Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
 
Let’s dive in . . .

Lions Taking No Prisoners

When the Lions beat the Jaguars 52-6 on Sunday, it represented their third win this season by at least 38 points. No team in NFL history has more.

According to Profootballtalk.com’s Michael David Smith, seven other teams in NFL history have won by 38 or more points three times in a season (counting both regular season and postseason games), but no team has done it four times. The Lions have seven more games in the regular season, and likely some games in the postseason as well, to become the first team ever to win four games by such a large margin.

That historical perspective is great. 

But for those of us invested in this offense and living in the moment, it’s even greater.

The Lions have the three biggest blowouts in the NFL this season: Their win over the Jaguars was the biggest blowout of the year, and the Lions’ 52-14 win over the Titans and 47-9 win over the Cowboys were the next two biggest wins of any team in the NFL. No team other than the Lions has won a game by 38 or more points this season.

On Sunday, Detroit became the first team since the 2007 Patriots to score a touchdown on each of its first seven drives of a game. The Lions are also the first club since the 2014 Rams to score seven-plus touchdowns and allow zero TDs in a game.

Detroit has scored a league-high 336 points. Baltimore (334), Buffalo (320), and Washington (308) are the only other teams over 300 points this season.

With a plus-159 point differential this season, the Lions have outscored their opponents by more than two touchdowns per game, and no other team in the league has won a game by more than 37 points in 2024. The Lions are also outscoring opponents plus-99 (188-89) at home this season, which is the most by any team in the NFL.

As Smith put it, “They’re dominating like no other team in the league this year, and like few other teams in NFL history . . .”

Fearless Finishers

Winning games by blowout raises questions about running up the score and keeping starters in the game for too long. Head coach Dan Campbell says he understands that some will criticize his approach to continuing to play his top players with big leads, but he welcomes that criticism.

“Normally, this doesn’t happen. This is the third time this has come up this season. That’s a good problem to have,” Campbell said. “You want to know that you finish on a good note, you found a rhythm, you keep the rhythm.”

Against the Jaguars, Jared Goff was still in the game, throwing passes, into the fourth quarter, and so were the rest of the Lions’ starters. 

Once the starting offense scored its seventh touchdown on seven possessions, Campbell eventually pulled Goff and other starters. 

“You got to do what you got to do to finish the game out,” Campbell said.

What about injuries? 

“I do not want to let the fear of injury take away from our identity,” he said. “The minute you start worrying about injuries, that’s when bad things happen.”

And so for the season, the only bad outcomes have been those of the opposition . . .

Perfect . . . Again

Until Sunday, no player in NFL history had multiple games with at least 400 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. 

But now Goff has done it.

The veteran signal caller finished Sunday’s win over the Jaguars with 412 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 158.3 passer rating. In 2018, while with the Rams, Goff had a game with 465 yards, five touchdowns, and a 158.3 passer rating.

Only seven times in NFL history has a quarterback finished a game with 400 yards, four touchdowns, and a perfect passer rating.

Goff is the only player on the list twice.

The other five quarterbacks who have reached those thresholds in a game are Ken O’Brien in 1986, Nick Foles in 2013, Dak Prescott in 2019, Aaron Rodgers in 2019 and Deshaun Watson in 2019 . . .

On The Run?

As ESPN.com’s Eric Woodyard noted, Goff typically isn’t viewed as a mobile quarterback. He’s known for efficiency and pinpoint accuracy, but his mobility was on display against Jacksonville as he rushed for 21 yards off four carries. 

Goff hadn’t rushed for 20 or more yards in a game since Sept. 20, 2021, at Green Bay, when he had 46.

Of course, he doesn’t have to run much thanks to dominant offensive line play.

Goff had all day to pick apart Jacksonville’s defense, pressured on just six dropbacks, completing four passes for 135 yards and two TDs on those plays. 

As NFL.com’s Kevin Patra suggested, “It looked like a 7-on-7 practice for Detroit . . .”

