Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (Image credit: Agencies)

Hours before Election Day, polling analyst Nate Silver released his latest prediction for the 2024 US presidential race, a projection that underlined the razor-thin margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. According to Silver’s latest model run, conducted just after midnight, Harris is narrowly behind Trump in 40,012 of 80,000 simulations, equivalent to 50.015% of possible outcomes. Trump, on the other hand, wins in 39,988 simulations, or 49.985%, a difference that highlights how unpredictable the outcome could be.
Despite Harris having a fractional lead, Silver reiterated the unpredictability of the outcome, calling it a “pure toss.” In this scenario, 39,718 of Trump’s victories were outright victories, while the remaining 270 scenarios ended in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. In such cases, the decision would likely fall to the U.S. House of Representatives, which currently leans Republican, suggesting that Trump could still prevail in such a case.
Close the battle in battleground states
Silver’s prediction is based on the most recent polls, indicating intense competition in states that could determine the election. According to the Silver Bulletin, the polling averages are heavily disputed:

These poll numbers mirror other recent surveys, including the NYT/Sienna and Morning Consult polls, which also found Harris and Trump in near dead heats in several swing states.
In an accompanying note, Silver Bulletin analyst Eli Mckown-Dawson warned of possible inaccuracies in the polls that could skew the final outcome. He pointed out that election errors often affect both candidates and that even a small error can decisively change the outcome. “If the polls are accurate, we’re in for a nail-biter on Tuesday night,” Mckown-Dawson wrote. However, he warned against overconfidence in any projections, especially given the narrow polling margin.
Both Trump and Harris made their final appeal on Monday, visiting key states and urging voters to turn out. Ending her campaign in Philadelphia, Harris rallied in front of a crowd on the famous “Rocky” steps, calling for a win inspired by the underdogs. Trump, meanwhile, held his closing rally in Michigan and urged his supporters to “put ourselves in a position to win.”
As Election Day progresses, millions of voters are expected to flood polling stations across the country. With tensions running high and concerns about post-election violence, security measures have been intensified, especially in major cities. Businesses in Washington DC and other locations have taken precautions, with storefronts boarded up in anticipation of possible unrest.