed touchdowns on 60% of red zone trips, 72nd nationally — it’s a sample size issue (they’ve faced only five red zone trips, fewest in the country). Everything has worked as intended. Running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are averaging 7.9 yards per carry, receiver Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are averaging 12.8 yards per target, and the defense is first in defensive SP+.

Oregon began the season right next to the Buckeyes in the rankings and has only sort of looked the part. The Ducks are in the top 10 in both offense success rate* (ninth) and success rate allowed (seventh). They’re mostly fantastic against the pass, their offense is efficient via both the run (11th in rushing success rate) and pass (first in completion rate).

(* Success rate: how frequently you’re gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)

Now would be a great time to remember how to steal easy yards, however. Last year’s offense was masterful at it.

With a steady diet of quick sideline passes, Oregon was ruthlessly efficient last year. On passes at or behind the line, the Ducks engineered a 53% success rate and gained positive yardage 79% of the time. They stole free, easy yards all day, and it set up lovely opportunities downfield.

This year those numbers are more mortal: 47% success rate and 71% positive yardage on passes at or behind the line. The free yards aren’t as available, especially for star Tez Johnson, who had a 52-yard touchdown catch against UCLA but has otherwise averaged just 8.2 yards per catch.

It’s time for Oregon’s stars to shine. Running back Jordan James finally broke off a 41-yard run last week, but Noah Whittington is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Traeshon Holden and tight end Terrance Ferguson are each averaging more than 14 yards per catch, but Johnson has been a mere possession guy, and Evan Stewart is at 11.4 per catch. To keep quarterback Dillon Gabriel from getting swarmed in the pocket by Jack Sawyer and a great Buckeyes front, these guys need to win some major battles.

The Ducks should test the hell out of Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, at least. End Jordan Burch and tackle Derrick Harmon have combined for 27 pressures and eight sacks in five games, and Washington transfer Jabbar Muhammad has been a great No. 1 corner, allowing 6-for-18 passing with seven breakups and only one completion of 20-plus yards. He hasn’t faced Smith and Egbuka yet, obviously, but Oregon has the athletes to compete on defense. Howard has done well in replacing Kyle McCord, but these are the games that matter for Ohio State. Is he ready to look the part in a big game? Is Oregon?

Current line: Buckeyes -3 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 2.9 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 5.2

Red River, SEC edition

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

For the first time since 2008 — Texas’ classic 45-35 comeback win over top-ranked Oklahoma — the Red River Rivalry involves a No. 1 team. Since 1956, we’ve seen No. 1 in this game 10 times; in seven of those instances, the favorite rolled by an average of 29 points, but on three other occasions (1963, 2008 and a controversial 1984 tie), the underdog ruined some plans. Red River ends up being either a statement by or an indictment of No. 1.

Steve Sarkisian’s top-ranked Longhorns haven’t given us much reason for doubt. Their résumé is nearly identical to Ohio State’s: They’ve faced only one opponent better than 73rd in SP+, but they’ve won games by an average of 45-7. And they’ve done it despite being without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for basically half the season. They’ve split between Ewers and backup Arch Manning, but they’re still eighth in points per drive and seventh in success rate. The passing game runs through four main receivers — wideouts Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and Ryan Wingo and tight end Gunnar Helm — who have combined to catch 65 of 82 passes (79%) for 1,054 yards and nine TDs. The run game doesn’t really go anywhere, but it keeps the Horns on schedule, and when they fall behind the sticks, it’s fine: They’re first in passing downs success rate.

Ewers is expected to return to the lineup, which, considering his excellent track record against Oklahoma, is a good thing. But he’ll be facing a much different Sooners defense. OU is eighth in points allowed per drive — the Sooners are giving up almost no explosive plays, they’re dominating against the run, and they’re lighting up quarterbacks (fourth in sack rate) and forcing loads of turnovers (13, fourth nationally). Defensive end R Mason Thomas was brilliant late in the win over Auburn, and safety Robert Spears-Jennings is excellent against both run and pass.