Everybody Benefits

Scoring a 33.6-point per game clip is great for fantasy investors. Better still, everybody is getting their fair share. That was evident Sunday as the Lions used a balanced attack to demolish Jacksonville. 

Jahmyr Gibbs generated 123 scrimmage yards with a TD. Fellow running back David Montgomery earned 75 yards and two scores. Amon-Ra St. Brown was uncoverable, catching all 11 of his targets for 161 yards and two TDs. Jameson Williams exploded for a 64-yard TD en route to a 124-yard total. With Sam LaPorta sidelined by a shoulder injury, Brock Wright scored a touchdown.

As a result, fantasy managers have an array of options . . .

Here’s Where We Stand

Both Lions running backs are currently delivering RB1-level numbers. Gibbs is RB6 with an average of 18.2 points per game. Montgomery is RB12 with 16.5 points per game.

St. Brown is WR2, averaging 19.1 points per game after scoring a touchdown in eight straight games. His role — he’s seen target shares of 35 percent, 33 percent, and 36 percent over his last three games, adds to the appeal. Jameson Williams is WR36 despite missing two games due to suspension. His 13.2 points per game ranks 27th. 

Williams, whose final Average Draft Position as the season opened was WR47, has easily exceeded expectations. The same goes for Goff, who is QB11 with 17.2 points per game. He had a QB14 ADP as the draft season wound down in September.

The only player falling short of expectations is Sam LaPorta. 

The second-year tight end, whose final ADP was TE2, is currently TE19 with an average of 8.8 points per game. Touchdown production has been an issue. He scored 10 touchdowns last season. He’s only scored three times this season . . .

Concerns Ahead?

With a generous Colts defense on the schedule, all systems are go for the Lions in Week 12. 

After that, Detroit hosts the Bears in Week 13, Green Bay in Week 14, and the Bills in Week 15 before closing out on the road in Chicago (Week 16) and San Francisco (Week 17). They finish the season in Chicago in Week 18.

So, the schedule is challenging. But with their Week 5 bye a distant memory, fantasy managers will be able to field all the healthy Lions they want for the stretch run . . .

Bo Knows Momentum

Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix played the best game of his young career on Sunday and was recognized for it on Wednesday when he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.

Nix finished Sunday’s 38-6 victory over Atlanta 28-of-33 for 307 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions — good for a 145.0 passer rating. He was sacked only once in the contest. Nix is the first rookie in NFL history to have a game with 80 percent completions, four or more passing TDs, and 300 or more pass yards.

Through 11 starts, Nix has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 2,275 yards with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions, helping the Broncos to a 6-5 record. 

But the key has been his steady improvement. 

Remember, Nix threw no touchdown passes and four interceptions in the first two games. He has 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the nine games since. He has 13 touchdown passes in the past seven games and has topped 70 percent completions in four, including against the Falcons. He has thrown just two interceptions in the past nine games . . .

Giving Us What We Need

For fantasy managers, the outcomes have been remarkable. 

Nix was QB22 through the first four games. He’s been QB4 since, averaging 21.3 points per game over the last seven weeks.

So we love him. 

And now the NFL is catching up with us as Nix has joined the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation. 

Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was the easy pick a month ago, but Nix, who now has a four-TD lead on Daniels, is only 63 passing yards behind Daniels and is even with him on rushing TDs (four each), may be playing the best of all of the rookie signal-callers right now . . .

A-Rich Is Who We Thought He Was?

Did quarterback Anthony Richardson show progress in his return to the lineup?

As ESPN.com’s Stephen Holder suggested, it wasn’t perfect, but Richardson took a step in the right direction after two weeks on the bench. 

Holder noted that the second-year man was more rhythmic in his passing, more accurate with his throws, and looked more in command of the offense. He generated a career-high 272 passing yards and two passing touchdowns (tied for his career-best) against the Jets. He also tied his career-high with two rushing TDs (10 carries, 32 rushing yards). He used his legs as a bulldozing force in the red zone. 

