Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 12, which kicks off Thursday with the Steelers at the Browns.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to:
KC-CAR | MIN-CHI | TEN-HOU | DET-IND | NE-MIA | TB-NYG
DAL-WAS | DEN-LV | SF-GB | ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC

Projected Score: Vikings 20, Bears 18

Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore

T.J. Hockenson appeared to be solidly back in the TE1 mix after posting an 8-72-0 receiving line on nine targets in Week 10. However, he regressed to just 13 yards on three targets in Week 11 and continues to play a limited role. Hockenson has played on 45-46% of snaps in all three games since his return and, after solid 67% route participation in Week 10, he dipped to 49% last week. Better days are ahead for Hockenson, but the step back last week and a tough matchup against a Chicago defense that hasn’t allowed any TE catching scores since Week 1 suggests he’s more of a fringe TE1 than a “lineup lock.”

Over/Under: 37.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 57% (12th highest)

Projected Score: Lions 28, Colts 17

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Downs

Anthony Richardson returned to the starting lineup last Sunday and proceeded to deliver the second-best fantasy performance of his career. The second-year quarterback threw for 272 yards (with a TD pass), adding 32 yards and two rushing scores. In eight full career games, Richardson has now produced 20-plus fantasy points four times (an 26.2 average). However, he also fell short of 12 fantasy points in the other four (an 8.8 average). Richardson’s boom/bust output makes him a risky fantasy option. He’s best left on benches against a terrific Detroit pass defense that has faced the third-most passing attempts, but has allowed a league-low seven passing scores. No QB has cleared 21.6 fantasy points against them.

Over/Under: 45.1 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 84% (2nd highest)

Projected Score: Dolphins 26, Patriots 20

Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill

It’s just not happening for Jaylen Waddle. The fourth-year receiver came out strong with 112 yards and 16.2 fantasy points in Week 1, but has failed to clear 56 yards or 8.6 fantasy points in any of his past nine outings. Waddle is averaging a weak 4.7 targets per game and has only one touchdown. Waddle’s usage and production suggests he’s best left on benches, although with six teams on a bye and in a good matchup (the Patriots have allowed the seventh-most WR yards and 10th-most WR fantasy points), he’s a justifiable Week 12 flex option.

Over/Under: 46.3 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 72% (6th highest)

Projected Score: Buccaneers 26, Giants 19

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Mike Evans, Malik Nabers, Cade Otton

Tommy DeVito has replaced Daniel Jones as the Giants’ starting QB. DeVito played five full games during his rookie season in 2023 and wasn’t particularly impressive. He made waves with a 246-yard, 3-TD game in Week 11 against Washington, but failed to clear 191 yards in the other four outings (adding only four more TD passes to his total). The Giants’ offense can’t get much worse as it ranks last in touchdowns — both this season and since 2020. So, the key here will simply be whether or not DeVito can successfully get the ball in the hands of Nabers, Tracy and Wan’Dale Robinson. This is a terrific matchup for the Giants’ offense and they have a lot of them down the stretch. Tampa Bay sits top six in fantasy points allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. Nabers and Tracy should remain in lineups, whereas Robinson is a PPR flex option. DeVito is a back-end starting option in superflex formats.

Over/Under: 44.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72% (5th highest)

Projected Score: Commanders 28, Cowboys 17

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin

Through the two games since Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury, Lamb is the only Dallas player with more than 18.0 total fantasy points. Lamb (130 yards on 16 touches during the span) remains a “lineup lock” (albeit with reduced expectations) and is the only Dallas player who fits that bill. Rico Dowdle remains Dallas’ lead back, but he has been limited to 90 yards on 27 touches in the two games (7.0 fantasy PPG). He’s a low-upside flex. Jake Ferguson was held to 24 yards on six targets in Week 10 prior to leaving Monday night’s game early with a concussion. He would be a fringe top-10 option if he’s able to play this week, but that’s not looking to be likely.

Over/Under: 44.2 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 86% (Highest)

Projected Score: Chiefs 26, Panthers 17

Lineup locks: Kareem Hunt, Chuba Hubbard, Travis Kelce

The Chiefs made it a point to get the ball in the hands of Xavier Worthy in Week 11 and it paid dividends. The speedy rookie produced 68 yards and his sixth touchdown of the season on five touches. The touchdowns and occasional big plays are nice, but there are still some major red flags here. Worthy was limited to five targets and has now seen five or fewer targets in seven out of 10 games, including three straight. His 60% snap rate on Sunday was actually below his 63% season average and his 15% target share on the season doesn’t scream “consistent fantasy production.” Perhaps Worthy will continue to ascend, but for now, both he and DeAndre Hopkins (under 10.0 fantasy points in two straight) are best viewed as no more than WR3/flex options.

Over/Under: 43.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 81% (3rd highest)

Projected Score: Texans 21, Titans 17

Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell

In the two games since Tyjae Spears has returned from injury, the second-year back has totaled 10 carries and six targets on 48 snaps (45%). That’s compared to 18 carries and eight targets on 62 snaps (58%) for Tony Pollard. The huge downgrade in Pollard’s role has been brutal for his fantasy output, as he has totaled a mere 92 yards (zero TDs) on 24 touches in the two games, though note that the schedule was also extremely hard — both the Chargers and Vikings rank in the top three in terms of fewest RB fantasy points allowed. Of course, life won’t be much easier this week against a Houston defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards and fantasy points to the position. Pollard should be viewed as a fringe RB2, whereas Spears (yet to reach 12.0 fantasy points in any game) should be on benches or waivers.

Over/Under: 38.1 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 63% (11th highest)

Projected Score: Broncos 23, Raiders 14