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Donald Trump Ahead in Just One Swing State: Latest NYT-Siena Poll
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Donald Trump Ahead in Just One Swing State: Latest NYT-Siena Poll

Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the latest Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election.

The poll, released Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.

7,878 likely voters across the seven states were surveyed between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state.

Sienna College/New York Times is one of America’s most trusted pollsters. Polling analyst FiveThirtyEight ranks the company first among 282 pollsters for its historical track record and transparency. Polling analyst Nate Silver ranks the company among the top two polling firms and gives it an A+ grade.

Harris/Trump
Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks before leaving the vice president’s residence in Washington, DC on October 23, 2024. Republican presidential candidate, former US President Donald Trump, speaks during a campaign…


Kevin Dietsch/Anna Moneymaker/GETTY

Since the last round of NYT/Sienna primary battleground elections, momentum has shifted to Harris in Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her but where she is now ahead.

In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump’s favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, had Harris with a four-point lead in the Keystone State – now they are tied.

In Michigan, the results are unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now.

In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead, and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead.

This is a current news item and will be updated.