And his accuracy was as good as we’ve seen (66.7 percent is by far his season best in a game with five-plus passes).

As NFL.com’s Kevin Patra wrote, “There are still some shaky throws, but his lasers over the middle won all day. This is the type of performance the Colts envisioned in 2024.”

After the game, Richardson said his two-game benching “allowed me to take a step back and just clean up some things that I have to clean up,” resulting in him feeling more relaxed than he has at any other point in his professional career.

“I wouldn’t say the most prepared or the most confident, just the most relaxed I’ve been,” Richardson told the team’s website. “There wasn’t really any pressure on me; I was just out there taking it one play at a time. That’s what I kept telling my teammates, one play at a time, and that was probably the biggest thing today.”

Well, the biggest thing was the fantasy outcome.

Richardson was QB2 on the week with 30.1 fantasy points. This was the upside we drafted him for. And, for the record, we saw it Week 1 as well. Richardson was QB5 in the opener with 26.1 points.

It wasn’t great after that, but the return to action was promising enough for those who held onto Richardson through his short slide and subsequent ride on the pine to roll him out going forward.

But ups and downs, which should have been the expectation all along, are coming because . . .

He’s Different 

PFT’s Smith laid it out perfectly this week when he explained, “Richardson is practically playing a different game than any other passer in the NFL.” 

Smith went on to acknowledge that Richardson’s completion percentage of 48.5 percent is awful. 

“It’s not just last in the NFL this season, it’s the worst the NFL has seen in many years,” Smith wrote. “The last quarterback who threw at least 150 passes and finished a season with a worse completion percentage than Richardson’s this year was Tim Tebow, who finished the 2011 season with a 46.5 percent completion percentage.”

But Richardson is hitting deep balls downfield like no other player in the league. 

Against the Jets, Richardson completed 9 of 12 attempts of 10-plus air yards for a career-high 185 yards, including 2 of 2 for 56 yards on downfield passes on the Colts’ game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.

As a result, he’s averaging 15.6 yards per completion this season, more than two yards ahead of No. 2 Lamar Jackson, who is averaging 13.4 yards per completion. The last quarterback who threw at least 150 passes and finished a season with a better yards per completion average than Richardson’s this year was Chris Chandler with the 1998 Falcons.

This should have been the expectation all along. It’s consistent with the scouting reports on him when the Colts drafted him last year: He has a phenomenal arm and can throw deep balls like few other passers in football, but he hasn’t shown a consistent ability to command an NFL-style passing game.

But when he’s on, Richardson can fuel the fantasy fortunes of others. 

Josh Downs finished Week 11 as WR11 after catching all five of his targets for 84 yards and one touchdown.

Downs can have value with Richardson as a quarterback, after all. He should be in lineups this week in what could be a high-scoring matchup against Detroit.

The other wideouts here also have value, especially in a week with six teams on bye. 

Michael Pittman Jr. caught five of eight targets for 46 yards, good for a WR44 finish, while Alec Pierce caught three of four targets for 74 yards and a WR40 finish . . .

This And That

King Of The Hill

In the Aug. 18 edition of the Fantasy Notebook, I wrote, “If you’re wondering why I’m sitting here talking about off-the-radar fantasy tight ends, it’s like this: The Saints Taysom Hill has been the very definition of off the radar, yet he finished 2023 as fantasy’s No. 12-scoring tight end.

“Sometimes, it’s more about usage and opportunity for these players.”

On Sunday, Hill demonstrated all that by piling up a career-high 138 rushing yards on seven carries. Three of those runs resulted in touchdowns, including a career-long 75-yard scamper for a score. He chipped in eight catches for 50 yards, marking the first time he’s broken 100 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving in a game in his career. 

He even threw an interception, which didn’t bother anybody who played him as their tight end in this one.