An OU upset bid is going to have to go through the defense. The offense still isn’t offering much.

Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. started his first game against Auburn two weeks ago, replacing Jackson Arnold, and the Sooners produced just a 27.7% success rate (which would rank last nationally for the entire season) and gained at least 10 yards on just 14.9% of snaps (which would rank 126th). One of those big gains was an early, 48-yard Hawkins touchdown run; another was a 60-yard bomb to J.J. Hester, which set up a late TD. This all kept the Sooners close enough that Kip Lewis’ 63-yard pick-six delivered a comeback win, but it wasn’t exactly a sustainable recipe for success. The offensive line has been the defining issue for Oklahoma, but basically every primary receiver is banged up, including Deion Burks, the only guy who has topped even 200 receiving yards.

Funky things can happen in a rivalry game — hey, funky things happened the last time we saw OU — but the Sooners’ defense is going to have to force an enormous number of mistakes. The offense just doesn’t have that many good plays in it.

Current line: Horns -14.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 14.5 | FPI projection: Horns by 15.8

Ole Miss vs. Death Valley

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

In 1999, David Cutcliffe’s first Ole Miss team overcame three first-half turnovers and an early deficit to pummel Gerry DiNardo’s last LSU team 42-23 behind a combined 175 rushing yards from Deuce McAllister and Joe Gunn. True freshman Eli Manning was redshirting on the sideline.

That’s the only time since at least 1978 that Ole Miss won as a favorite in Baton Rouge. Granted, it has had only four opportunities in that span — the others: 1993, 2014 and 2020 — but more often than not, when they’ve had the chance to win at Death Valley, they’ve failed to take advantage.

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are on a bit of a redemption tour after their surprising loss to Kentucky two weeks ago. LSU, meanwhile, was off last week after its most complete performance of the season, a 42-10 destruction of a previously smoking-hot South Alabama.

The Kentucky game was a test of Ole Miss’ offense (one that it didn’t exactly pass), but this one should test the defense more. LSU’s defense has improved of late, overachieving against SP+ projections for two straight games and moving into the top 10 in havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defended and forced fumbles per play). But the Tigers are still 124th in passing success rate allowed, while Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss offense rank second in the same category. Leading receiver Tre Harris, who torched LSU last year, is listed as questionable, though.

Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is completing 70% of his passes while taking almost no contact whatsoever. He has got his possession guys (tight end Mason Taylor, receiver Zavion Thomas, freshman running back Caden Durham) and his big-play guys (receivers Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson), plus an in-between guy (CJ Daniels). He doesn’t have much of a run game, though. LSU ranks 64th in yards per carry, not including sacks, and no one has seized control of the No. 1 RB job. Or at least, they hadn’t until Durham rushed for 128 yards in seven carries against USA. He has easily provided the most upside at the position.

Ole Miss has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game and ranks first in success rate allowed and third in points allowed per drive. The Rebels rank highly in both sack rate (seventh) and stuff rate (sixth), tackle Walter Nolen is on pace for double-digit TFLs, pass rushers Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen (if healthy) are brilliant, and Trey Amos is the most active corner LSU has faced. But this is the biggest test the Rebels defense has faced.

Current line: Rebels -3.5 (up from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 6.2 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.7

The Big 12’s big (and potentially VERY messy) week

The Big 12’s five preseason favorites in the conference media poll (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona) have started a combined 3-9 in league play. Five other teams (Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa State, Colorado and West Virginia), three of whom suffered disappointing nonconference losses, are a combined 11-0. SP+ currently projects two teams from that former batch (Utah and K-State) and three from the latter (ISU, BYU and WVU) as the five most likely champions.

In other words, the Big 12 race could end up every bit as messy as we had hoped. And among the 10 teams listed above, eight are pairing off this weekend. We might end up with a new set of likely favorites, and we might end up with even less clarity than before. I’m hoping for the latter.

