The Chicago Cubs are five games away from the NL wild card with a few weeks to go. But the Los Angeles Dodgers await tonight.

My Cubs vs. Dodgers predictions are not comfortable backing either side, given how poorly both starters have performed. So, tonight’s MLB picks will revolve around the first half total.

Cubs vs Dodgers Prediction

My best chance
First Five Innings Over 5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

The Chicago Cubs offense has shown a lot of promise of late, ranking sixth in wRC+ over the past 14 days, thanks to the increase in good contact we saw from this team earlier this year.

In that span, Chicago has hit .268 and continues to hit at a high pace, as it has for a month now. It has struggled to limit strikeouts and has just a .140 Isolated Power, but Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler should help the Cubs given the terrible run he has had.

Buehler may have escaped his last start against the bottom-ranked Los Angeles Angels with just two earned runs, but both came on solo homers. He also walked twice, bringing his total to 10 in 17 innings in four starts since returning from injury. He now has an incredibly poor expected batting average of .280 and an expected slugging percentage of .458 in those outings. For reference, his respective league averages are .245 and .406.

With a patient approach and an eye for contact, the Cubs should have a productive night at the plate against Buehler. Unfortunately, that may not be enough support for Kyle Hendricks.

The Dodgers enter this game fourth in OPS vs. ground-ball pitchers, though they lag further behind in batting average (ninth). Hendricks has a meager .291 xBA and .454 xSLG for the season, numbers that have only gotten worse since early August, sitting at .308 and .471, respectively.

LA is now back to full health and has stabilized over the past two weeks, hitting .274 and .184 ISO. While the Dodgers aren’t hitting as often as they’ve come to expect, that should help them against a pitcher they want to swing at.

The Dodgers bullpen remains incredibly strong, and Chicago’s stable has posted a surprising 3.08 ERA in the second half. I don’t want to be part of the late-inning suffering that results from this, and will opt for the top half of this one.

Shohei Ohtani Choice: Hit Parade

My best chance
Shohei Ohtani More than 1.5 hits (+160 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Hendricks’ lone start against the Dodgers this season didn’t go according to plan, as he gave up five runs on eight hits and two walks. With just two batters in, Shohei Ohtani greeted him with a double deep into the gap. He would add a two-run homer from Hendricks later in the game, and with that I think we can safely bet on the MVP favorite to go here again.

Ohtani has the second-most home runs against ground-ball pitchers this season and is just two total bases shy of the league lead in that category. With a .307 batting average and .632 slugging percentage in the split, I think we can be aggressive here and leapfrog his total bases, which are pumped up to -150 or higher.

The Japanese slugger now has two multi-hit efforts in his last three games and nine in his last 17. While I’m intrigued by his ability to go deep or even just hit a double, I think the best value here lies in multiple hits in a high-scoring game that should give him five plate appearances.

Cubs vs Dodgers parlay for the same game (SGP)

F5 More than 5.5

Shohei Ohtani 2+ hits

Dansby Swanson 1+ hits

Hendricks won’t be the only pitcher struggling. We’re being rewarded for having a batter on both sides, trying to increase the chances.

Dansby Swanson, who has a .333/.407/.667 slash line in his last 13 games, will be my guy. It’s been a long time coming, as he maintains an xBA around .250 in a rather unfortunate season.

Swanson remains one of the Cubs’ best heater mashers, hitting .266 against all fastballs with a .283 xBA, and he’ll be happy against Buehler, who threw some version of the fastball 66.5 percent of the time this season. And it’s been very hittable.

Whether it’s the four-seamer, cutter or sinker, Swanson should be able to defend him well. He’s 5-for-17 (.294) against Buehler in his career with a .338 xBA, and many of those encounters have come when Buehler was worlds better. Bet on Swanson to stay hot in unison with the other bets we’ve discussed.

Learn how to bet on a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Dodgers Odds

Cubs vs Dodgers live odds

Cubs vs Dodgers opening odds

• Moneyline: Chicago +160 | Los Angeles -190
• Running line: Chicago +1.5 (-125) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: More than 9 (-120) | Less than 9 (+100)

Cubs vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Dodgers opened around -190 on the moneyline and there has been little movement as they are still the heavy favorite.
• LA has won 86% of moneyline bets and 84% of cashes at DraftKings.
• The total has risen over the past 24 hours, briefly dropping to nine runs after the index opened at 9.5, and jumping to 10 on Monday afternoon.
• Although only 55% of tickets are in the Over position, it accounts for 85% of sales.

Trend Cubs vs Dodgers

Trend to Know: The Chicago Cubs have reached the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI). Discover more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers.

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