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Dems doing well, Lake founders, voting smoothly

Vaseline November 6, 2024

Election Day is over and the presidential race appears settled, while much of the rest, at least in Arizona, is not.

The final results in the state’s key contests may not be clear for several days, but there are several trends worth watching to see if they will define Arizona heading into the next election cycle.

Here’s what stands out as of late Tuesday:

Democrats may do better than expected in Arizona

Donald Trump, the former president and perhaps the president-elect, narrowly led in Arizona by a margin that could be enchanting if the races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin didn’t already seem settled.

It’s especially notable because Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats across the country generally fared poorly.

But Arizona currently has a big asterisk.

The state has at least three broad types of voting: early voting, Election Day voting and “late early voting.” The late early ballots are late mail-in ballots that still require signature verification, a process that can take days.

Many expected Republicans to do well from the start on Tuesday, with a stronger closing kick for Democrats. That happened, for example, in 2018.

But as of Tuesday night, Arizona Democrats were doing well in the U.S. Senate race, at least one congressional race, in both chambers of the Legislature and in the Maricopa County election.

The question is whether the final votes will be much redder, as in 2020 and 2022.

Kari Lake struggled to compete

Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., was comfortably ahead in his Senate race against Republican Kari Lake, although his lead narrowed overnight.

If he persists, Gallego would target Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz. succeed, and Lake would lose for the second time in a row statewide in a race that many Republicans considered winnable.

Lake cast himself as “Trump in heels,” and he did well in Arizona, at least in the early unofficial results. But Lake ran far behind him in a way that didn’t happen in his two previous runs.

In 2016, U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., received 107,000 more votes than Trump in Arizona. That was 9% more than Trump. That was largely due to McCain’s performances in Maricopa and Pima counties, the state’s population centers.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points, which was remarkably low for a state where Republicans usually won by 10 points or more.

In 2020, U.S. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., stayed close to Trump’s vote total even though they both lost the state.

McSally ultimately received 99% of the votes that Trump received. It was close to its total in Maricopa County and nearly identical in Pima County.

Trump lost the state by 0.3 percentage points, in the nation’s closest contest.

So far, Lake has received about 92% of the votes that Trump has.

There were few problems with voting

The job isn’t done yet, but election administrators had a relatively smooth Election Day across Arizona.

A printer ran out of toner in Maricopa County. The counting process will certainly take days. The first results came late in Cochise County.

These were the kinds of problems that cropped up, but none of it points to a process marred by major computer problems, paper shortages or disruptive behavior, such as the bomb threats that temporarily halted voting in a few places in Georgia.

After razor-thin results in 2020 and high-profile, temporary glitches in 2022, Arizona’s election administration has been in the national spotlight for years.

The 2024 results could provide election officials with a new degree of vindication.

Arizona will remain a battleground

Arizona Democrats capped a largely dismal evening nationally with a likely victory in the U.S. Senate race and the possibility they could win at least one of the Legislature’s two chambers. The Maricopa County races were also close.

The results of all these conflicts could go the other way, but even if that were to happen, or even partially happen, it is already clear that Arizona remains one of the most politically competitive states in the country.

That means Arizona’s 2026 gubernatorial race, all the legislative races, the race for attorney general and whatever else ends up on the ballot that will once again be hotly contested.

Enjoy the end of political commercials in the coming year, because it won’t be long after that.

Voters embraced abortion access and immigration measures

There were many ballot measures for voters to wade through, but at least two could capture the spirit of the Arizona election.

Proposition 139, a measure to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, easily passed late Tuesday.

Proposition 314, a provision that would allow local or state law enforcement agencies to make immigration arrests if a Texas law takes effect, also passed. Texas law faces a legal challenge.

In some ways, every measure in Arizona reflects the passion of the political left and right right now, and both could pass. It suggests that neither side of the political spectrum was running roughshod over the other in Arizona. Or, to put it another way, voters considered both measures on their own merits and chose to approve them both.