No. 16 Utah at Arizona State (Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)

Utah is once again spending every moment making us wonder if or when injured QB Cam Rising will return. He might this week! Or not! Regardless, the Utes will face RB Cam Skattebo and a physical Arizona State team that has already won three tight games but somehow stinks in the red zone on both offense (102nd in red zone TD rate) and defense (116th). Utah will be by far the best defense the Sun Devils have faced, but the Utes’ offense just isn’t the same without Rising.

Current line: Utah -4 | SP+ projection: Utah by 6.5 | FPI projection: Utah by 0.5

Arizona at No. 14 BYU (4 p.m., Fox)

One-time WAC rivals, these teams have played only six times since 1977, but they might have the most pivotal game in a pivotal week. BYU has already won three road games and beaten two SP+ top-25 teams (SMU and Kansas State) thanks to a resurgent defense and timely contributions from quarterback Jake Retzlaff. QB Noah Fifita and Arizona, meanwhile, have underachieved in every game … except in an excellent road win over Utah that kept their Big 12 title dreams alive.

Current line: BYU -4 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.4 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.8

No. 11 Iowa State at West Virginia (8 p.m., Fox)

Entering 2021 with top-10 ambitions, Matt Campbell’s ISU team instead fell into a nearly three-year funk, but the Cyclones could reenter the top 10 if they survive Morgantown unbeaten. West Virginia began the season with discouraging losses to old rivals Penn State and Pitt but outlasted Kansas, then blew out Oklahoma State last week. The Mountaineers have rediscovered their physical identity behind backs CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jahiem White, and QB Garrett Greene is making big plays again.

Current line: ISU -3 | SP+ projection: ISU by 3.0 | FPI projection: ISU by 1.7

No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Following maybe their most complete win of the Deion Sanders era, a 48-21 dismantling of UCF, Travis Hunter and the Buffaloes got a week off to rest up for the biggest game of the year. Kansas State hasn’t been great on the road, but sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson is nearly on pace for a 2,500/1,000 season (passing yards/rushing yards), and an all-or-nothing defense should be able to harass Shedeur Sanders. We’ll just have to see how many “alls” the Wildcats allow.

Current line: K-State -4.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: K-State by 8.7 | FPI projection: K-State by 0.8

This week’s big upset?

So many of us remain so utterly enamored with the 2007 season and its abject chaos that we immediately compare anything messy in a given season to the gold standard. And after last weekend, we’ve now seen unranked teams beat top-10 opponents eight times this season, only one off the pace set by 2007 after six weeks.

The 2007 season, however, was a chaos marathon, not a chaos sprint. In Week 7 that year, we saw No. 17 Kentucky beat No. 1 LSU while unranked Oregon State took down No. 2 Cal. So to keep pace, we need another big dog to go down. (We might also need No. 18 to win in Dallas.)

We’ll relegate Mississippi State-Georgia to Week 7 Playlist status because of the nearly five-touchdown spread, but four other unranked-versus-top-10 matchups are at least slightly intriguing.

No. 4 Penn State at USC (3:30 p.m., CBS)

We start with an A-grade helmet game — and, per the odds, by far the most likely upset of the bunch. USC has already beaten one top-15 team this season (LSU) but is unranked because of losses to physical, plodding Michigan and Minnesota teams. To date, Penn State has basically been a better Minnesota, leaning on excellent efficiency and big-play prevention but not always making its life easy with big plays and easy points. This one could come down to which high-efficiency passing game produces more chunk plays. For all of USC’s dynamic athletes, the Trojans don’t make many of those either, and they’re actually down to 52nd in overall points per drive. But PSU will still needs to play well here.

