• Elon Musk has gone all-in to support former President Donald Trump for re-election.
• Musk could gain influence at the federal level if Trump is elected president.
• It is unclear what a Harris administration would mean for Musk and his business empire.

The stakes are high for Elon Musk and his business empire this election season.

Since announcement his support of former President Donald Trump in Julyhas consistently used the billionaire

He has organized his own series of political ‘talks’ and invested more than $130 million in pro-Trump efforts this year. He’s also committed to a daily $1 million giveaway to swing-state registered voters who sign his petition in support of free speech and the right to bear arms.

Musk’s actions beg the question: what does the billionaire stand to gain from a Trump presidency?

Potential, a lot.

Musk under Trump

Many of Musk’s companies are largely dependent on federal approvals, regulations, subsidies or contracts – and Trump has promised a lighter regulatory environment plans to reduce corporate and personal taxes.

If Trump secures the presidency, Francesco Trebbi, a professor of business and public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, told Business Insider that Musk could benefit from “installing key personnel within the public administration.” This could give him valuable connections beyond the next four years, he said.

Trump has already incorporated some of Musk’s policy proposals into his campaign, with plans to create a government efficiency commission led by Musk. Trump has said the committee would conduct a “full financial and performance audit of the entire federal government” and make suggestions for “drastic reforms.”

Musk proposed laying off some federal employees at a town hall in Pennsylvania on October 18.

“What the hell do you need 428 agencies for,” Musk said recently at a meeting in Pittsburgh. “Like why do you even need 100?”

Erik Gordon, area chair of entrepreneurial studies at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, said a Trump presidency could also result in less regulatory scrutiny. That could give Musk “more freedom to develop cutting-edge technologies – one of his favorite pastimes,” Gordon said.

Tesla is at a pivotal juncture, with investors eyeing Musk’s promise to win approval for fully autonomous vehicles in Texas and California. However, ongoing investigations into Tesla’s self-driving technology by government agencies, including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, could set back the company’s autonomous plans.

During a recent earnings call, Musk suggested that if there were a government efficiency commission, he would help move the state-by-state approval process forward with a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”

For SpaceX, Trebbi said a Trump presidency could help the company win big contracts with the Defense Department. That could help the company maintain its lead over rivals like Blue Origin.

Musk under Harris

While Musk could gain power, government contracts and looser regulations under Trump, it is unclear what consequences he could face under a Harris administration.

A key policy on the minds of many business leaders is Harris’ proposed tax plan. She wants to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% – a move that Bank of America estimates could cut profits by 5%. That, combined with the possibility of stricter regulation, could impact a number of companies, including Musk’s.

Gordon said Harris could introduce new safety rules or tax credits for EVs or AVs that favor competition.

For However, Gordon said X would most likely win in the courts under the First Amendment.

Tevi Troy, a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said it is unlikely — and most likely illegal — that Harris would send orders to attack Musk. However, Musk may face “selective enforcement,” said Troy, who is also a former senior White House aide.

“One would hope that government units would be immune to political pressure,” Joan MacLeod Heminway, a law professor at the University of Tennessee, told BI. “But the people in those units are human and may inadvertently investigate proposals coming from entities owned or controlled by Elon Musk.”

It is also possible that nothing significant will change for Musk under the Harris administration.

“We don’t have any strong indication that Harris wants to significantly expand regulatory burdens,” Cary Coglianese, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania and director of the Penn Program on Regulation, told Business Insider.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said a Democratic administration could be better for Musk because Harris supports the Inflation Reduction Act and manufacturing in Mexico, which Trump has spoken out against.

The IRA provides Musk with significant benefits, including a $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles, which benefits Tesla. It also offers tax breaks for solar installations.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, told BI that President Trump, if elected, would support the auto industry, “creating room for both gas and electric vehicles.” However, he plans to end the Green New Deal and withdraw unspent Inflation Reduction Act funds in an effort to “quickly beat inflation and bring down all prices.” Leavitt said.

Musk is playing a risky game

Since Musk has said he has supported Democrats in the past, Trebbi said he might join Trump to secure government aid.

“I see Musk’s realignment with the Republican Party as a hedging strategy designed to avoid government regulation and maintain government support regardless of who wins in November,” Trebbi said.

Coglianese also said it’s possible Musk sees himself as the one who can “turn around the federal government,” similar to his approach to acquiring Twitter.

“It’s also entirely conceivable that he just sees himself as someone who can be a savior,” Coglianese said.

Coglianese said the strategy of aligning with Trump, however, is risky.

“He’s counting on a president who will or will repay Musk for his loyalty,” Coglianese said, adding that it’s not always clear that even his strongest supporters get everything they want.

Carl Icahn secured some EPA relief when he advised Trump during his first term, but his term ended in controversy, Coglianese said. The billionaire investor resigned from his unpaid role amid criticism of potential conflicts of interest.

Other cases ended more favorably. Trump previously said Tim Cook was the only CEO who called him directly when he had a problem. Apple’s CEO has secured an exemption from iPhone tariffs from the former president.

“There are ethics rules that require compliance with various types of obligations, including reporting conflicts of interest, for certain types of government functions,” Heminway said. “Elon Musk may not want to take on these obligations.”