The next tropical threat to the US is in the Caribbean. There are increasing signs that the makings of a tropical storm or even a hurricane are present.

Several computer models predict that a major tropical storm or hurricane will form in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the forecast, with several possible outcomes.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives a moderate chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days. Further development is possible after seven days, and these chances are likely to increase as the development window approaches, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

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“From Texas to Florida, the entire Gulf Coast is still moving,” said Stephen Morgan, FOX Weather meteorologist.

Creating a weather puzzle

It will take a long time for the puzzle pieces to fall into place.

There are strong indications that a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre will develop in the coming days.

The gyre is a vast area of ​​low pressure that feeds on moisture flowing in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a producer of heavy rainfall with effects that extend for hundreds of kilometers, posing threats of torrential rains, flooding, and landslides to more than a dozen countries in and around Central America.

WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE?

However, organized low pressure areas can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes within the larger gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are near last season’s record warm levels.

The ultimate fate of the tropical development will depend on where the vortex originates, how strong it becomes, and the atmospheric steering or blocking patterns that occur over the southern US.

There are four main scenarios for the forecasts, with each scenario posing a greater threat to the US Gulf Coast.

Tropical Threat Scenario 1: A gyre forms, but there is no tropical development

In this case, the atmospheric conditions converge and the broad low pressure area causes rain in Central America. However, the right conditions to create separate low pressure areas never develop.

“This is having the least impact in the continental U.S., (but) that doesn’t tell you anything about what we might see in Central America,” Morgan said. “The gyre is also producing copious amounts of rain, so we’re expecting heavy rainfall from Belize, Guatemala to Honduras, all the way down to Panama, Mexico, just to deal with the rain.”

Tropical Threat Scenario 2: Weak low pressure develops, but is steered westward toward Central America

If low pressure areas form on the northern and western edges of the cyclone and a high pressure area develops over the southern US, it would create a block in the Gulf of Mexico and direct the storms toward Central America instead.

“That could lead to rounds of heavy rainfall (there),” Morgan said. “That could also cause concerns about mudslides and landslides.”

Tropical Threat Scenario 3: Low pressure area develops on the eastern side of the cyclone, but in the Caribbean

In this case, a low pressure area could develop on the eastern side of the vortex, but it would develop further south in the Caribbean.

Ultimately, a cyclone could still reach the Gulf of Mexico and threaten coastal areas.

“Another steering mechanism that we’re looking at very carefully, the potential impacts that could come with it, is a dip in the jet stream,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Kendall Smith. “And if that’s over the eastern U.S., that might pull this system a little bit further north, and that would be more of a concern for folks who live along the Gulf Coast.”

Tropical Threat Scenario 4: Tropical Disturbance Establishes in the Gulf of Mexico

The most frightening scenario is if a low pressure area already forms in the Gulf of Mexico and then uses the record warm water temperatures to rapidly develop into a hurricane.

Forecasts for systems that are just developing or disorganized are subject to large errors and significant change.

“Computer forecasts that predict development over the warm waters of the Caribbean or the extreme southeastern Gulf show a tropical storm or hurricane moving north and potentially impacting the Gulf Coast somewhere between Louisiana and Florida late next week,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “Computer forecasts that predict development over land or that it will remain weak longer have it closer to Mexico. They have it drifting into the western Gulf, blocked by high pressure to the north. It could still impact the Gulf Coast in some way, although it would take longer to develop, pushing the threat further into the future.”

We are still in the middle of hurricane season, so an organized tropical system is not unexpected. The western Caribbean and southern Gulf are always prime locations for tropical development in late September.

“This is something that everybody needs to be a little patient with, because nothing is going to change quickly,” Norcross said. “We’re talking about the end of next week, and everybody from Texas to Florida needs to be watching this and staying informed and seeing how it plays out.”