The WNBA playoff picture is starting to take shape. Seven of the eight spots are locked up after Tuesday’s games — the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever came within minutes of each other, while the Chicago Sky and Atlanta Dream both lost — and some seeding levels are starting to take shape.

But there’s plenty more excitement to be had as teams make their final push of the regular season, whether they’re fighting for a better position or simply a spot in the playoffs.

Until now, the focus has been on which teams are on top (the Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever) and which are on bottom (the Seattle Storm and Chicago Sky) since the season resumed after the Olympic break. But with 16 days left in the regular season, anyone can have an impact on the upcoming playoff race — one with a litany of contenders.

As the postseason approaches, ESPN’s Michael Voepel and Alexa Philippou take stock of and attempt to answer the five biggest questions about the WNBA.

Who will take the eighth playoff spot?

While Phoenix and Indiana officially weighed in on Tuesday, the race for eighth place is still wide open. Chicago appeared to claim the spot in the first half of the season but has the league’s worst active losing streak (seven games), having lost all but one of its games since the Olympics. Atlanta started strong in August with three straight wins but has since lost five of six. Both teams are tied in the standings at 11-22. The Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings aren’t completely out of the picture either, trailing Chicago/Atlanta by just one and two games, respectively.

ESPN Analytics says the final playoff spot will fall to either the Dream (53.7%) or the Sky (36.5%), making their Sept. 17 meeting in Atlanta more important (note: the Sky currently hold the season series lead at 2-1). Can the now-healthy Dream, with Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard back in the lineup, consistently play to their potential?

Meanwhile, it’s hard to see Chicago changing course without leading scorer Chennedy Carter, who has missed five games since the Olympics due to illness. Even then, the Sky are just 1-3 when she has played. –Alexa Philippou

Who will ultimately host the first round?

The top four seeds host the first round of the playoffs. The New York Liberty are a sure bet to be one of those teams; the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota are also a near certainty. All three have distinguished themselves as top contenders for the championship.

The final host appears to be between the Las Vegas Aces (21-12), Seattle (20-13) — and possibly even Indiana (17-16).

The Aces have had more ups and downs than expected, but they still have the heavy favorite for MVP, A’ja Wilson. She and Las Vegas’ other star players — Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young — have combined to go 16-3 in the playoffs and won the championship the past two years. Hosting again as a higher seed would give them a boost heading into 2024.

That said, coach Becky Hammon said Tuesday that she was less concerned about that than about getting the Aces to where they play their best when it matters most: the postseason. Plum did not play in Tuesday’s 90-71 win over Chicago because of an ankle injury, with Hammon saying it was more of a precaution to rest her, similar to how she sidelined Young last Friday against Atlanta.

Seattle missed the playoffs last season, but added key free agent talent in Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith. The Storm’s defense has generally been solid, but it has let them down in four of their losses since the Olympic break. Still, at their best — as in Tuesday’s 71-64 win over Connecticut — they can compete for that final host spot. Should Las Vegas and Seattle finish the regular season with the same record, expect the Aces to lead the season series 2-1 and the teams will meet again on Sept. 17 in Seattle.

Indiana has the most ground to make up, while also needing the Aces and Storm to lose. One advantage for the Fever: Six of their last seven games are at home. –Michael Voepel

Is New York still a favorite to win the championship?

No. First-place Liberty hasn’t been the best team in the league in the second half. They’ve lost two of their last four games (home to the Sun and away to last-place Los Angeles Sparks). They had four Olympians plus coach Sandy Brondello in Paris, so post-Olympics fatigue could be a factor.

But the Liberty were without Betnijah Laney-Hamilton in the loss to Connecticut, whom they dominated 3-1 in the season series. The loss to the Sparks was worse, but Jonquel Jones was absent due to a non-COVID illness. Sabrina Ionescu also missed a few games with a neck issue that seemed to throw her off her rhythm. All three are back now, giving the Liberty a more complete roster than they had for most of the summer. The availability of Laney-Hamilton, who underwent minor knee surgery in July, remains key to a championship.

New York could still clean up on turnovers — it’s committing 16.1 per game since the break, second-most in the league — but it has the best second-half net rating (plus-13.2) behind its top-ranked defense. Another good sign: Breanna Stewart is coming off back-to-back 30-pieces and is shooting 44.1 percent from 3 since the Olympics.

A strong week against the Storm on Thursday and the Aces on Sunday would remove any doubt that things are quiet in New York. — Filippou

What is the Fever’s ceiling for the postseason?

A place in the semi-finals is a possibility, as the Fever’s offense is difficult to stop and they have improved defensively.

The Fever have been waiting to return to the postseason since 2016. But once they get past the initial excitement, they can focus on the competition.

Indiana has defeated every team except Las Vegas at least once this season.

Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark have played as well offensively as any guard duo in the league since the Olympics. Lexie Hull has excelled both as a reserve and in the starting lineup over the past three games. Speaking of the bench, experienced post players like Damiris Dantas and Temi Fagbenle have contributed offensively and defensively, making the Fever a deeper team. And Indiana has gained confidence in its ability to close strong in close games.

If they don’t host in the first round, the Fever will need to win one game out of the best-of-three series to have a chance to play in front of their home crowd for a deciding Game 3. That could be quite a spectacle: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, which has been rocking for much of this season even before the Fever got their hot streak going, finally gets a playoff game again. –Voepel

Are the Aces still in contention for a three-peat?

The Aces were heavy favorites to reach the WNBA Finals in 2022 and last season. This year’s road is expected to be more challenging, with a potentially tough first round and an even tougher semifinal (likely against New York).

It’s hard to pinpoint why the Aces aren’t as efficient as they were last year. Gray started the season late (June 19) as she continues to rehab a foot injury she suffered in last season’s WNBA Finals. She had her first double-double of the season (13 points, 10 assists) in Tuesday’s 90-71 win over Chicago.

The core players (Wilson, Gray, Young and Plum) all played on the U.S. Olympic team and have gotten less rest than those on other teams. Hammon has pointed out times when the Aces make mental mistakes on defense that we’re not used to seeing from them. Wilson is used to carrying a heavy workload, but at times she’s had to do just about everything.

Let’s also not forget that the Aces are still the reigning champions. While teams have exposed some of their vulnerabilities this season, the Aces still have a ton of individual talent and experience winning together.

And maybe they can get behind the idea of ​​being “underdogs” — as strange as that sounds — and put the pressure on their playoff opponents. In short: They’re still in the race. –Voepel