When all was said and done, Hill had scored 41.5 fantasy points, the most by fantasy tight end this year . . . 

For what it’s worth, Hill is the first player with three rushing touchdowns, 50 receiving yards, and one pass completion in a game since the Chiefs’ Ed Podolak in 1971. In addition, Hill is the second player in NFL history to surpass 25 rushing touchdowns, 10 touchdown passes, and 10 touchdown catches . . .

Also Saintly

While the Saints’ offensive resurgence began with the return of Derek Carr two weeks ago, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a major factor.

Valdes-Scantling joined the team only a month ago but has proved he can be an explosive element with Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for the season. He has now scored three touchdowns in two games, tying the team lead in receiving touchdowns. He had a 71-yard touchdown in the first half Sunday . . .

Change For The Better

As reported here last week, the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron following the Bears’ fourth straight loss in Week 10. Thomas Brown took over play-calling Sunday and emphasized running the ball — 34 runs, 34 dropbacks — and getting the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands quicker. 

The results were promising.

In what NFL.com’s Eric Edholm characterized as “perhaps his cleanest and best showing of the season,” Williams completed 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards and scrambled for a season-best 70 yards in a loss to the Packers. 

The fantasy result was mediocre because the running backs scored both touchdowns, but Williams could still be useful in better matchups than this week’s game against the Vikings . . .

All Aboard The Achane

According to ESPN.com’s Marcel Louis-Jacques, we should expect another massive workload for running back De’Von Achane this week.

After failing to record a carry in Week 10, Raheem Mostert ran the ball three times for minus-2 yards Sunday. Meanwhile, Achane recorded 17 carries for 73 yards, adding 32 receiving yards on four catches. Mostert’s ball security issues paved the way for Achane to take an even stronger hold on this backfield, which doesn’t appear to be changing soon . . .

More Than A Streamer?

According to NFL.com’s Christian Gonzalez, one of the best moments in Sunday’s afternoon slate was Jonnu Smith’s 57-yard touchdown. The eight-year veteran TE was the X-factor in Miami’s win, getting open in the middle of the field and being a reliable target for Tua Tagovailoa.

Smith finished the game with six catches for a season-high 101 yards and two touchdowns.

It was Smith’s first 100-receiving yard game since Week 9 of the 2023 season. It appears that Smith has found his footing in Mike McDaniel’s offense, and his emergence in a talented Miami unit makes the Dolphins a dangerous team down the stretch.

More importantly, fantasy managers get another viable option at a position without enough consistent producers to satisfy our needs . . .

Hope For The Future

Jerry Jeudy had his best game of the season with a 142-yard performance (his first 100-plus-yard game since 2022). Elijah Moore delivered an acrobatic touchdown catch. And wide receiver Cedric Tillman chipped in with 47 yards. 

As ESPN.com’s Daniel Oyefusi noted, all three players are 25 or younger and have stepped up since the trade of Amari Cooper, giving the Browns something to be bullish on as they inch closer to their third losing season since Kevin Stefanski became coach in 2020.

Of course, the long-term prospects of all three wideouts will depend significantly on the Browns’ plans at quarterback, which are currently as clear as mud . . . 

Super Bowers

With Michael Mayer playing for the first time since Week 3, targets to tight ends for the Raiders would seemingly be at a premium, right?

Wrong.

Brock Bowers continued his Pro Bowl-level season with a career-high 13 catches for 124 yards. That was his first triple-digit receiving yardage NFL game, including a 23-yard touchdown.

Meanwhile, Bowers, with 706, has passed Kyle Pitts for the second-most receiving yards in NFL history among tight ends in their first 10 games of their rookie season. Bowers is now only behind Hall of Fame TE Mike Ditka (869) . . .

Deck The Hall

For the first time in his career, running back Breece Hall scored a rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game. As ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini suggested, that’s a surprise, considering he’s been such a productive receiver. 

