Fantasy football managers think about just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them what makes sense.

Take a deep breath. It’s fantasy football. Make practical decisions about lineups, transactions, and food for the tailgating party, and all will be well. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn’t believe what fantasy managers overthink. Well, you’re (presumably) a fantasy manager. Okay, maybe.

While every star quarterback to date has disappointed fantasy managers, we shouldn’t treat the way Mahomes is performing the same as what’s happening with Allen. To recap, Mahomes hasn’t scored 20 PPR points in a game since last Thanksgiving. He’s averaging 14.2 PPR points per game this season, which, for context, is worse than the Saints’ Derek Carr and barely ahead of Broncos rookie Bo Nix, who is listed in 9% of ESPN leagues .

Meanwhile, Allen was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in Weeks 1 and 3. He didn’t come close to that level the other weeks: He completed just 9 of 30 passes against the Texans last week! — but at least we see how he can be great and carry fantasy teams. These were two of the top three quarterbacks in most fantasy leagues, along with the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, who no one is complaining about.

If you asked most fantasy managers what would have concerned them about Allen, most people would point to the turnover. Allen threw 18 interceptions last season, second only to then-Commander, now Seahawks backup Sam Howell, but we didn’t care because Allen was also fourth in passing yards, ranked fifth in passing touchdowns and had 15 rushing touchdowns, which was good, quite an achievement. Through five games this season, Allen is 22nd in passing yards and has two rushing touchdowns. He’s barely thrown an interception, which is wild considering 34 other QBs have thrown one, and not at all consistent with his history.

While Mahomes has been disappointing every week, but at a reasonable minimum, Allen has been the ultimate all-or-nothing fantasy QB thus far. We’ll put him in our top 10 for this Monday against the Jets. However, will he score 30 fantasy points or just 10? We think Allen is worth the risk. Sure, I ranked some players ahead of him that I wouldn’t have thought of a month ago, like Kirk Cousins ​​and Jayden Daniels, but that risk is in the shocking rankings.

In a strange way, this is a bit like Steelers QB Justin Fields – although the comparisons should end there – another runner with a high statistical ceiling who outpaced Allen in Weeks 2, 4 and 5: the scoring variance is quite high. It’s not for Mahomes, who makes us sad (and retires this week) but at least puts up double-digit fantasy points every week. Allen didn’t do that. We seem to be okay with some variance because of the upside, and that upside remains.

Notice how that goes other Giants WR steps up

We all recognize how great Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers is, but we’ve been too slow to act on third-year option Wan’Dale Robinson. I wrote about the Giants earlier this week and noted that QB Daniel Jones isn’t the same statistical guy from either of the past two seasons, but Nabers isn’t the only reason. Robinson also plays a key role, and perhaps few realize how special his role has become.

Nabers and Robinson are each in the top five in team goal percentage, which helps prove the team lacks depth when both are active, but they don’t get there the same way. No other offense has a pair of players under the top 20 in this statistic. Robinson didn’t see more volume or produce bigger stats when Nabers was absent in Week 5 in Seattle. He just did his normal thing and we all put up 13.8 points per game.

Team target percentage tells us which quarterbacks are heavily favored by certain receivers, and it also gives us hope for some of the struggling players, like Steelers starter George Pickens, the Panthers’ Diontae Johnson and Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey. There were no surprises among last year’s leaders (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown). The only team with a pair of pass catchers (as it could be a tight end or running back, although it never is) in the top 20 was the Buccaneers, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Maybe they’ll come again.

However, Robinson’s value is very different in non-PPR formats. Coming into this week, he’s on pace for 108 receptions, which is great (only six guys caught 108 passes last season), but only 782 receiving yards, which isn’t the case (43 guys reached that mark). It’s quite difficult to catch that many passes and gain so few yards, but Robinson is averaging just 4.9 yards per target and a paltry 7.2 yards per catch. The latter mark ranks 125th out of 141 wide receivers, and the only wide receiver with a lower average is the Browns’ Elijah Moore, making less than half as many receptions. Last season, 23 players caught 80 passes. Only six of those 23 it didn’t surpass 1,000 receiving yards, all tight ends you know.

What Robinson does is valuable – in PPR leagues – but also a bit misleading. The Giants have turned this 6-foot-1, 185-pound guy into their tight end, their version of Evan Engram or TJ Hockenson from last season. There’s nothing empirically wrong with it if it works and rejuvenates the quarterback and the offense, and it could continue. But we have to be aware of it, because what Robinson is doing doesn’t have any statistical advantage either wide receivers. In a strange way, he’s the wide receiver version of the safe but disappointing Mahomes. Robinson arrived with less fanfare. Enjoy these tight end songs.

Don’t assume the Patriots offense will remain dormant

On the surface, it seems like the Patriots are putting rookie QB Drake Maye in exactly the tough situation they wanted to avoid. Veteran Jacoby Brissett started the first five weeks, barely throwing the football and facing constant pressure from opposing defenses. The Patriots have lost four games in a row. Starting Maye versus a strong Texans pass rush seems odd. How can pick No. 3 in the draft succeed this week and in the coming months?

Maye’s baseline for passing for fantasy purposes is low, but for others around him it is higher. The offensive line remains, well, offensive, but Maye has a big body and a strong arm, and he rushed for more than 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns during his last two seasons at North Carolina. He can throw. Patriots rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk should be one of the most added wide receivers, but he remains available in nearly 90% of ESPN’s standard leagues. WR DeMario Douglas and TE Hunter Henry also look better with at least the threat of a passing game downfield. Brissett averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, second-worst among qualified QBs (second to Deshaun Watson, of course).

Maye is a must add in superflex formats. All reasonable quarterbacks are, especially during these bye weeks, but there is a notable upside here. No, he probably won’t perform like Jayden Daniels, but we also need to stop comparing all starting quarterbacks. Daniels is clearly special, just like CJ Stroud was last season. The Bears’ Caleb Williams might be. The Panthers’ Bryce Young may not be, but even as a rookie he made WR Adam Thielen quite relevant to fantasy in the first half of last season. Even in a challenging situation, Maye could thrive, but watch Polk, Douglas and Henry, as well as RB Rhamondre Stevenson, also improve.

Those concerned about Saints WR Chris Olave’s production should not necessarily view Derek Carr’s injury as a positive, but not as a negative either. Spencer Rattler wasn’t the top option that Maye was, but he can throw the ball down the field. Arm strength is not a problem, but decision making can be. Carr showed things to WR Rashid Shaheed this season, but Olave is also averaging career highs in yards per target. He simply didn’t get enough targets. Maybe this will change if Rattler plays, or maybe Alvin Kamara will get 30 rushing attempts. Be open to the potential here. Take Maye over Rattler in superflex, but take them both.