There are a few big games involving Group of 5 teams in Week 5, and one of the biggest games is a Mountain West matchup between the Fresno State Bulldogs and UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas. Both teams are certainly contenders to challenge Boise State for the Mountain West title, and this game promises to be a fantastic back-and-forth affair. That said, the Rebels are a bit overrated in this match due to their previous results this season.

UNLV has already knocked off a pair of Big 12 teams in Houston and Kansas, giving the Rebels two of the most impressive non-conference wins for a Group 5 team this season. While the win over the Cougars was certainly legitimate, UNLV had at further investigation probably should lose to Kansas. After all, Kansas outgained the Rebels by almost 100 yards and the Jayhawks also lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a game where they averaged 6 yards per play. On the other hand, Fresno State was able to put up a real fight in the Big House against Michigan in Week 1 and the Bulldogs definitely deserved to cover the numbers in that game. Since then, the Bulldogs have won three straight games in convincing fashion and enter this game with a 3-1 record against the spread. Mikey Keene has been efficient lately, throwing three touchdowns and not turning the ball over the past few games. If he can avoid the turnover on Saturday, the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball through the air in this one.

Despite head coach Jeff Tedford retiring this summer, the Fresno State program is as strong as ever. This is still a fundamentally sound football team with one of the best defenses in the Group of 5 (12th in net points per drive, 12th in 3rd down success rate), and they should force UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka to make mistakes similar to he. against Kansas. In that game, Sluka came away with some turnover-worthy throws and even a few costly fumbles recovered by his teammates on offense. Unlike their previous opponents, however, this Bulldogs team will make UNLV pay for those mistakes. This is a game that comes down to the last few possessions, so I’m happy to take on the underdog against a team that gets a lot of credit in the market for just one result. Let’s take Fresno State +4.5 as my prediction for this game.

Fresno State vs. UNLV prediction: Fresno State +4.5 available at time of publication. Playable up to 3.5

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