Non-competitive matches

It is sometimes possible to declare winners at poll closing time in non-competitive multi-candidate races in areas where one political party has an established history of lopsided victories. In these cases, the AP will analyze multiple sources of available data, including the results of AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of both voters and non-voters that determines who voted, how they voted and why, to confirm the outcome.

The AP will not call a race as polls close if AP VoteCast results indicate a departure from the state’s long-standing political trends and voting history. AP VoteCast results will be available for all 50 states, although only a small number will be considered potential close calls. There is no AP VoteCast poll in the District of Columbia, so there will be no contest there when polls close, even though the nation’s capital has a long history of landslide victories for Democratic candidates.

For example, the AP’s close calls in the 2020 presidential election include Wyoming, a state that last voted Democrat in 1968 and where Donald Trump edged Joe Biden by 44 points; and Massachusetts, which last voted for a Republican in 1984 and which Biden won by 34 points over Trump.

A handful of states and counties have multiple polling place closing times because they are in more than one time zone. In these cases, the AP will not declare a winner before the final poll closing time in that state or district. Florida, Texas and some others begin releasing voting results from most of the state shortly after polls close in the earlier time zone. Votes already counted from areas in the earlier time zones will also be taken into account when determining whether a winner can be declared when the final polls close.

Other election data the AP considers includes an area’s voting history from recent elections, voter registration statistics and polling before Election Day.

If the above data points confirm the expected outcome in a state where one of the major parties has dominated elections in the past, the AP may call the race once voting is over.