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In recent years, the US economy has squeezed inflation like mop water out of virtually every sector except the housing market, which remains paralyzed by high prices and chronically low supply.

But the action that could help solve America’s housing affordability crisis has the potential to make it worse. To understand why, let’s look at how we got here.

At the heart of the housing puzzle is an imbalance between supply and demand. It’s Econ 101: There are more people looking to buy than there are homes for sale. That was true even before the pandemic hit and demand went through the roof. The market had become nearly impenetrable after mortgage rates went from historic lows in 2020 to their highest levels in a generation last year.

When the Federal Reserve (almost certainly) cuts rates on Wednesday, that should theoretically shake up the market.

But much depends on how aggressively the central bank moves to lower borrowing costs across the board.

A half-percentage point rate cut — which seems unlikely but not impossible — would send a signal to the market that the Fed is serious about reversing the “lock-in” effect that makes homeowners with low-interest-rate mortgages reluctant to sell in a high-interest-rate environment.

If the Fed were to reverse course as drastically as it did by raising rates, borrowing costs would fall, creating a flood of existing homes and driving prices down somewhat.

“As counterintuitive as it sounds, in this post-pandemic cycle, this would be an undiminished good,” Daniel Alpert, managing partner of Westwood Capital, told me. Lowering the cost of owner-occupied housing also pulls people out of the rental market, which in turn drives down rents — what Alpert calls a “Goldilocks scenario.”

But a slower, more gradual easing may not scare homeowners, especially those with those sub-3% mortgages early in the pandemic, into moving as quickly. That’s especially true now that U.S. home prices remain at record highs.

That’s part of the supply problem.

The Fed can’t build houses, but it can — by indirectly influencing mortgage rates with its benchmark rate — make the prospect of selling more attractive to homeowners. Market expectations of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting have already pushed mortgage rates down to 6.2% last week, from 6.7% in early August.

“If the Fed takes a more dovey turn, I think we could get down to about 6%,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, told me. “And I think if we got down to 5.9%, that would really have a psychological impact on the housing market. I don’t think it would get us all the way back to pre-pandemic inventory. But it could get a lot of people off the fence.”

Potential homebuyers — and people who have bought homes in recent years — are clamoring for any relief they can get. The current average mortgage rate of 6.2% is, of course, better than last year’s peak of 7.8% — a difference that can translate into hundreds of dollars in monthly payments.

All of which brings us to the potential unintended consequences of the Fed’s actions this week and in the months ahead. By solving the demand side of the equation without solving the supply problem, the Fed could be making the housing affordability problem it’s trying to solve worse.

As my colleague Samantha Delouya wrote this week, a drop in mortgage rates can be a double-edged sword.

“It’s one of those things where you have to be careful what you wish for,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “A further drop in mortgage rates could create an increase in demand, making it harder to actually buy a home.”