Since Powell usually uses the press conference to refine the message in the statement, the key lesson of the next hour will be how dovey he sounds. Does he convey the idea that there might be 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year or does he hold back and try to base the conversation on watching the data, being cautious and needing confidence before they cut again?

The challenge for him will be to rein in the market narrative that the Fed has likely already abandoned.