Current line: PSU -4.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: PSU by 8.7 | FPI projection: USC by 0.7

Florida at No. 8 Tennessee (7 p.m., ESPN)

Last week I declared that Arkansas was athletic and volatile enough to beat someone really good, and the Razorbacks immediately upset Tennessee. Florida has some of the same volatile qualities — explosive passing game (especially with receiver Eugene Wilson III returning from injury), excellent pass rush on passing downs — but the Gators are both dreadfully inefficient on defense and prone to crippling breakdowns when their pass rush doesn’t get home. Plus, this game’s in Knoxville. This is an occasionally weird series, but the Vols likely will bounce back, even with a banged-up receiving corps.

Current line: Vols -15.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 11.2 | FPI projection: Vols by 17.2

No. 10 Clemson at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN)

The last time Wake beat Clemson, it was a 12-7 win for Jim Grobe’s Demon Deacons over Tommy Bowden’s Tigers in 2008. (So close to 2007!) The Deacs are starting to find traction offensively, but they seem completely incapable of knocking opposing offenses off schedule. If you give up 71 combined points to Louisiana and NC State, you probably aren’t beating Clemson.

Current line: Clemson -20 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 15.0 | FPI projection: Clemson by 17.5

South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama (noon, ABC/ESPN+)

Safe to say, with the epic backlash his team faced following last week’s loss to Vandy, Kalen DeBoer now officially knows what it’s like to be Alabama’s head coach.

The call everyone was waiting for… Legend has spoken https://t.co/3yBfrHCfBZ pic.twitter.com/mucC4qm8Mh

— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) October 7, 2024

The Tide will almost certainly respond well enough to cruise in this one, but South Carolina’s pass rush can tee off if you’re not sharp enough to avoid obvious pass situations. This will test Bama’s focus, at least.

Current line: Bama -21 | SP+ projection: Bama by 19.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 20.9

Week 7 chaos superfecta

We’re back, baby! Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. After whiffing for the first time in Week 5, we charged back to score a big one in Arkansas over Tennessee in Week 6. (Vandy over Alabama was too big for me to even consider.) That makes us 5-for-6 on the season.

If you read the last section of this preview, I think you know which four games I’m going to choose this week. SP+ says that there’s only a 40% chance that Alabama (89% over South Carolina), Clemson (83% over Wake Forest), Tennessee (76% over Florida) and Penn State (71% over USC) all win. One of these games will be our 2007 Oregon State-Cal.

Week 7 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Northwestern at Maryland (8 p.m., Fox). Indiana’s last two victims — Maryland lost in Bloomington in Week 5, Northwestern at home in Week 6 — meet to determine which team still has bowl hopes and which probably doesn’t. The Terrapins are favored because of an efficient passing game and turnover-hungry defense (and more general upside), but they’re also 1-3 against the Wildcats since joining the Big Ten.

Current line: Maryland -10.5 | SP+ projection: Maryland by 12.1 | FPI projection: Maryland by 17.1

Early Saturday

Washington at Iowa (noon, Fox). I really thought we’d be more body-clock observant in our Big Ten kickoff times, but nope! UCLA kicked off at 9 a.m. PT last week, and Washington is doing it this week. This game has one of the oddest matchups you’ll see: Washington’s otherwise efficient offense ranks 107th in red zone TD rate, and Iowa’s otherwise awesome defense ranks 134th in red zone TD rate allowed. If the Huskies score TDs when they get the chance, an upset is quite feasible.

Current line: Iowa -3 | SP+ projection: Washington by 0.4 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.9

Wisconsin at Rutgers (noon, BTN). After a frustrating 2-2 start, Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin took massive frustration out on miserable Purdue last week in a 52-6 win. Rutgers, meanwhile, is looking for a rebound after letting a possible upset at Nebraska slip through its fingers last week. With a win, Rutgers could keep hope alive for a 9-3 or so season while doing massive damage to the Badgers’ bowl hopes.

