It’s trade deadline day and fantasy managers are scrambling to keep up with all the moves. AJ Puk and Hunter Harvey were once top saves specs, but both were traded for “the guy” from their former clubs. That makes them Losers. Similarly, Jason Adam and Carlos Estevez find themselves in situations where they get fewer saves than before. That makes them Losers at.

The other big surprise at the deadline was Tampa Bay. Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena are likely to be two of the bigger names traded this year, but it’s not a given that they’ll perform for their new clubs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was traded from the Marlins to the Yankees, but the fit may not be as good as you might initially expect.

Let’s take a closer look at three of the biggest deadline purchases.

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Isaac Paredes (1B/2B/3B, CHC) 89% on the list

Paredes is a classic example of the Rays taking someone no one has ever heard of and turning them into a star. He hit .250/.352/.488 with 31 HR in 2023 and followed it up this season with a .245/.357/.435 with 16 HR over 429 PAs. The odd thing is, there’s nothing in his profile that screams “slugger.”

First, Paredes doesn’t hit the ball hard. His Statcast profile has more blue than his new uniform:

Paredes makes up for this by hitting an insane amount of fly balls (50.5% FB%), which translates his pedestrian 10.7% HR/FB into impressive HR totals. Paredes also has a 45.3% Pull% on his flies, which is geared toward “cheap” homers.

The approach is feasible, but works best in ballparks that are suited to hitters. According to Statcast, Tropicana Field has a 103 HR for right-handed hitters from 2022-2024. Wrigley Field has a 97 HR for right-handed hitters, significantly less suited to hitters than Trop. According to Baseball Savant’s xHR metric, Paredes would have 19 HR if he played all of his games in Tampa, but only 11 in Chicago. If the park switch makes Paredes a .245 hitter with 15 HR, he’s not fantasy viable.

That would be problematic. Paredes boasts excellent plate discipline with a 15.9% K% and 12.1% BB% aided by peripherals (26.2% chase rate, 7.0% SwStr%), but his walks depend on keeping pitchers honest. If he loses his pop, they will challenge him and the walks will dry up.

Paredes’ extreme fly ball tendency also comes with a 22% IFFB%. His .260 BABIP is 17 points higher than his career high of .243, and his .214 xBA suggests a huge batting average disadvantage.

Paredes consistently hits in the heart of Tampa’s order, maximizing his chances of adding to the stats. He’s expected to play fifth for the Cubs, a role that could stifle his R+RBI. The Rays also have a 99 wRC+ as a team, surpassing the Cubs’ record of 95.

It’s rare for a trade deadline acquisition to join a worse lineup in a less important role, but that’s what happened. Paredes is a Softy who probably belongs on the waivers of the standard competitions.

Randy Arozarena (OF, TB) 96% on the list

Arozarena’s overall line of .215/.322/.394 with 15 HR and 16 SB over 419 PA’s is disappointing, but that is largely the result of a terrible April (.143/.220/.241 with a 29.3% K%) and poor May (.178/.299/.400, 28% K%). His play since then has been on par with Arozarena’s level.

Unfortunately, Arozarena was sent to an even worse environment than Paredes. Tropicana is a pitcher’s park for right-handed hitters with a park factor of 96 for hits and runs, which more than makes up for the HR factor of 103.

Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, however, is the worst park for right-handed hitters. Its 85 run factor is five points lower than the next-lowest park, while its 90 hit factor takes a big bite out of the Mariners’ batting average. Seattle’s 95 wRC+ is equal to the Cubs, meaning Arozarena goes to a weaker lineup overall. His scoring stats will likely suffer as a result.

Arozarena has been caught stealing seven times this season, giving him a 70% success rate, which may not give him a green light for a team in the thick of the play-off hunt. Arozarena is too skilled to drop, but he is a Softy compared to expectations two weeks ago.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (OF, NYY) 97% on the list

Chisholm’s .248/.322/.404 line over 435 PAs is meh, but he carries a lot of fantasy juice with 13 HR and 23 SB. He’s always been a guy with more physical tools than stats, and many are hoping Yankee Stadium is just what he needs to close the gap.

Unfortunately, the ballpark switch isn’t as favorable as you might think. Chisholm had a strong home/away split before the trade, hitting .225 at LoanDepot and .277 everywhere else. His career splits aren’t quite as dramatic, however, and are slightly in Miami’s favor (.250 vs. .242).

“But it’s so easy to hit a home run in the Bronx!”, you might say. Yankee Stadium has a huge advantage for left-handed batters, with a left-handed HR factor of 122 to Miami’s 101. Homers aren’t the only offense, though. Miami is the far better park for hits (106 vs. 91) and overall runs (106 vs. 96), meaning we should expect Chisholm’s average to drop.

If Chisholm’s average drops, he’ll also lose SB opportunities. The Yankees don’t want to get into outs for Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, so Chisholm is expected to play fifth going forward. He was the leadoff hitter in Miami, so his new role will yield fewer PAs and runs, even in New York’s superior lineup.

More homers could make up for that, but that’s not guaranteed. Chisholm has the best plate discipline of his career with a 9.0% BB% and 24.8% K% (7.7% BB%, 28% K% career). There’s also a lot less swing-and-miss than last year (12.5% ​​SwStr% vs. 15.2% in 2023).

The trade-off is a decrease in contact quality. In 2023, Chisholm averaged 96.5 mph on his airborne batted balls with a Brls/BBE percentage of 12.2%. This year, those numbers have dropped to 94.6 mph and 10.6%. Chisholm may be tempted to revert to his free-swinging ways to take advantage of Yankee Stadium, or he may not experience the power uptick many expect. Either way, his value takes a hit.

The Yankees need a 3B and there are rumors that Chisholm will be used there at times. However, he has never played the position professionally, which forces him to learn something new. You should try to trade him Softy while the prevailing opinion is that the trade will be positive for its fantasy value.

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