Sleepers. Busts.

Identify one and avoid the other like your fantasy season depends on it. Because maybe. Successfully seeking out undervalued talent, while bypassing players who ultimately underperform, creates a formula that will deliver fantasy dividends throughout the campaign.

The trick, of course, is figuring out before the season who falls into one of the opposing categories, with an eye to skill, opportunity, health, past trends and where each player currently stands on the trajectory of their NHL career.

However relative things may be, of course. Is Sam Reinhart a failure if he scores ‘only’ 40 goals this season instead of 57? Not if you set it up in accordance with expectations to get 40, and another 30 assists or so.

The same goes for “sleepers”. If such under-radar players reach too far too early in the draft, the benefit of pinning such a hidden gem is negated. Timing is key.

On that note, here are a few potential sleepers to consider as late draft acquisitions, or even as free agents once the season starts. Plus a small handful of people who may cause disappointment for their managers when it comes to where they might be picked in the respective drafts.

Sources: Projections | Mock design | Goalkeeper Depth Chart | Most Added/Omitted

Sleepers

Viktor Arvidsson, F, Edmonton Oilers (No. 116 forward)

I wonder how many players wouldn’t agree to leave the milder climate of Southern California for a cooler winter in Alberta in exchange for the chance to play on a par with elite center Leon Draisaitl. Probably not that big of a number. Arvidsson has certainly proven sharp enough, having signed a two-year, $8 million deal for that same opportunity. One of the most underrated strikers in the game, the 31-year-old could reach new productive heights in this new outing. A 70-point campaign feels well within reach. Just two years ago, he scored 59 in 77 games with the Kings. I’m also quite interested to see what veteran Jeff Skinner can accomplish if he stays on par with Connor McDavid. Also keep that relationship in mind.

Jake DeBrusk, F, Vancouver Canucks (No. 146 forward)

If he can keep the score with top player Elias Pettersson, the former Bruin can score forty goals on more than two hundred shots this year. That would be pretty impressive for a skater ranked 146th at his position heading into 2024-2025. DeBrusk is one of my favorite late-round grabs, or even post-draft wire picks, this fall. As long as he emerges from camp in a top-six role alongside Pettersson or JT Miller, as expected.

Tommy Novak, Nashville Predators (No. 180 Forward)

If he ultimately centers the scoring line between Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, as many expect, Novak should easily push past 65 points. Not exactly an outrageous prediction, considering the 27-year-old averaged 0.63 points per game against Predators like Luke Evangelista, Kiefer Sherwood and Mark Jankowski this past season. Good players — Evangelista has a lot of promise — but not Stamkos and/or Marchessault.

Morgan Frost, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 188)

The warm-up is over. In the final year of his current contract, the 25-year-old should establish himself as a bona fide top-six NHL center. A full season between Travis Konecny ​​and Owen Tippett – or perhaps even sizzling prospect Matvei Michkov – at even strength and at No. 1 power should help in that regard. Frost has certainly shown flashes. And John Tortorella won’t tolerate much less. There are only so many private meetings a head coach and player can have. Watch the young center make a big leap this fall.

Anthony Duclair, F, New York Islanders (No. 216 Forward)

Don’t be too surprised if Duclair becomes the Islanders’ leading scorer at the end of the season. After signing a four-year deal, he is expected to skate on New York’s top line, and possibly New York’s No. 1 position. 1 power play unit. Having spent his junior years with the QMJHL Quebec Remparts, he knows what coach Patrick Roy stands for (and vice versa). When in trouble, the well-traveled 29-year-old is a dynamic goalscoring threat. Just have a little patience if Duclair production dries up for a while. The high-ceiling winger tends to heat/cold in more extreme ways than most.

Kirby Dach, F, Montreal Canadiens (No. 258 Forward)

First, he must stay healthy. A concern after the third overall draft selection (2019) missed all but two games last season with a knee injury. Then his new likely linemate, Patrik Laine, must also stay fit and invest in performing as well as possible. But if everything goes as well as coach Martin St. Louis dreams, both the 23-year-old center and the former 44-goal scorer could be in for a great ride in Montreal this season. Which would indeed make Dach a sneaky gem in the deepest fantasy leagues.

Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers (defender #74)

While it feels a little strange to slap the “sleeper” label on a former prolific fantasy performer after last year’s injury-plagued four-goal/14-assist hobble, here we are. Fortunately, his strong showing during the Panthers’ successful Cup run suggests his troublesome shoulder, along with other late-season physical issues, no longer hinder him. Oh, and now that Brandon Montour has left for Seattle, the veteran is expected to once again anchor Florida’s top power. A major fantasy deal, indeed. The true No. 1 draft pick (2014) could serve well as a No. 3/4 defenseman on teams in decent-sized fantasy leagues. He deserves a significantly higher ranking than 74th.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings (No. 29 goaltender)

Kuemper is a good goalkeeper who has had a bad year. Now that he’s back in LA, where he landed for a brief stint in 2017-2018, the ex-Capital is ready to right his own netminding ship. Playing for a more defensively sound team will help. A lot of. The 34-year-old should also see plenty of action, with David Rittich the Kings’ No. 2 pick.

See also:

• JJ Peterka, F, Buffalo Sabres

• Quinton Byfield, F, Los Angeles Kings

• Gabriel Vilardi, F, Winnipeg Jets

• William Eklund, F, San Jose Sharks

• Leo Carlsson, F, Anaheim Ducks

• Connor Zary, F, Calgary Flames

• Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs

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Busts

Frank Vatrano, F, Anaheim Ducks (No. 27 forward)

Prior to last season’s outburst of 37 goals (13.6%) and 23 assists, the 30-year-old had not amassed more than 41 points in a full season. Not with the Bruins, Panthers or even the Ducks the season before. (His 2021-2022 stint with the Rangers was too short to accurately assess.) With future Cutter Gauthier on board and second-year player Leo Carlsson expected to take a significant step forward, Vatrano plans to take a secondary power game in Anaheim to skate. round. It will be difficult for him to repeat the unprecedented productive performance of a year ago, especially with the extra skater.

MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames (No. 10 defenseman)

I’m a big MacKenzie Weegar fan. But to expect another 52-point season, 15 of which came with the extra skater, is too big an ask. A top-10 fantasy defenseman? Even in competitions that reward physical play, it feels like a significant effort.

Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators (No. 6 goaltender)

The ex-Bruin’s move to Ottawa worries me greatly. While they are moving in the right direction, the Senators are not yet on the same level as Boston, especially defensively. No doubt Ullmark is going to make a lot of plays and steal a few. He will also have to endure some much tougher matches, which will leave his managers with negative numbers in ESPN’s standard competitions.

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