The offense is a lot better when Hall is heavily involved. He produced 121 total yards from scrimmage, including two explosive plays — 29 yards (receiving TD) and 18 yards (TD run) . . .

Racking Them Up

With Justin Jefferson’s 81 receiving yards in Sunday’s win, he now has 6,811 career receiving yards, passing Torry Holt (6,784) for the most in NFL history in a player’s first five seasons . . .

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I’ll encapsulate that broad expanse here.

The Good

Packers receiver Christian Watson entered Sunday with only 27 targets this season, but his four catches for 150 yards provided the big-play spark the Packers needed in beating the Bears on Sunday.

As Edholm wrote, “He’s been a mystery wrapped in an enigma most of his Packers career, but there’s no doubting Watson’s ability to impact games.”

In Chicago, the athletic wideout hauled in catches of 25 and 48 yards in the second half, setting up the Packers inside the Bears’ 10-yard line on both. The first led to the Packers taking a 14-13 lead, and he helped set up the go-ahead TD near the game’s end — a diving 60-yard catch and run (which held up on replay) to the Chicago 14-yard line. 

Jordan Love’s connection with Watson has been hit or miss this season, but Love trusted Watson in big spots and was rewarded. Here’s hoping it leads to more opportunities for Watson . . .

The Bad

It’s a bad week to be an NFL quarterback in New York.

Members of the Giants organization are reportedly unhappy with the decision to bench Daniel Jones. Per Fox Sports’ Jordan Schultz, there is a sense of “disappointment” about the decision, and players are upset that it was “primarily a financial decision.”

“He’s the QB1. To me, he’s the best quarterback on the team,” offensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II said.

Another player anonymously voiced his frustrations to Schultz.

“We’re not idiots. They did it because of money. So be it,” the player said. “But Daniel has been all class, never complained, and is now being completely disregarded. The team record is bad. You can point fingers everywhere. To try to blame him is trash, and making him third string is weak as f–k.”

The Giants moved Tommy DeVito ahead of Drew Lock as the starter and signed Tim Boyle as their No. 3, relegating Jones to QB4 status.

Jones has two years remaining on his contract and is set to earn $30 million in 2025 and $46.5 million in 2026. Within his contract lies a clause that states if he were to suffer an injury that prevented him from being able to pass a physical next March, the Giants would owe him $23 million whether he is on the team or not.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to remain the Jets’ starting quarterback in 2025.

Per Cimini, the dismissal of general manager Joe Douglas this week ended whatever possibility existed of Rodgers returning.

“It’s hard to imagine him even wanting to come back,” Cimini wrote. SNY’s Connor Hughes expressed a similar view, writing, “It’s very clear now that this organization is going to find a new quarterback.” It’s reasonable to believe a new general manager and head coach would want to start with their quarterback of choice. 

Owner Woody Johnson might want the same thing. It’s possible he wanted it before anybody else in the organization.

According to a report by the Athletic’s Zach Rosenblatt and Dianna Russini, Johnson suggested the benching of Rodgers after a Week 4 loss to the Broncos.

The Jets are off this week, but it’ll be interesting to hear Rodgers’ take on this, whether it comes during his weekly Tuesday spot on the Pat McAfee Show or next Wednesday at his regular press conference. 

Whatever he says — and does — about all this could provide clues about his future . . .

The Ugly

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had been on a nice run of late, but the Bills held him to two catches for 8 yards. 

He has had big games against Buffalo in recent seasons, and there was no way the Bills would allow him another performance like the 5-catch, 75-yard, 2-touchdown showing he had in the playoffs last season.

Instead, fellow tight end Noah Gray caught four of five targets for 23 yards and two touchdowns . . .

The Final Word

That’s it for this week’s Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.

Beyond that, I hope you’ll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You’ll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.

I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It’s all fair game. 

Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.

Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio’s The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.

Follow @footballdiehard

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