Current line: Rutgers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 1.8 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 4.0

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (noon, The CW). North Carolina needs to get out of town. The Tar Heels have slightly overachieved against SP+ projections in two road games but are underachieving by 13.1 points per game at home. SP+ still seems to have faith; I don’t think I do. Georgia Tech is tough and physical and reasonably likely to hand UNC a fourth straight loss.

Current line: Jackets -5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 1.4 | FPI projection: Jackets by 2.4

No. 21 Missouri at UMass (noon, ESPN2). The weirdest game of the week by far. After no-showing at Texas A&M last week, Eliah Drinkwitz’s Tigers look for redemption in the foliage of Amherst, of all places. UMass is aggressive and dangerous against the pass — this is a Don Brown team, after all — but doesn’t appear to have much else to offer.

Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 30.9 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 26.8

Saturday afternoon

Cal at No. 22 Pitt (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Cal came achingly close to a season-altering upset in its first ACC home game; now the Golden Bears, 1-2 in one-score finishes, visit Heinz Field (OK, Acrisure Stadium) to face quarterback Eli Holstein and 2024’s fourth-quarter masters. Unbeaten Pitt’s scoring margin this year is plus-102 overall: plus-39 in the first three quarters and plus-63 in the fourth.

Current line: Pitt -3 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 6.4 | FPI projection: Pitt by 7.1

Memphis at USF (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This one was moved from Friday night due to Hurricane Milton. Memphis’ season briefly began to crumble in recent weeks — the Tigers lost to Navy and underachieved drastically against Middle Tennessee State, and went from being maybe the Group of 5’s CFP autobid front-runners to the No. 4 favorite to win the AAC. Can they charge back up the contenders list after a much-needed bye week? Can USF rebound after losing to Miami and Tulane by a combined 70 points? (And is QB Byrum Brown healthy enough to go?)

Current line: Memphis -7 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 10.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 4.7

Louisville at Virginia (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Quietly, Virginia has begun the season 4-1; after back-to-back three-win seasons, the Cavaliers now have a 71% chance of bowling, per SP+. Of course, they haven’t yet faced an SP+ top-40 team, and now they’ll play six in their last seven games. Louisville’s hopes of an ACC title and/or CFP bid took a nearly fatal blow with last week’s loss to SMU, but the Cardinals should still have too many weapons in this one.

Current line: Louisville -7.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 6.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 10.7

Stanford at No. 11 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Before embarking on a pair of tricky road trips — to Georgia Tech in Week 8, then to East Rutherford, New Jersey, to face unbeaten Navy — Notre Dame likely gets to ease out of its bye week with an easy home game against Stanford. The Cardinal were perky and interesting a few weeks ago, but the bottom is quickly dropping out for an offense that was already struggling with QB Ashton Daniels and collapsed without him last week.

Current line: Irish -23 | SP+ projection: Irish by 25.9 | FPI projection: Irish by 28.6

Mississippi State at No. 5 Georgia (4:15 p.m., SECN). Hey, if Vanderbilt can beat Alabama for the first time in 40 years, why couldn’t Mississippi State beat UGA for the first time in 14? Well, mainly because MSU has been much worse than Vandy this year. The Bulldogs occasionally produce big pass plays, but the defense ranks 134th in success rate allowed and 123rd in points allowed per drive. This would be, by a few orders of magnitude, a bigger upset than Vandy’s.

Current line: Georgia -33.5 | SP+ projection: Georgia by 30.1 | FPI projection: Georgia by 26.9

Purdue at No. 23 Illinois (3:30 p.m., FS1). There’s officially a morbid curiosity to watching Purdue at this point. The Boilermakers are the lowest-ranked power-conference team, per SP+, and they now have a 29% chance of finishing 1-11. Illinois, meanwhile, has a 42% chance of going 9-3 or better. It would take a massive sleepwalking job for the Illini not to cruise in this one.

