NEW YORK — On Friday, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will play one of the biggest matches of their careers under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium, the semifinals of the US Open.

Both Fritz, the 12th seed, and Tiafoe, the 20th seed, are trying to reach their first major final.

And the match isn’t just a big deal for them as individuals. Their meeting marks the first semifinals at the tournament involving two American men since 2005, and it guarantees an American man a Grand Slam final for the first time since 2009 and the first time at the US Open since 2006.

With so much at stake and both hoping to make their own history in front of a home crowd of 24,000 fans, Friday should be as electric and memorable a matchup as they come. The two are longtime friends, having played against each other — and are being called two of the country’s most promising young stars — since their early teens.

They know each other’s game very well.

“Taylor and I had a conversation about how we were 1-2 Americans for a long time,” Tiafoe said after his quarterfinal match. “I remember a couple years ago we were on a plane, and you know, he’s a pretty private guy, and he was like, ‘Bro, I think you and I are going to be 1-2 Americans and lead the way…’

“I think we’ve always pushed each other. Now I’m excited that we get to compete in such a big match, and I’m happy for him. I know he’s happy for me. Let the best man win when it’s Friday. It’s going to be epic. Popcorn, do what you gotta do. It’s going to be fun when it’s Friday.”

While the semi-final could go either way (make sure you have your popcorn ready), we’ll explain why both players have a shot at winning, and give you a prediction of how it could end.

The plea for Fritz

History is certainly on Fritz’s side. The two have played seven times on tour and Fritz has won their six previous meetings, most recently in the quarterfinals in Acapulco last season. And not only has Fritz, 26, won those matches, he has won four in straight sets, including in their only major clash at the 2022 Australian Open.

Tiafoe’s only victory came more than eight years ago, during the first round at Indian Wells in 2016. So it’s been a while, but Fritz clearly has an advantage in this match.

Fritz also showed incredible mental strength during his run in New York, and he had perhaps the toughest road of any remaining player to the last four. His second-round opponent was 2021 Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini, but he won in straight sets. In the fourth round, he fought back after losing the first set to three-time major finalist Casper Ruud 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.

He was playing in the fourth Slam quarterfinal of his career and had never reached a semifinal before. He held off two-time Slam finalist Alexander Zverev in a fourth-set tiebreak to claim a breakthrough victory. He has managed to keep his nerve and is consistently playing his best tennis, even as the attention and pressure continues to mount.

“You know, it’s cool that I’m in the semifinals, but I really have the mentality of, you know, the job’s not done yet,” Fritz said Tuesday before he knew who his next opponent would be. “I’m just going to take it one match at a time, like I’m totally into the tournament, and I’m focused on the next match that’s ahead of me.”

Fritz’s serve has arguably been his most valuable weapon over the past two weeks, with a first-serve win rate of 83% — tied for the best among men in the tournament — and he’s had just 17 break points in his five matches. Not to mention, he’s been able to use his big serve in key moments and will no doubt look to do the same against Tiafoe.

The plea for Tiafoe

The 26-year-old Tiafoe has played all but one match against Ashe at the 2024 US Open. After beating Ben Shelton in a thrilling five-set match 4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3, he shouted in the third round, “This is my f—ing house!”

And, well, he’s kind of right. Perhaps no one has charmed the crowd and capitalized on the stadium support as much in recent years as Tiafoe — even in matches where he was the clear underdog. In 2022, he defeated Rafael Nadal in four sets on court in the round of 16, cementing his status as a fan favorite and energetic showman.

Although Tiafoe has struggled at times this year, he has found his rhythm and results during the hard-court summer season. After skipping the Olympics to focus on the surface and his preferred major, Tiafoe has gone 14-4 to reach the final at the last warm-up event in Cincinnati, and had a semifinal appearance at his hometown Citi Open earlier in August. Although he has not faced the same caliber of opponent as Fritz in New York, he has won against top-20 players Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune in the past month.

A dynamic player and a real shooter, Tiafoe does not believe his previous encounters with Fritz will affect the outcome of Friday’s match, when the stakes are higher than ever.

“It’s different on Ashe, man. It’s different,” Tiafoe said. “Obviously you have to learn from those (previous games). You know, I mean, a couple of them I thought I should have won …

“It’s going to be a big game for both of us, playing for a final. I don’t think those games are anywhere close to what this game would be, so it’s hard to go off of that. Playing quarterfinals at Acapulco 500 and semifinals at Arthur Ashe at night — well, hopefully at night — it’s a little bit different.”

Okay, so who’s actually going to win?

It’s safe to say that nerves will definitely be a factor for both players. It’s a huge opportunity for both of them, and they won’t be able to forget the moment or what’s at stake. In many ways, it may just come down to who can keep those emotions in check the best, especially early on. Since they’re both Americans, every point — regardless of who wins it — will likely be met with cheers, and while they’ll certainly be loud throughout the game, it may be less of a factor than it has been in other games.

All the signs point to Fritz winning this. Their head-to-head record backs that up, and his resume at this tournament is much stronger. But it’s hard to think anyone wants this more than Tiafoe, and he’s been laser-focused on his main goal for most of the year: US Open glory. He’s peaking at just the right time.

“It’s almost a joke that Frances wakes up in August,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

While Tiafoe’s opponents aren’t nearly as experienced or tough as those Fritz has faced, he’s had some fights — most notably against Shelton in the third round — and has continued to find a way to win. Playing in his second major semifinal, he knows what to expect and the emotions that come with it. It may not be practical, but this feels like Tiafoe’s game to lose.

Tiafoe in five sets. As he said earlier in the tournament: “Why not?”