Current line: Illini -22.5 (up from -19.5) | SP+ projection: Illini by 15.6 | FPI projection: Illini by 21.9

Saturday evening

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (7:45 p.m., SECN). The purveyor of the biggest upset of Week 5 (UK over Ole Miss) against the purveyor of the biggest upset of the season (Vandy over Bama). This one has become far more interesting than a matchup of unranked 3-2 teams would normally be. Can Diego Pavia and an efficient Vandy offense move the ball on a stout UK defense? Will Kentucky, scorer of 38 total points against three SEC foes, ever be able to create chunk plays and easy points?

Current line: Kentucky -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kentucky by 14.3 | FPI projection: Kentucky by 7.0

Washington State at Fresno State (7 p.m., FS1). These future Pac-12 rivals are at pivot points following bye weeks. Wazzu is coming off its first loss, at Boise State, but still has a 58% chance of going 10-2 or better, per SP+. Fresno State, meanwhile, got crushed in a chastening, 45-point loss to UNLV but still boasts standout talent in the passing game and pass defense. Who gets the second half of their season (more or less) off on the right foot?

Current line: Wazzu -3.5 | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 6.2 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 4.4

Minnesota at UCLA (9 p.m., BTN). These teams are a combined 4-7, but Minnesota is trending well after a near-upset of Michigan and a thrilling late win over USC last week. UCLA is coming off probably its best performance of the season; that’s a low bar, but the Bruins showed ball-control potential and decent defensive line play against Penn State. These teams play at ridiculously slow tempos, so expect about a 2.5-hour game with eight possessions each. (That’s only a slight exaggeration.)

Current line: Minnesota -5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.1 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 3.8

Late Saturday

No. 17 Boise State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., CBSSN). Hawai’i could present an interesting test for BSU. The Rainbow Warriors rank fifth in success rate allowed and rarely give up huge gashes, but they also haven’t seen Boise’s Ashton Jeanty, aka the human big play, yet. Can Jeanty, with his 10.9 yards per carry, keep burnishing his Heisman cred and remain on pace for 2,500-plus yards? And can the Broncos keep up their potential CFP pace?

Current line: BSU -21 | SP+ projection: BSU by 16.2 | FPI projection: BSU by 18.3

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. It’s a huge week at the Division III level, with three ranked-versus-ranked matchups and, on paper, absolute toss-up games. I’m including two here — the third is No. 10 Carnegie Mellon at No. 7 Grove City — along with a late-night main event.

D3: No. 5 Wisconsin-River Falls at No. 11 Wisconsin-Platteville (2 p.m., local streaming). We start by going back to Wisconsin, where in one of last week’s showcase games, Wisconsin-Platteville overcame a 15-point deficit and beat No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse in overtime. Now the surprisingly awesome Pioneers welcome unbeaten UWRF for homecoming in Platteville. The WIAC has five ranked teams and might be setting up for the single wildest conference race in college football. SP+ projection: UWP by 0.4

D3: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons at No. 17 Mary Hardin-Baylor (2 p.m., local streaming). UMHB, the national champ in 2016 (later vacated), 2018 and 2021, suffered through a 6-6 stretch from late 2022 through the first game of this season. But the Crusaders have since won three in a row, taking down Wisconsin-Whitewater on the road in the process. Now comes Hardin-Simmons, winner of 28 of its past 32 games, for homecoming in Belton. SP+ projection: Hardin-Simmons by 0.9

FCS: No. 3 Montana State at No. 8 Idaho (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Another week, another huge Idaho game. The Vandals have played two FBS opponents and four ranked FCS foes, and they’re a solid 4-2 despite injuries to two quarterbacks. But now comes the biggest test since their season opener against Oregon. Montana State is 6-0 and has beaten five overmatched FCS foes by an average of 43-16. The Bobcats’ run game is ridiculous, and we should see another crowd of 20,000-plus for this ESPN2 showcase game. You won’t regret tuning in. SP+ projection: MSU by 14.3.